New Forecast Predicts 180,000 US Deaths USA By COVID-19 for …

(Updates with new death forecast)

By Jonathan Allen and Peter Szekely

June 24 (Reuters) – The University of Washington on Wednesday forecast nearly 180,000 deaths in the United States. USA By COVID-19 by October 1, as the cases showed new signs of increase and the governors of three northeastern states ordered travelers from other parts of the country to be quarantined. Arrival for 14 days.

The prediction from the school’s Institute for Health Assessment and Metrics includes a warning that deaths from the virus could drop to 146,000 if 95% of Americans wore masks.

“There is no doubt that even as states open, the United States is still dealing with a major epidemic on a course that will increase from the end of August and intensify in September,” said IHME Director Christopher Murray in a release.

The new forecast was released just hours after the governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut said they would require visitors from nine other states with higher rates of coronavirus infections to be quarantined for two weeks upon arrival.

Speaking at a joint video news conference, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said the difficult new order was “the smart thing” after the United States recorded its second-largest increase in COVID-19 cases since early March.

“We have taken our people, all three of these three states, through hell and back, and the last thing we have to do now is subject our people to another round,” Murphy said.

There were nearly 36,000 positive tests for COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by coronavirus, across the country on Tuesday, according to a Reuters count.


The states subject to the 14-day quarantine are Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Washington and Utah, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said in a briefing.

The new quarantine order also applies to residents of three states returning from selected states, which will be determined by the number of new cases per 100,000 people or the percentage of positive results, Cuomo said.

Visitors who violate the order, which takes effect after midnight, could face fines of $ 1,000 for the first violation and $ 5,000 for repeated offenses, he said.

While the United States appears to have halted the outbreak in May and states have lifted drastic measures, evidence suggests that the virus is moving to rural areas and other places that were not initially as affected.

The virus is also renewing its surge in states that opened early to ease the devastating effect of restrictions on local economies.

Florida, one of the first states to reopen, experienced a record increase of more than 5,500 new cases on Wednesday. Oklahoma, which never ordered a statewide shutdown, released new record cases Wednesday for the sixth time this month. South Carolina posted a record increase in cases on Wednesday for the seventh time in June. On Tuesday, Arizona, California, Mississippi and Nevada had record increases. Texas set a record high on Monday.

The increase in cases across the country on Tuesday was the highest since a record 36,426 new infections on April 24.

While some of the higher numbers of cases can be attributed to more tests, the percentage of positive results is also increasing.

The average number of tests has increased 7.6% in the last seven days, according to data from the COVID Follow-up Project, while the average number of new cases increased 30%.

At least four states average double-digit rates of positive tests for the virus, like Arizona, at 20%. By contrast, New York has reported positive test rates of around 1%.

The European Union hopes to reopen the borders starting in July, but will review each country’s COVID-19 situation biweekly, according to diplomats and a document that establishes criteria that could keep Americans and Russians away. (Open in an external browser for a Reuters interactive)

(Reporting by Jonathan Allen and Peter Szekely in New York; Additional reporting by Susan Heavey in Washington and Steve Gorman and Dan Whitcomb in Los Angeles; Writing by Sonya Hepinstall and Dan Whitcomb; Lisa Shumaker Edition)

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