WASHINGTON – U.S. voters are significantly less confident in the accuracy of the presidential vote than they were four years ago, and their plans to cast their own ballots vary widely depending on which candidate they support, according to new data from the NBC News / Wall Street Journal August interview.
The poll finds that 45 percent of voters are unsure that the election results will be counted correctly, up from 34 percent who said the same thing before the 2016 election.
The same share, 45 percent, said they are confident in the overall 2020 vote, down from 59 percent four years ago.
Specially Asked About Postings – What President Donald Trump has said, without proof, are ripe for fraud and foreign interference – 44 percent of voters say they are sure sent votes will be counted, while 51 percent do not agree.
Overall, 30 percent of voters say they plan to vote by mail, 20 percent say they plan to vote early in a polling station, and 43 percent plan to vote in person after the election. to go on election day.
However, the results of the poll on voting and voting behavior are characterized by deep divisions by party and by presidential election.
Supporters of Democratic candidate Joe Biden are significantly more likely than Trump supporters to say they plan to vote by mail. Nearly half – 47 per cent – say they plan to vote in their ballot, with an additional 21 per cent saying they will cast a vote on an early personal voting page before election day. Only about a quarter of Biden voters, 26 percent, plan to vote in an election on election day.
In contrast, two-thirds of Trump voters – 66 percent – say they will personally vote on election day. Just 11 percent say they plan to vote by mail, and 20 percent say they will vote in person early.
The results of the poll come as Trump repeatedly tried to discredit the security of e-mail votes (while exempting a vote by mail in his home state of Florida, where he cast his absent vote for the second). times this cycle will send). ) And they at least fear that austerity measures implemented by Trump’s new Postmaster General, a top GOP donor, will cause delays that could result in the rejection of scores of postal mail votes.
“The 2020 election will be a social affair with Democrats who are much more likely to use the mailbox and Republicans use the ballot box,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, whose firm Hart Research conducted the poll along with Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies . “What this means for the process of actually counting votes and how the information is released is critical in introducing confidence in the system, which is already at a low point.”
Large partisan differences in confidence in the elections
Republican voters generally have far less confidence in the election results than their Democratic opponents.
Just 36 percent of Republicans say they have confidence that the results of the presidential election will generally be counted accurately, while just 23 percent say the same of votes sent by mail. Nearly three-quarters, 73 percent, of Republicans believe that votes by mail will not be counted exactly.
Democrats put much more trust in both counting all the votes and mailing specifically. Twenty-five percent of Democrats say they are confident in the overall vote, and an even higher percentage – 65 percent – say they are confident in counting emails.
The party divisions are also expanding on what voters want election officials in their state to do about encouraging votes by mail during the ongoing coronavirus crisis.
Overall, 54 percent prefer that voters in their state receive a poll request in the email they need to fill out in order to cast an actual vote (21 percent) or that they automatically receive a poll by mail that is ready to cast (33 percent.)
Trump has explicitly rejected the second approach – when election officials automatically send ballots to voters without an application process. But the first practice – encouraging voters by mail to ask to get a vote – is just for party operations and outside groups on both sides of the aisle.
But among Republicans, three-quarters – 73 percent – reject both strategies.
Among Democrats, a majority – 53 percent – say voters in their state should automatically receive ballots in the mail, with no application required.
The NBC / WSJ poll was conducted August 9-12, 2020. The margin of error for 900 registered voters is +/- 3.27 percentage points.
