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New calculations by the Institute of Public Health conclude that after April 20, the reproduction figure for Norway has increased to 0.72.
A week ago, the R figure for Norway was 0.46.
This means that the estimate of how many people are infected per person has increased significantly in recent weeks.
Statistical uncertainty means that the FHI estimates that the 95% sure figure is between 0.44 and 0.99, according to a new FHI report.
Even if the R figure increases, it does not mean that total infection increases in society. But if the level of R rises above 1.0, it means that the infection is out of control and the number of infected increases.
Stop giving daily numbers
There has been great excitement about what happened to the spread of the infection in Norway after the kindergartens reopened on April 20, and students in grades 1-4 were able to return to school on April 27. .
Before kindergartens were opened, the R figure in Norway was estimated by FHI to be 0.66 during the period from March 15 to April 20. In practice, this means that the spread of the infection in Norway stopped only a few days after the country’s closure.
Until last week, when the government reopened Norway, FHI submitted daily estimates for the R figure.
It ended after May 8.
Today’s report is the first to be released in a week. It can be interpreted that it has significantly increased the spread of the infection, but it is still below 1.0.
The government has always emphasized that if the spread of infection increases, it may be necessary to push again.
A previously secretly sealed note, which Aftenposten has obtained, shows that government advisers feared the infection would escalate by opening kindergartens and schools for younger students.
“The measures we have taken to open kindergartens and kindergartens could lead to a certain increase in infection. Preliminary calculations indicate that Oslo will not be able to keep R below 1 when this happens. For the rest of the country, R could be approx. 0.9, ”wrote government adviser Geir Steine-Larsen.
Uncertain estimates
The new R figure that FHI has released today does not necessarily mean that the infection itself has increased in society.
The estimate is based on a complicated model, which takes into account, among other things, the number of hospital admissions, mobile data, and population structure. This means, first and foremost, that FHI now has more data that makes it possible to get a much more secure calculation than it did a week ago.
FHI has previously emphasized that the R 0.46 figure for the post-April 20 period, presented on May 8, was highly uncertain and had a large margin of error.
Since the hospital figures have now been added for another week, the estimate has become more secure. In the report, FHI emphasizes that this means that the spread of the infection has not exceeded 1.0 at any time after Norway’s reopening on April 20.
“There is now no evidence that the breeding number at week 17 was above 1.0,” writes FHI.
Now we travel much more
One of the reasons the R figure is increasing is that data from mobile phones shows that Norwegians’ travel habits are nearing the normal level before March 12.
On Wednesday, May 13, traffic between municipalities was just 15.8 percent below the level before Norway closed on March 12. This measures the number of travelers crossing the municipal boundaries in Norway every day.
When the crown measures were introduced, domestic traffic immediately fell by 60 percent. Since May 8, traffic has been 80 percent of normal every day.
- The people of Oslo and Bærum are the citizens who this week have continued to reduce travel activity by 36.3 and 34 percent, respectively, compared to before the coronavirus arrived.
- Traffic in the rest of the country is less reduced. Bergenserne’s travel activity is 83.6% of normal, while people in Skien, Sandefjord and Fredrikstad are 90%.
What is most concerning?
Although the breeding rate in Norway is still below 1.0, some aspects of development in recent weeks are worrying.
The number of coronary patients in hospitals has remained constant for a week, according to hospital figures. Since some patients have died, while others have been discharged, this means that there are still more newly infected patients.
If the spread of infection in Norway is as low as an R figure of 0.72, the number of admissions should continue to decrease.
Last week’s FHI report shows that the number of new admissions in week 18 and week 19 has been constant.
“Assuming reproduction rates and mobility continue to be low, we estimate that hospital admissions and the number of patients needing respirators will decrease,” FHI writes in the report.
