[ad_1]
Both Kjersti Haugland and Jan Ludvig Andreassen believe that the revised national budget is more like an ordinary message about the use of oil money, and believes that billions should be injected into the Norwegian economy.
Chief Economist Kjersti Haugland at DNB Markets and Chief Economist Jan Ludvig Andreassen at the Eika Group
Photo: Cicilie S. Andersen / E24 and Terje Pedersen / NTB scanpix
published:
“Billions are fast, and that’s natural in the current situation,” chief economist Kjersti Haugland at DNB Markets tells E24.
Figures released by the Ministry of Finance on Tuesday morning show a preliminary use of oil money this year, which corresponds to up to 4.2 percent of the value of the Petroleum Fund, and therefore the use of money is far above what is normally used.
– Now, the use of oil money has increased by 0.3 percentage points since the last update, and there are many billions in itself, she says.
– will fly
Haugland says she is pretty sure the use of oil money will increase further, and Eika Gruppen chief economist Jan Ludvig Andreassen agrees.
– In fact, I think the revised national budget will be exploited. When all the additional packages have been distributed, I’m assuming an oil expense of NOK 450 billion. Because it makes more sense to drink too much than too little, and there are also options next year. If you need to start a car’s engine with starter cables, you must use the power, says Andreassen.
– What will this increase in the use of oil money mean for most people?
– It doesn’t mean anything in the big context. Most importantly, the temporary measures get people back to work quickly. The long-term effect of not doing enough is much worse than the alternative.
Also read
The use of oil money increases dramatically after the crown crisis
More optimistic
Therefore, the chief economist is excited about the details of the budget, which is presented at 10.45. Then it becomes clear what measures are included this time.
In the revised national budget for 2020, continental GDP is projected to fall 4.0% this year, but uncertainty is high, “writes the government.
– This was a bit more fun reading than the latest Norges Bank forecast, Andreassen said.
But he adds that his expectations for 2020 are more in line with the central bank.
Uncertainty
Last week, Norges Bank projected a decline in the mainland economy of 5.2% this year, from a growth estimate of 0.4% as of March 12.
– I believe more in the gloomy forecasts, which are based on the decrease in oil investments of 20-30 percent, among other things.
Haugland also says the Ministry of Finance’s estimates are more optimistic than theirs.
“With the great uncertainty now, one should not exaggerate the differences in this,” says Haugland, adding that no one is likely to present forecasts with great confidence that they will face the current situation.
DNB Markets projects a GDP drop of six percent.
