The NBA Breakdown provides data-driven analytics for everyday performance with the FantasyLabs Tools and Metrics to Mark Notable Players.
Friday includes a four-game NBA DFS list starting at 1:30 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard is today the only PG priced at $ 8,000 or higher on FanDuel, and he is a fairly difficult player to analyze. On the one hand, you’d expect him to come back from a bad show in Game 2 in which he scored just 30.1 fantasy points over 30 minutes in a blowout loss to the Lakers. On the other hand, it is difficult to predict how he will perform with that untied finger he holds in loss.
Commenting on the injury, Lillard acknowledged “It’s just painful, a little tender for the touch […] swollen and uncomfortable. We’re projecting him to come back in 42 minutes, so it should not hinder his chances, but it could hurt his shots. Given these factors, he is certainly in play, but probably more suited to tournaments than cash games.
Value
Point Guard is a little tough today: Lillard, Malcolm Brogdon en Chris Paul are all expected to play 37 minutes or more, and then it’s a drop-off for guys who might only be in their 20s. That makes those top-end guys even more valuable.
Brogdon holds the highest projected Plus / Minus on the position at FanDuel, and he has put near double-doubles in each of his past two games against the Heat. If you are worried about Lillard and want to lock in a reasonably high floor, Brogdon is one of the safest options available.
Fast Break
Paul is not as safe as Brogdon, but like the Pacers PG he is in a do-or-die situation 0-2 to the Rockets. Paul has been playing high minutes with decent use; if his shot gets hot, he will become a GPP winner.
If you want a points game, Markelle Fultz is a fine option at $ 4500 on DraftKings. He has fared better than expected in six straight games and has shown the ability to raise stats all over the place.
Shooting sports guard
Stud
As usual, James Harden sits on a position of his own on the position: At $ 11,700 on FanDuel, he is more than $ 3,000 more expensive than the next man in Jimmy Butler.
That’s a high price tag, but it’s also hard to beat a player whose depth is essentially 50 fantasy points. He has actually lacked value in both games in this series, but in DFS that is a little less detrimental to a man on that floor against someone who really has dud potential. Harden spread a bit more last game – which was not special – but we have seen him use 40-50% use if he has to. That kind of floor / ceiling combo is always in play.
Value
Andre Iguodala is in any case the sexiest play on the slate, but if you want to get on the studs today, you have to cut costs somewhere. And he is a player who is close to the minimum on both sides and plans to play 25-30 minutes. The use of Iguodala will be low; but if he can only get a few steals and blocks, that’s all he should pay for.
Fast Break
If you do not want to pay for Harden, Butler is a great comfort price. In fact, the Heat wing has the highest projected Plus / Minus position at DraftKings. He has yet to smear value against the Pacers, but his use is solid and he is projected to approach another 40 minutes.
Slight forward
Stud
Two players are in their own tier at the SF position today: LeBron James en Giannis Antetokounmpo. On FanDuel, both are projected to have the same value; the latter is more expensive but has a higher projection.
Among the two, Giannis has been the higher use player, but he carries a bit more risk today: He appeared on the injury report with a bald contusion. He is mentioned as likely, so he will probably play – and probably play a lot – but there is some uncertainty to his projections. If the game turns into a blowout, the Bucks can be careful with him.
As a result, if you want to pay at SF, LeBron may be the superior cash game. Despite that, it hardly speaks that both SF studs are great tournament options, given their sky-high ceilings.
Value
Danuel House was a recent revelation of the revelation, putting 34.3 fantasy points at $ 4,200 on FanDuel. He scored 19 real points over 38 minutes of action. House was crowned today at $ 4,500, which is not nearly enough of a walk: We project him 34 minutes, making him a fairly easy plug-and-play on the position.
Fast Break
Tournaments could be won or lost, depending on who gets it right in this middle tier: There are a ton of guys who can come up with tournaments in the $ 5-6K range, including Evan Fournier, Danilo Gallinari, Carmelo Anthony en Eric Gordon.
Among those, Gordon has been the best of the bunch lately, making him the most likely game for cash game play. But Gallinari has perhaps the highest ceiling in a must-win game for the Thunder against a beatable Rockets defense.
Update: May Aaron Gordon excluded for the Magic, Fournier is now the best value of this band, although I still love the ceilings of the mentioned players.
Power Forward
Stud
Power forward is the most shallow position of the day: Only 10 players are listed with eligibility on FanDuel. Anthony Davis is absolutely in a tier of his own at $ 10,700, and he also owns the group’s best projected Plus / Minus.
It is not often that the man with the highest price is also the best value, suggesting that he may be a player to prioritize today. His combination of minutes (projected for 37) and usage (projected for almost 28%) is unfavorable among his peers. He is a hit in both games against the Blazers, including one in which he shot just 8-of-24. That proves the floor he has.
Value
Due to the short rotations in Houston, Jeff Green has had to play some enormous minutes lately, for 32 and 37 respectively in Games 1 and 2. And he has actually filled in the box’s score nicely; that diversification is attractive for both cash games and GPPs. At just $ 5000 on FanDuel, he is severely underpriced relative to his role.
Fast Break
Bam Adebayo has been hit or missed lately, which probably takes him out of cash game consideration. In Game 1 he put up 17-10-6, showing his all-round play, but in Game 2 he just put up 28 fantasy points. Most importantly, he used only 11% of the Heat’s possessions when he was on the floor. We expect that to break up today, so if you want to take a shot and get off the field by disappearing AD, Bam is a good option for that.
Center
Stud
There are two players priced above $ 6,500 on FanDuel today: Nikola Vucevic en Jusuf Nurkic. Among the two, the former has the higher projected Plus / Minus and has a more solid fantasy role, especially with Gordon out today.
He has been on fire in the playoffs so far, setting up 35-14 and 32-10 lines in games 1 and 2, respectively. With Orlando so thin at the frontcourt positions, Vucevic expects the focal point again in Game 3. He is probably the superior option in both cash games and GPPs.
Value
Steven Adams is a bit of a scary play against the tempo-and-space rockets, though they have been a bit slower without Russell Westbrook in the lineup. Adams is by no means a flash player – he took just four shots last game – but his role is perfectly solid in a must-win game, and his price is well below $ 6,000.
Fast Break
Myles Turner went for 41.6 fantasy points on a cheap salary for the last game, and today he presents the same on top in ways that other available centers probably do not have. He’s pretty shot-dependent for a big man, but that’s ok for tournaments: If he grabs three or four 3-pointers, he could distinguish at low possession.
Photo credit: Getty Images
Image: Nikola Vucevic
