NEW YORK, Aug 21 (Reuters) – New York City, once an epicenter of the new coronavirus outbreak, has managed to contain the virus when it reopens, but faces risks of an uptick in cases in the fall, public health experts told Reuters.
The city’s success comes from a mix of high rates of compliance with local and federal public health guidance as well as substantial immunity among the general population, a result of the severity of the outbreak in March and April, according to public health experts based in New York City.
“There was an agreement in New York with the state government, the health care system and the media on what to do – namely shut everything down,” said Mark Jarrett, chief quality officer at Northwell Health. “The lockdown did not please everyone, but was really well accepted.”
This is in contrast to other parts of the country, where political opposition to wearing masks and lockdowns is widespread, Jarrett added.
The rate of infection also dropped faster because the initial outbreak left between 25% and 50% of New Yorkers with some immunity levels, said Maria Lima, associate dean for research at the City University of New York School of Medicine.
New York is in danger of an uptick in cases when schools reopen and cold weather pushes more people inside, experts said.
“The big challenge is re-opening schools, re-creating this density,” which was reduced by social distance, said Troy Tassier, a professor of economics at Fordham University who specializes in epidemiology.
After peaking in early April on an average of seven days of more than 5,000 cases per day, New York City has reduced its daily case count to an average of less than 200, according to city data.
The percentage of people tested that showed that the virus went from around 70% in March to less than 1%, and confirmed deaths have decreased from more than 500 per day in April to the low single figures.
The United States continues to struggle to contain the virus, clocking in at 45,000 cases a day. A total of 5.5 million cases were reported and more than 170,000 people died. (Report by Carl O’Donnell in New York; Edited by Daniel Wallis)
