The NFL is full of parity. The NFC East is not. No other division has such a sharp contrast between the haves and hat-nots: The Eagles and Cowboys go into the year with Super Bowl aspirations, while the Giants and Washington remain in rebuilding mode.
But while this season will repeat last year’s two-team race, neither Philadelphia nor Dallas will be hitting the .500 mark again in late December. The Eagles limped through the second half of 2019 as well Carson Wentz wore an injury-riedled receiving corps that was, if not the worst of the league, at least the slowest. But this year, Philly will have a verified 4×100 relay of new receivers (even after actual Olympic track star Marquise Goodwin opted for it). Philly drafted speedsters Jalen Reagor (first round) and John Hightower (fifth) and expect to get a healthy back DeSean Jackson. Meanwhile, the defense has a new no. 1 cornerback in free agent Darius Slay, who will look even better in Philadelphia than he did behind the Lions’ non-existent pass rush.
In Dallas, Mike McCarthy takes over as coach after another season in which the record (8-8) was less than the sum of the parts of the team. McCarthy will rely on offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, a holdover from Garrett’s staff, to get another big year out of Quarterback Dak Prescott. The receiving corps should be even stronger, with first-round pick-up CeeDee Lamb participate in 1000-yard receivers Amari Cooper en Michael Gallup. Cooper, who had big numbers but saw from the sidelines when the last drive came in a must-win game at Philadelphia short, needs to stay healthy and consider himself a real no. Establish 1 receiver. But throw in RB Ezekiel Elliott and a line strong enough to withstand the retirement of center Travis Frederick, and the offense should be one of the NFL’s best. The defense, however, will have to warm up a big transition. McCarthy brought in veteran defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, whose arrangements are intricately complex, to run a unit that lost top cornerback Byron Jones and outscored rusher Robert Quinn in free agency.
As for the ekrans, both have new coaches – student Bill Belichick Joe Judge in New York and longtime Panthers coach Ron Rivera in Washington – and Quarterbacks in the second year. Daniel Jones is ahead of pick-up for first-round of 2019 Dwayne Haskins in Washington, and the new Giants offensive coordinator, ex-Cowboys coach Jason Garrett, will now oversee its development. New York’s ongoing investment in the offensive line (including the fourth pick, tackles Andrew Thomas from Georgia) and the presence of RB Saquon Barkley means the Giants need to score points. But Jones’ tendency to hang in the bag for too long often results in strip bags, plus a defense that lacks identity, knocks her over.
In Washington, a green Haskins and a shortage of passing game weapons out there Terry McLaurin means that the offender will rely on a running attack let through Adrian Peterson. Defensive unit Chase Young, the general choice of the concept no. 2, adds to an already potential pass rush, but the team has questions at linebacker and in the secondary. If Washington wins, it will win ugly.
* * *
Subscribe to the MMQB NFL Podcast where you can get your shows …
* * *
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
PROJECT RECORD: 11-5
BEST-FALL SCENARIO: All additions at receiver rejuvenate the passing game for downfield, and Wentz turns into an MVP-caliber season. Slay shuts down opponents’ No. 1 receivers while another free agent addition, DT Javon Hargrave, adds juice to the top four, as the Eagles look a lot like the 2017 edition.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: The injury error strikes again. Wentz goes down as he did in 2017 and ’18, and selection of second round Jalen Hurts is not ready for prime time. The pass rush – especially DE Brandon Graham, 32, and DT Fletcher Cox, 29 – shows his age, and a blitz-heavy schedule allows for too many great plays. In competitive NFC, Philly just missed the playoffs.
DALLAS COWBOYS
PROJECT RECORD: 10-6
BEST-FALL SCENARIO: With the addition of Lamb and the emergence of a healthy (and consistent) Cooper, Prescott delivers MVP level numbers. Nolan’s system generates a pass rush through its creative Blitz packages, and Demarcus Lawrence delivers a defensive player of the year campaign as the Cowboys take the division.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: The crime again sets up playful stats, but (again) shrinks at the greatest moments. While Lawrence continues to dominate, the changes to a defense that also replaces key starters are too much to handle, especially with the shortened offseason. McCarthy finds himself on the hot seat after his first season.
NEW YORK GIANTS
PROJECT RECORD: 4-12
BEST-FALL SCENARIO: Jones takes the next step in his second season under Garrett, and a balanced and efficient offense takes some of the heat from the defense. Meanwhile, a smoke-and-mirror approach by those D lets them transmit, making the Giants a tough exit. They fall short of the playoffs, but the 8-8 campaign inspires confidence.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: Jones, who had 18 fumbles in 13 games last season, breaks the NFL record of 23 this year. The turnover margin is too much to overcome for a team whose offense lacks big weapons at receiver and whose defense is struggling to get stops. GM Dave Gettlemanthe seat is scoring come Christmas time.
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
PROJECT RECORD: 3-13
BEST-FALL SCENARIO: Rivera brings the franchise a sense of stability, and Young turns a Defensive Player of the Year-type season into a rookie as the pass rush covers for a shaky cornerbacking group. Peterson leads a ball-controlling offense, takes the pressure off Haskins and keeps opposing offenses off the field.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: The Washington offense ranks in the bottom five of every major category. The defense has its moments, but with too many holes of its own it is not strong enough to carry the team. Washington decides to scrap its latest QB plan and start over – they miss the no. 1 general choice and thus an opportunity for Trevor Lawrence, but the front office will spend concept season debating North Dakota State’s Trey Lance and Ohio State’s Justin Fields.
.
