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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 21: People wear protective face masks outside the Metropolitan Museum of Art as the city reopens Phase 4 following restrictions imposed to slow the spread of coronavirus on August 21, 2020 in New York City . The fourth phase features outdoor art and entertainment, sporting events without fans and media production. (Photo by Noam Galai / Getty Images)
Another 134,000 people could die in the US from Covid-19 in December if no further security measures are mandated – and the actual number would probably be much less if mandates were relaxed, researchers say.
The projection by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation of the University of Washington comes with a silver lining: About 70,000 of those lives would be saved if many more Americans wore masks, said the leader of the institute.
“It really depends on what our leaders do, (both) as individuals, and what governments do,” IHME chief Dr. Chris Murray told CNN’s Anderson Cooper on Friday night.
At least 176,000 people have died from Covid-19 in the U.S. since the pandemic began, and more than 5.6 million have been infected, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
IHME projected that if nothing changed about the nation’s approach to prevention, death rates would plummet in September, but rise later in the fall, reaching a total of about 310,000 by December 1st.
But changes in behavior would affect the projection, he said:
• If governments could ease current social distancing restrictions and mask mandates, daily deaths could reach 6,000 by December, up to its current forecast of 2,000 daily, Murray said.
• On the other hand, if significantly more people wore masks, the projection of total deaths from now until December would drop by nearly 70,000, he said. About 95% of the U.S. population would have to wear masks to make that happen, he said.
Coronavirus rates have been falling for weeks in parts of the US, but death rates have been relatively high.
The country’s average of seven days for daily coronavirus deaths was on Friday 987 – the first time in more than three weeks that it had fallen below 1,000, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
Daily U.S. cases over the past week averaged about 44,100 per Friday, down from a peak average of 67,317 on July 22, data from John Hopkins show.
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield said earlier this week that he expects deaths to begin declining by next week as a result of ongoing mitigation measures.
Another wave occurred
The CDC director expressed concern that although parts of the country are reporting improvement in new cases, states in Central America such as Nebraska and Oklahoma appear to be “stuck” and cases are not falling.
“We don’t have to have a third wave in the heartland right now,” Redfield said Thursday. “We need to prevent that.”
Getting security measures in place is now crucial, Murray said, before the fall turns around, when health officials predicted the U.S. would have a recurrence of coronavirus cases during flu season. Redfield has previously said that this fall and winter are likely to be one of the “hardest times” in American public health.
On Friday, the top health official for Seattle and King County in Washington warned the state saw an increased number of cases linked to social gatherings.
“We expect that Covid-19 will decrease in the fall and winter and allow people to spend more time indoors,” said health officer Dr. Jeffrey Duchin.
To help prevent widespread infections, Murray said administrators should place mask mandates – mandates “with teeth” – that allow local authorities to find residents without a face mask.
“It will take a concerted effort, but the impact is extraordinary. It is actually quite extraordinary what it could achieve,” Murray said.
6-year-old is the youngest Covid-19 victim in Florida
In Florida, a 6-year-old girl became the youngest person in the state to die from coronavirus complications. Health officials say they do not yet know if the child contracted the virus from a known cause or if it was travel-related.
The report of her death comes just weeks after 9-year-old Kimora “Kimmie” Lynum, who had no known underlying health conditions, died of coronavirus complications in Florida.
Florida has reported more than 593,000 infections since the beginning of the pandemic, second only to California, which recorded 660,000 positive results.
The girl’s death comes as schools in the US are reopened. Some have adjusted plans after hundreds of students and staff were asked to quarantine in response to cases of coronavirus.
A Florida judge is expected to rule next week on whether schools should reopen with classes in person. That stems from a lawsuit filed by a union of Florida teachers that wants the state to stop requiring schools to reopen five days a week for instruction.
More than two dozen cases linked to motorcycle rally
Meanwhile, more than two dozen cases of the virus in three states are now linked back to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, an annual gathering that normally draws about half a million people.
Minnesota reported 15 cases of the virus among people attending the rally in South Dakota earlier this month, said Kris Ehresmann, director of infectious disease at the Minnesota Department of Health.
Among those cases, one person was hospitalized. Officials say they expect more cases in the coming days.
In the Panhandle region of Nebraska, at least seven cases were linked to the rally, according to Kim Engel, director of the Panhandle Public Health District.
And earlier this week, South Dakota officials announced a person working at a tattoo parlor in Sturgis tested positive for the virus and could have exposed others during the incident. Officials also said a person who spent hours at a bar tested positive during the rally.
Universities are struggling to keep up
Across the country, students are making their way back to university campuses. Despite safety measures in place, universities in at least 15 states have reported cases of coronavirus, many of which are traced to meetings as well as athletics. Many institutions have already announced that they will begin the semester remotely.
In Florida, university officials already identify Covid-19 cases as students being transferred into dorms, according to data from Florida universities.
On Friday, the University of Miami reported that four students in its Hecht Residential College tested positive for Covid-19, officials said on the university’s Covid-19 website. Those students, and several others “who showed symptoms,” were immediately removed from their floors and are in isolation, officials said.
Florida State University in Tallahassee has now “created a rapid COVID-19 test lab that runs results in 24 hours” and its own contact assessment team, FSU spokeswoman Amy Farnum Patronis told CNN.
At Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton, students began moving in campus dorms on a stacked schedule with designated hours to promote social distance.
Mark and Kari Thronson from San Antonio, Texas, helped their newborn son Tyler into his bedroom on Friday. Kari Thronson told CNN’s Natasha Chen that she felt comforted by the university protocols in place for her safety.
“I think it’s everywhere. I think there’s no hiding it. I think just protecting yourself is the best thing you can do,” said Kari Thronson.
Evania Lauscar, a freshman at the Atlantic Ocean in Florida who hopes to one day become a doctor, said she would debate in July if she would actually come on campus.
“I thought what if I move in there, and probably tell them a week or two later to go home? But I said to myself that I really want to be here and I want to see this experience sort of, so far it has been good, but it’s still a thought in my back, “Lauscar said.
Both Tyler Thronson and Lauscar said they have one course where they have to attend in person while the rest of the classes are kept at a distance.
At other schools where students are relocated, university officials work to limit large group meetings.
Incoming students at Northeastern University in Boston will have to find another school if they do not agree to follow the university’s social gathering guidelines, according to a letter published Saturday on the school’s website.
New students who say they plan to host or attend parties will have withdrawn their offer of admission, according to a letter from Madeleine Estabrook, the university’s senior vice chancellor for student affairs. Current students can expect to be removed from the university community, including the immediate loss of university housing, the letter said.
The university said it learned earlier this week that several students on social media are expressing their intention to gather and party in large groups.
Syracuse University in New York gave interim suspensions to 23 students after a large number of students gathered on campus quad Wednesday night, according to a letter from Dean of Students Marianne Thomson and Chief Public Officer Bobby Maldonado.
Three tens of thousands of Purdue University students were arrested this week for attending a party on campus, in violation of the school’s social distance rules.
Other colleges have already reversed plans for person classes and returned to distance learning after cases of coronaviruses were discovered on campus, leading to quarantines.
The University of Notre Dame in Indiana announced Tuesday that undergraduates would be learning remotely for the next two weeks following a spike in Covid-19 cases since students returned to campus on Aug. 3. Since August 3, 372 students have tested positive, according to Notre Dame’s online health dashboard.
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