Not according to James Altucher, a best-selling author and former hedge-fund manager, who says New York City is “dead forever” because its residents face the reality of the coronavirus pandemic and what it means. for the fate of the Great Apple.
‘I love NYC. When I first moved to NYC, it was a dream come true. Every corner was like a theatrical production that happened right in front of me. So much personality, so many stories, ”he wrote in a blog post, explaining why his temporary move could become permanent.
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‘I do not benefit from any of this. I love NYC. I was born there. I have lived there forever. I still live there. I love everything about NYC. I want 2019 back. But this time is different. ‘
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Altucher is obviously not alone. The New York Times posed the “painful” question back in June: “Is New York City worth it more?” amid a mass exodus of an estimated 420,000 inhabitants between March and May, when the coronavirus really blew up.
In July, there were a record 13,117 vacant apartments across Manhattan, according to a report by Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants. A year ago, that number was 5,912. Also, new signatures on lease fell by about 23%, resulting in a drop in rental rates.
To be honest, New York may feel the deepest impact, but several cities have been hit hard. Take a look at San Francisco’s compelling statistics, for example:
As for the Times story, along with the gloom, there was also a message of hope from diehards who believed that New York’s history of “flight and rebellion” would repeat itself.
“These times of crisis, when things get tough in the city, it’s where I want to be, it’s where my neighbors are,” one local photographer told the paper. “I’ve been walking and exploring, and the city is becoming even more fascinating at a time like this.”
But Altucher does not see it that way. Will the city return? “No. Not this time.” Will it remain the center of the financial universe? “Not this time.” New York has experienced worse? “It did not.”
He pointed out several reasons why this time is different.
First, the city center is empty. Even though people may be allowed to work back, they are not, he said, citing the fact that the Time-Life building is almost an entire ghost town.
“Companies have realized they don’t need their employees in the office,” said Altucher, who is now in South Florida. “They realize they’re even more productive with everyone at home.”
Then there is the culture, as lack of it these days. He specifically mentioned Broadway and its plans to open one version of itself early next year.
‘But is that true? We just do not know. And what does that mean? And will it only need 25% capacity? Said Altucher. “Broadway shows can’t survive with that! And will artists, writers, producers, investors, lenders, performing arts, landlords, etc. wait a year? ”
What about the foodie scene?
“My favorite restaurant is completely closed. OK, let’s go to my second favorite. For well closed. Third favorite, closed to the good, ”he wrote. ‘I thought the PPP was helpful. No? What about emergency aid? No. Stimulus controls? Unemployment? No and no. OK, my fourth favorite, or what about that place where I always ordered delivery? No and no. ”
The data supports it. According to Yelp, 60% of restaurants in the US are closed for good. Altucher sets that percentage much higher for New York City.
“What happens to all the employees who work at these restaurants? They are gone. They left New York City. Where did they go? ‘he wrote in his blog post. “I know a lot of people who go to Maine, Vermont, Tennessee, upstate, Indiana, and so on. Went back to live with their parents or live with friends or live cheaper. They are gone and gone forever. ”
He then went into the death of the commercial real estate market and how online learning will keep college students out of the city as two other contributing factors in the death of the city.
‘This time is different. You should never say that, but this time it’s true. “If you believe this time is no different, that NYC is resilient, I hope you are right,” he said. ‘I do not benefit from any of this. I love NYC. I was born there. I have lived there forever. I still live there. I love everything about NYC. I want 2019 back. But this time is different. ”
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