The signer of the Bucs’ free agent of Tom Brady is the greatest in NFL history. His first act of 20 years in New England included six Super Bowl victories and 11 consecutive AFC East titles. Now he joins a franchise whose most recent playoff appearance was during the George W. Bush administration, and whose last post-season victory was Super Bowl XXXVII, 18 seasons ago. Can Brady single-handedly reverse the fortunes of Tampa Bay?
Brady has said he will run Bruce Ariansis a crime, instead of the coach changing the system. In New England, Brady often made quick throws, but Arians prefer to get the ball underfield and typically use all five eligible receivers, who will expose Brady to the pass rush. Offensive line play will be critical, especially considering the inconsistent play of the first five last year. One plus: the Tampa Bay receivers are far more than the Patriots had in 2019. Mike Evans en Chris Godwin are All-Pro caliber, and, oh yes, Rob Gronkowski has returned to join an already deep group of close ends.
Tampa Bay’s biggest roadblock to a division title is the Saints, who come from 13-win back-to-back seasons and have the most complete team in the division. Drew Brees has mastered her past game for ball control, and last year WR Michael Thomas had an NFL record of 149 catches, despite the fact that every opponent knew the ball was coming his way. The availability of RB Alvin Kamara, who was lost last year due to ankle and knee injuries, will make the New Orleans offensive even more dangerous; Sean Payton keeps Thomas and Kamara on the same side of the formation tuned in to prevent defenses from doubling one of these. The Saints treat a weakness in the secondary by adding Malcolm Jenkins to an already deep and talented group of safetys, and cornerback Janoris Jenkins, a midday pickup last year.
Could the Falcons be New Orleans’ most dangerous challenger? Last year, Atlanta rode for a 6-2 finish after a 1-7 start, coach saves Dan Quinnhis job. That run was fueled by a staggering turnaround on defense: After allowing an average of 31.3 points over the first eight games of the season, the Falcons gave up just 18.6 over the last eight. The misdemeanor has a pedigree for a big year – all 11 projected starters (including new RB Todd Gurley) were first-round picks.
The Panthers pulled the plug on the most successful era of their franchise. Away are former MVP Cam Newton (released and signed by the Patriots), two-time Coach of the Year Ron Rivera (fired, hired by Washington) and two-time Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly (retired). Not a coach Matt Rhule makes the leap to the NFL after running successful recycling projects at Temple and Baylor. Free agent QB Teddy Bridgewater re-establishes his relationship with offensive coordinator for first year Joe Brady, The LSU play-caller last year and an assistant with the Saints the year before. The attack will still revolve around RB Christian McCaffrey. The question is what will the defense look like; Carolina has spent all seven of its draft picks in 2020 on that side of the ball.
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NEW ORLEAN SAINTS
PROJECT RECORD: 12-4
BEST-FALL SCENARIO: Continuity and pure talent work in the Saints’ favor as they dominate the division for a fourth straight season and grab the NFC top seed. The lone post of getting the conference proof proves keeping Brees fresh for a deep playoff run. New Orleans finished 10-0 at the Superdome en route to a Super Bowl return.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: The window of opportunity closes when the Saints least expected it, as Brees’ arm strength, now in its 20th season, drops to Peyton Manning’s levels in 2015. The defense stops, but after struggling to claim a playoff spot, New Orleans is soon to be announced, a one-and-done for a second consecutive January.
ATLANTA FALCONS
PROJECT RECORD: 10-6
BEST-FALL SCENARIO: The Falcons pick up on where they left off in 2019, starting 7-2 before going to the Saints of Bucs. The offense hums, with Gurley repaying the All-Pro form. But it’s the defense, with sign with free agent Dante Fowler rushing from the edge, that steps Atlanta into the playoffs.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: The second half of last year proved to be a mirror image, and the inexplicable battle at home (12-12 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium since it opened) continues. The Falcons waved through the early part of their schedule before pummeling into the strip, when they played New Orleans and Tampa Bay twice and traveled to Kansas City.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
PROJECT RECORD: 9-7
BEST-FALL SCENARIO: All the shame about his pandemic workouts was worth it to Brady; the new-look Bucs hit the ground running in September. He thrives with weapons he could only dream of last year, showing off his still impressive arm with deep shoes, made possible by an improved O-line that gives him plenty of time. Tampa Bay has won its first division title since 2007.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: The pandemic makes it difficult for Brady to acclimatize to the new system and supporting cast, and the misunderstanding never comes together. Brady’s frustrated body language becomes a topic of conversation (and, for many, source of fun) around the league. Not even a soft schedule of late season does Brady hold out to watch the playoffs on TV.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
PROJECT RECORD: 2-14
BEST-FALL SCENARIO: No one knows what to expect from a franchise that has been built from top to bottom, and that unpredictability plays out in favor of the Panthers all year long, as they prove to be a stubborn out. Brady is constantly haunted after working his magic with Bridgewater, while Rhule’s retooled and rookie-laden defense shows promise as Carolina scrapes seven wins.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Carolina just does not have the horses to compete with, especially in a division that stacks these. After not making an offensive player last spring, the Panthers broke that streak by choosing Trevor Lawrence with the first overall pick of the 2021 draft.
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