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With less than six weeks to go in Week 1 of the NFL regular season, I still have no idea if there will really be Week 1, and even if it happens, I don’t know if there will really be fans and I have no idea who will be in the field because of all the opt out options, but you know what, the incumbent has promised you some choices, so I’ll give you some.
Welcome to our Week 1 picks and bets too early. I’m an optimist, so I’m going to assume Week 1 will be played, so you’ll get these picks. Although 16 games are played in Week 1, I won’t pick all of them here. Instead, I narrowed the season opener pool to three best bets.
So what does that mean exactly?
It means that if I were in Las Vegas during the month of August, the three games below are the games I would absolutely bet on. This is the third year I have made Week 1 early bets, and apparently early bets are the only thing in life I’m really good at. In the past two years, I’ve been 6-0 straight and 5-1 against the spread with my first bets, so you’ll obviously want to write down these bets and call your bookmaker as soon as you’re finished reading .
All right, let’s go to the betting.
NFL Week 1 best bets
All odds through William Hill
Bosses (-10) vs. Texans
If you are thinking of betting this game, I would keep betting now, because there is a good chance that the point differential will only increase between now and Week 1, no matter how many players end up on the Kansas City roster. season. The Chiefs will return 18 of 22 starters in 2020, and that includes the fact that their starting running back and his right guard have already decided to skip the season (Chiefs’ game note: unless Patrick Mahomes or the Kansas City offensive line decides sit outside the season, I won’t bet against the Bosses in this game.)
If you hesitate to bet on the Chiefs as a 10-point favorite here, I totally understand why. In addition to the foreclosure options, there’s also the fact that they were losing 24-0 to the Texans during a playoff game last year, and who can say a disaster like that won’t happen in this game. Actually, I will say: A disaster like that is not going to happen in this game.
The Texans jumped to that big lead because the impossible went in their favor: They had a 54-yard touchdown pass, returned a blocked punt for a touchdown, and recovered a muffled punt on the Kansas City six-yard line to establish another landing. . Last year’s divisional playoff game between these two teams had arguably the weirdest sequence of events in any first quarter in NFL history, and I have to think that the Chiefs will do everything in their power to make sure they don’t happen again.
The Chiefs will want to show that the 24-0 lead was a fluke and I think they will be raising the Texans’ score, which means this game is sure to turn into a shooting, but a one-sided shooting, because the Texans are not going to be able follow the rythm. Houston’s biggest offensive weapon in last season’s playoff game was DeAndre Hopkins and he’s no longer on the team, so Houston has gotten worse as a catcher and they have a runner who can’t stay healthy (David Johnson).
As for the Chiefs, they will enter the first game with an offense that led the AFC to pass yards last season and the Texans will try to stop that with a defense that had no idea how to stop the pass last year (The Texans delivered 267.3 yards per game last season, which was the worst in the AFC and the fourth worst in the NFL.)
Also, Andy Reid is almost unbeatable when he has extra time to prepare for a game, and he will have had the entire offseason to prepare for this one. Not only is he 18-3 coming out of a goodbye, but he’s 9-2 at the start of the season in the past 11 years (7-4 ATS). This game could become the biggest bang of Week 1.
Verdict: Bosses win and cover.
Lions (-1.5) against bears
Last year, one of the easiest ways to make money playing in the NFL was to bet against the Lions. During the last 11 weeks of the season, the Lions were only 2-9 against the spread, which means that if you were betting against them, you probably now live on an island in the Caribbean and have a small fortune in your bank account. I mean, just look at the tweet below, this person’s entire strategy to become a millionaire is based on betting against the Lions.
Normally, I’d say it’s a good strategy, but not this year, and that’s because I really think the Lions could be a winning bet … at least in Week 1.
Due to the fact that the Lions ended the season with a horrible record last season (3-12-1), it’s easy to forget that this team really looked pretty good earlier in the year. For one, they not only started the season 2-0-1, but it cost them a crazy game against the Chiefs before they suffered their first loss (34-30).
With a healthy Matthew Stafford at the center, I think the Lions could end up having one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL in 2020. On the other hand, that’s not a guarantee, because I’m not even entirely sure Stafford wants to play for the team more.
That said, my decision to go for the Lions here is more of a bet against the Bears.
In Week 1, the Bears will be shooting with Nick Foles or Mitchell Trubisky as their starting quarterback. The problem with Foles is that learning a whole new offensive system is not an easy thing to do and it is almost impossible when you have to learn it during a pandemic with just six weeks of practice. Basically if Foles starts I don’t think he’s in complete control of the offense yet. On the other hand, if Trubisky starts, well, let’s be honest, we’ve all seen him play before. If I bet on the Lions, I could actually be supporting Trubisky to get started.
Another thing I don’t like about the Bears is that they have lost six straight starts in the regular season. I’ll bet on the Lions in this game, unless Matthew Stafford decides to stay out of the season, then he might change his mind.
Verdict: The lions win and cover themselves.
Steelers (-3.5) in Giants
If there’s a game in Week 1 that looks like a disaster waiting for the home team, it’s definitely this. On paper, and in real life, this game feels like a total mismatch, and that mostly has to do with the fact that the Giants’ offense has a ton of weaknesses that the Steelers defense is perfectly suited for. to take advantage of.
During the 2019 season, the Giants’ offensive line had serious problems protecting Daniel Jones. The Giants quarterback was fired an average of 3.17 times per start last season, which was third in the NFL. If you’re a Giants fan, that number should concern you, and that’s because New York will face a Steelers defense that led the NFL in sacks last year. Oh, and did I mention that the 2019 Giants’ initial left tackle (Nate Solder) has chosen to exit the 2020 season?
If I knew for sure that New York’s offensive line would be better in 2020, that could change my opinion about betting on the Steelers, but to be honest, their line could be worse in Week 1 than it was in all of last year. . The Giants’ innings for Game 1 will likely be first-round pick Andrew Thomas, who will start his first run, and Nate Solder. Wait, I remember, the Giants will not have Welding, because he decided not to play this season, which means that the Giants will have new headlines in both left and right tackle. There is a 100% chance that TJ Watt’s mouth is already watering.
With the offensive line battling for most of last season, that meant Jones spent much of the year running for his life, and while that was going on, he didn’t do a good job of protecting football. Jones lost the ball 18 times in 12 starts last year, which is not ideal when you face the defense that led the NFL in loose ball recoveries.
This game will also give us a Super Bowl winning coach (Mike Tomlin) against a freshman head coach (Joe Judge) who will have only had four weeks of practice on the field with his team before this game takes place. Advantage: Tomlin.
I’m still not sure if Ben Roethlisberger will be completely healthy for this game, but I’m not sure it will matter. If the Steelers can score 20 points, I think it’s probably enough to win and cover.
Verdict: The Steelers win and cover.
