Saturday’s play-in game (2:30 p.m. ET, ABC) between the Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies is the rare NBA win-or-go-home game, at least for the Grizzlies. If Memphis wins on Saturday, then the rematch is Sunday (4:30 pm ET, ESPN), with the winner advancing to the NBA playoffs to face the Los Angeles Lakers.
Can the Grizzlies win in one elimination to force a second game? What surprises may come our way?
Our experts make their predictions and share where they will appear on Saturday.
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1. For the Blazers, what will you watch most?
Royce Young: I do not have to say Damian Lillard, because that’s too much of a cliché, but how could it really be anything else? So let’s at least make it specific: How deep will the Grizzlies be with their pickup points on Lillard? Beyond half court? Other free throw line? The lobby at Yacht Club?
Tim MacMahon: How does CJ McCollum move? I think the Grizzlies will aggressively double down on Lillard, as the Nets did, and essentially dare to defeat McCollum and the rest of the Blazers. McCollum had 33 points on 14-of-21 shots in Portland’s bubble-opening win over Memphis, but he has not been as effective because, according to reports, he had an unplaced fracture in his lower back that night ( 18 PPG on 39% shots in the past seven games).
Chris Herring: How will McCollum perform, with a transverse fracture in his back? He was able to maneuver to the core in the must-win game with Brooklyn. But he has only made 18% (3-of-17) of his thread from deep the past three games – down from 45% (14-of-31) in the four games before.
Kevin Pelton: Or fatigue begins to set in at some point. Of the top six players in minutes at seeding games, four are Blazers (Lillard first, McCollum second, Carmelo Anthony fourth and Gary Trent Jr. sixth). They seemed to run low on gas on Thursday when the Nets grabbed 54% of available offensive rebounds. Will that be a problem with a relatively quick turnaround?
Tim Bontemps: The energy level of the team. The Blazers have spent a ton just to get to that point, including Lillard playing the entire second half in Thursday’s win over Brooklyn. Does Portland have enough to close this on Saturday and get a critical 72 hours of rest before the Lakers play?
2. For the Grizzlies, what will you watch the most?
Young: The first eight minutes for Memphis will reveal a lot. Will the young Grizzlies be shocked under the pressure of the situation, or will ignorance be blissful and they rage out of the gates? Yes Morant has already made a name for himself in fearlessness, and there is no reason to believe he will be scared at tipoff.
MacMahon: Neither am I excited to see how Rookie of the Year slot Morant responds to the challenge. Large point guards have a competitive charisma. Lillard insists that with his history of playoff walk-offs and his historic finish to this early regular season to put Portland in that position. Morant seems to be cut out of that kind of mold, and this is an enormous test for an incredible talent who just celebrated his 21st birthday.
Bontemps: Can Memphis score shots? For the Grizzlies to have a chance to defeat the Blazers, they will have to make 3-pointers, and they have a lot of suspicious shooters out of the deep. To pull this off – especially without Jaren Jackson Jr. – they will need boys to play over their heads.
Herring: Can they take enough of Portland’s porous defense to defeat the Blazers twice? If anyone fulfills that task, it’s rookie Brandon Clarke, who had a season-high 27-point performance against Portland earlier this year. Two of his four best-scoring performances this season came against the Blazers when he made 20-of-27 shots against Portland.
Pelton: How they decide to defend Lillard. There are no good options at this point. Trapping Lillard near the half-court means you give up regular 4-on-3 chances to the other Blazers, but Lillard at this point away from every shot is a risky statement.
3. What is the potential Saturday surprise we are not seeing coming?
Herring: You never know what you’ll get from Carmelo Anthony. After his misery 1-for-15 effort vs. Memphis on Feb. 12, he scored 21 points on shooting 7-of-10 in a victory over the Grizzlies two weeks ago. He’s a clockwork: The Blazers are 21-10 when Anthony shoots 40% or better, but 7-20 when he’s below that mark.
