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– We sound the alarm and say it’s a very real possibility, says the man behind a new prediction model.
It is very likely that Donald Trump could appear as the winner of the presidential election on the day of the election, even if he is victorious when absolutely all the votes are counted.
So says a democratic analyst at Axios HBO.
Axios writes that many more Democratic voters than Republicans will vote by mail in order to spread the word. It may take days, or even weeks, before all of these mail-in votes are counted.
Also read: He has simulated the presidential election 40,000 times. Here is the result
Assuming that Republicans vote more in person on Election Day on November 3, preliminary election results on Election Day could show a sovereign majority for Trump, both in the so-called popular vote (total number of votes) and the number of electoral votes. It is the number of electoral votes that determines the winner of the election.
“Red air mirror”
But when absolutely all the votes have been counted, including the Democrats’ mail-in votes, victory could tip in the direction of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. The stage is known as a “red air mirror.” Red is known to be the color of the Republicans.
– The reason we are talking about a red air mirror is because we think it might appear that Donald Trump has a better position on Election Day night than he actually does. We sound the alarm and say it is a very real possibility, that the data will show a big win for Donald Trump, Hawkfish CEO Josh Mendelsohn tells Axios.
– When every legitimate vote is counted and we get to the last day, which will be sometime after Election Day, it will turn out that what happened on Election Day was just a mirror of air, Mendelsohn says.
Also read: This model gives Trump very little chance of winning
Hawkfish is far from being a target institute. The company receives financial support from Democrat Michael Bloomberg. Hawkfish also serves on behalf of the Democratic National Committee and superpacs that support Biden.
Prediksjonsmodell
Hawkfish has developed a prediction model of how this scenario can degenerate. Based on the model, it will appear that Trump has an estimated 408 electoral vote lead to Biden’s 130 at the end of Election Day (a candidate must have 270 electoral votes to ensure victory). This could happen if only 15 percent of the votes by mail were counted on Election Day.
As soon as 75 percent of the mail-in votes have been counted, perhaps four days after the actual election day, the administration will be able to lean in favor of Biden, according to the prediction.
This given prediction model predicts that Biden will eventually emerge victorious with 334 electoral votes to 204. The prediction model is based on opinion polls and data taken from the FiveThirtyEight website.
– The winner of the election declares too soon?
The concern, as many Democrats have noted, is that Trump should be able to declare victory before all votes are counted and before the final election result is available.
– We have the Trump campaign that is very smart and let’s see what comes next. So we have the president relaying a message through Twitter messages, election campaign rallies and speeches, a notion that any change in the outcome on Election Day night will be a trap that enters the equation, Mendelsohn says. .
The Trump campaign says the following about prediction models.
“The media must stop predicting the future,” Trump’s campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said in a statement.
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