A bit of good news for President Trump came Monday night. A new poll shows him leading former vice president Joe Biden in Arizona by about a point-and-a-half just 85 days before the election. The state-wide poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group, a Republican polling station, has Trump ahead, 46.2% to 44.8%.
The president had fallen behind his challenger in the once-reliable red state, but has diverted Biden’s lead to within the margin of error in the polling average RealClearPolitics, which now places the presumptive Democratic nominee for Trump by just 2.2 points. .
Another poll in Arizona was also released on Monday, this by OH Predictive Insights, showing Biden up 49% to 45% among registered voters. But it was the third poll by that company to show that the president is shrinking the deficit. In May, the same company found that Trump was chasing seven points.
“Arizona has absolutely earned its battlefield status,” OH Predictive Insights investigator Mike Noble told a local news agency when the latest poll numbers were released.
The handball pattern can be heard by Republicans, although the general trend lines still concern the party loyalists. Trump and Hillary Clinton were in Arizona for most of the 2016 election in the neck and neck, and the GOP standard bearer fell only short – and barely – a few weeks before the election. He beat the state by 3.5 percentage points.
It was an important part of his historic upheaval. It was also expected – President Bill Clinton was the last Democrat to run the state, winning it in 1996 while cross-voting. Since then, Arizona has remained just beyond the reach of Democrats.
But they are more optimistic this year. Introduced Senator Martha McSally has hit the hole against her Democratic challenger, former NASA astronaut Mark Kelly. Average of RCP lets Kelly lead by seven points.
These numbers reflect recent political heatwaves generated in the Grand Canyon State. When Trump praised Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey during a recent visit to the White House to provide a coronavirus ‘model in applying a scientific approach to the declining cases and hospitalizations without implementing a criminal lockdown,’ Biden went on the offensive.
“Gov. Ducey advised reopening without adequate tests and traces of contacts, ‘Vice President tweeted last Friday, adding that the governor withheld “support for increased testing” while “refusing to implement a mask mandate” and in the process “turned his back on older Americans and those at greater risk.”
More specifically, Biden Ducey (pictured) pitched for a statewide infection rate “of nearly 20%.” The mayor challenge that number, claims that “percent positive [has dropped to] between 9-11% for the first time since May. When he restored Biden’s standard expression of astonishment, he said, ‘Come on, man. … the last thing we need is another politician rooting for the virus because it helps their politics. We have had enough of it. ”
The entire exchange, like most of the 2020 election cycle, was found online. The Trump campaign visited Arizona four times before the last election. As the pandemic continues, however, the president and his opponent have had to do pretty much all of their messaging.
While the White House is struggling to contain the pandemic, the Biden election card remains. At a Monday press conference, Trump expressed a strong belief that a fax machine would be in production by the end of the year. But that desire is up against a persistent virus and the accompanying recession.
Trump now bids Biden by 6.9 points in the RCP national average, compared to a 7.7-point deficit against Clinton at the moment in 2016. “I’m not a big believer in interviews,” he added. the White House letter room. “If I were, I think I would not be standing here now.”
The Trafalgar poll of 1,013 likely voters, conducted on August 5-8, has an error margin of plus or minus 2.99 percentage points. The OH Predictive Insights survey of 603 registered voters, conducted on August 3-4, has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
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