Bontemps: Carmelo has a throwback performance and drops 30 points to get one crack more at his longtime friend LeBron James in a playoff series.
Pelton: Mario Hezonja is a wild card. He gave Portland a big lift in the boiling opener vs. Memphis, scored eight points and added four rebounds, three steals and two assists in 23 minutes. Hezonja later went through a two-game stretch of DNP CDs, an indication of how broadly his role and performances may differ.
MacMahon: Will coach Grizzlies keep Taylor Jenkins at center Jonas Valanciunas or go small? The big man comes from a monstrous performance, recording his first triple-double with 26 points, 19 rebounds and 12 assists in the win over the Bucks. But Portland presents matchup issues for a traditional size that does not lack mobility. Valanciunas played just 14 minutes in Memphis’ recent OT loss to the Blazers, when he got into dire straits. He scored 16 points on 4-of-4 shooting, but the Grizzlies were outscored by 11 in those 14 minutes.
Young: Pull out the box-and-one, Grizzlies! Not likely, seeing the other weapons the Blazers have, but that may be the basis of a strategy: try to see what other Blazer you can beat. With McCollum not 100% and some inconsistency elsewhere, Lillard’s bracketing and doubling up could mean big shots are in the hands of Anthony and Gary Trent Jr.
4. Your prediction for Saturday’s game?
Young: Damian Lillard feels inexhaustible at the moment. It could certainly take two games with the freshness of the Grizzlies, but at some point, Lillard finds a way to get through. It’s what he does.
MacMahon: I’ll go with Portland in a high score affair, something like 125-118. I just can not choose against a saying Lady in this situation. Lillard arrived on a mission in Orlando and has been mostly incarcerated since his clutch missed free throws against the Clippers and the meat that followed by a few dudes he sent home earlier because the Blazers superstar chilled everyone reminded.
Herring: Without real benefit from home court for Portland, I think we might get on Sunday. Seeing how fun this reboot has been, and to maximize drama, I am hope we get two games. And while Portland’s defense is terrible, I expect Dame’s offense to be overcome in one of two games.
Bontemps: Despite my concerns about their energy level, I find that the Blazers are just too talented and experienced for the young Grizzlies. Portland will win by 15 points.
Pelton: Seeing as Portland games have gone into the bubble, I expect it will be close, and no team will be able to stop the other offensive and the Blazers will narrow it down eventually.
5. Winner of in-play vs. Lakers: How do you think that comes up?
Bontemps: From the Lakers point of view, the Blazers are the worst possible matchup among the teams that could claim the eighth seed. LA has no one to protect Damian Lillard, and the size of Portland inside could give LeBron James trouble on the rim. Eventually, the Lakers should win, but they are not far from danger. A cold streak of shots (they are the worst shooting team and least offensive team in the bubble) as an untimely injury would put them there.
MacMahon: The Blazers are absolutely dangerous enough to challenge the Lakers. But Portland is also defensively porous enough to let the Lakers suffer many of the offensive sickness they have suffered in the bubble. I’ll be predicting some classic Lady supernova appearances in the series, so give me Lakers in six.
Herring: While Lillard or Ja Morant would likely frustrate the Lakers, I do not see Portland or Memphis giving the Lakers a serious run in the first round. Memphis does not have the experience, and – despite LA’s offensive battle in the bubble – I do not think the Blazers have the defense to make it.
Pelton: While I’m sure the Lakers would rather not face Lillard and a Blazers team with deep playoff experience, I think they should be heavily favored over which team wins this series.
Young: The Blazers will push the Lakers into what should be a good series. But even with the Lakers’ problems in the bubble, the Blazers have not solved all of them, especially their defensive limitations. Winning four times would require four bone games from Lillard, which is not hard to imagine. Problem is, the other side may be against James and Anthony Davis to compensate for any Lady Time outburst. Lakers in six.
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