From week 12 to the entire playoffs, Raheem Mostert’s 760 rushing yards only surpassed the Tennessee Titans who ran 1,154 of Derrick Henry in the NFL in that span.
Henry was rewarded with a four-year, $ 50 million contract Wednesday, which reportedly includes a guaranteed $ 25.5 million and makes him the fifth-highest-paid runner in the league in terms of average annual salary. Naturally, Mostert, who is also seeking a pay raise to the extent that he has demanded an exchange, will also be rewarded. Right?
Incorrect.
In addition to the obvious facts that Henry is almost two years younger than Mostert and has a much larger display of success, the Titans simply could not afford no block your long-term advantage. You can believe in Ryan Tannehill’s revival if you want, but you can’t see him in a vacuum. Henry is the last straw in that offense, and it is no coincidence that Tannehill has had his best season even behind the NFL leader.
Mostert led the 49ers in rushing yards last season, but it’s not as essential to the San Francisco offense as Henry is to Tennessee. For one thing, coach Kyle Shanahan is in favor of a committee-based approach to execution, so you’re likely never to see the 49ers offering a salary similar to what Henry earned. There is also an argument that Mostert’s advance was the product of the Shanahan system, and therefore could be replaceable.
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Not that Mostert doesn’t deserve a raise. It’s just that it’s highly unlikely that you will get exactly what you want because San Francisco has all the leverage. Assuming it’s not traded, you can play for the 49ers or potentially risk losing a cumulative season. And that disparity in leverage doesn’t even include the set of outside options that San Francisco could fill Mostert’s place, whether in the immediate or near future.
Let’s go in chronological order, okay?
If we are operating under the assumption that Mostert will not play under his current contract, nor receive what he considers an acceptable increase, there are some potentially intriguing options in the free agent market. Shanahan implements an out-of-zone execution scheme, so any free agents brought in by the 49ers should probably already be familiar with those concepts.
All the endorsements currently in the free agent market are there for a reason, though. They all have certain blows against them, but it could also be the result of excess supply and lack of demand.
Devonta Freeman’s best seasons certainly seem to be behind him, but it’s worth noting that the two best seasons of his career, in which he made the Pro Bowl both times, came with Shanahan as his offensive coordinator with the Atlanta Falcons. And with whom did you share the backfield during those two seasons? None other than current San Francisco running back Tevin Coleman.
There’s Chris Thompson, who Shanahan surely had something to say in the writing of the fifth round of the 2013 NFL Draft when he was the offensive coordinator for Washington. There’s Isaiah Crowell, who spent his rookie season with Shanahan as his offensive coordinator with the Cleveland Browns. Then there are veterans Lamar Miller, LeSean McCoy, Bilal Powell, and others who may have varying degrees of experience in an outdoor zone system, but might be better equipped to learn on the go.
Again, each of those backs has some negative marks against it. But, as we’ve seen throughout Shanahan’s coaching career, he can do magic with previously ignored players.
That is just the current free agent market. Looking a little further ahead, next year’s free agent class could be absolutely stacked.
The possible RB free agent class of 2021 is 🔥 …. pic.twitter.com/RgEDpEPkVY
– Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 14, 2020
Obviously, you can remove Henry from that list now, but he’s still a collection of great big-name racers. Many of them will surely be re-signed by their starting teams or be franchised, but some will sneak through the cracks. Again, the 49ers are unlikely to take a ton of money for a broker, but that abundance further exasperates the current supply and demand dynamics that are working against Mostert.
While the cost of those 2021 free agent runners could prove prohibitive for San Francisco, the same cannot be said for what is likely to be a loaded 2021 draft class on the job. Travis Etienne of Clemson, Najee Harris of Alabama (a native of the Bay Area), Chuba Hubbard of Oklahoma state and Trey Sermon of Ohio state lead the class. But there is tremendous depth inside, and the 49ers could surely add a talented lap in the middle or in subsequent rounds at a relatively low cost.
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Will Mostert get exactly what he is demanding? It is hard to imagine it developing that way. The odds continue in favor of some sort of compromise, perhaps one that warrants more than Mostert’s salary.
In any case, there are a number of factors that work against Mostert, both today and in the future. You are not wrong to want your salary adjusted to meet your value. But that value depends both on how it performs and how easily it could be replaced.
