The NBA Draft Lottery will take place at 8:30 pm ET Thursday from remote locations in the United States – on market for 2020 !. And if the Ping-Pong balls stop, the future of one franchise could change forever.
The Warriors, Cavaliers and Timberwolves all have the best chances of experiencing the best possible outcome, with a shared chance of 14.0% to win the lottery, and thus, the no. 1 general choice. But as we saw last year with the New Orleans Pelicans – who had just a 7.5% chance of winning the lottery – anything can happen on lottery night.
As we put together for Thursday, here are six stories to watch as the official lottery order is sorted.
1. Which player will emerge as the big winner?
A year ago, it was for everyone and everyone of course that the Pelicans, right at winning the lottery, would select Zion Williamson with their choice. And so they did.
But this year it is not yet clear who the top view is in this class, and scouts I’ve talked to think it’s a three man race between James Wiseman, LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards, with fit and need served as tie-breaker. (Wiseman is a center, LaMelo is a lead keeper, Edwards is a shooter / wing.) It will not be immediately clear which player is coming off as the big winner, but we need to get much more clarity with the order in stone.
2. Can the pelicans make history?
The Pelicans beat gold last season by moving from outside the top five to No. 1 spot, with the pick to select Zion Williamson. But repeating this season would be pretty unusual (and, in fact, record-setting). New Orleans has the 13th-best odds around the no. 1 to choose, with only a 1.2% chance. No team has ever had a smaller chance of winning the lottery and went on to win the lottery (although the Magic came close in 1993, winning the lottery with 1.52% odds.) Ironically as it is, the Magic are the only ones team that has won the lottery in subsequent seasons as the Pelicans could do Thursday.
3. Knicks’ bid to end the draw with the lottery takes center stage
The Knicks have not gone up in the NBA Draft lottery since 1985 – the year they won the no. 1 pact and Patrick Ewing selected. But with team president Leon Rose serving as the team’s official representative for the lottery, perhaps a new face will bring new fortunes.
New York has a 9% chance of winning the lottery and a 28% chance of securing a top-three pick in the draft. If there ever was a year to go, this could be a good one: the Knicks need a point guard, and LaMelo Ball and Killian Hayes seem like two viable franchise-caliber lead guards worth considering. The odds of 9% of the team only kick Golden State, Cleveland, Minnesota, Atlanta and Detroit.
4. Cleveland is king of the lottery
The Cavs have won the NBA Draft lottery the last two decades more than any other team in the league, resulting in some huge hits (LeBron James, Kyrie Irving) and some equally enormous big whiff (Anthony Bennett). Now here they are, in the mix again. They have a 40.1% chance of staying in the top three of the concept, an astronomically high 79.9% chance of staying in the top five, and a 14% chance of paying out with de nr. 1 pick.
The Cavs have spent a lot of carrying capital on their backcourt in recent years, with Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, the team’s top guards, lined up in the lottery in recent years. As such, winning the lottery in Cleveland could be a particularly positive development for James Wiseman, who views prospects as the top man of the big man in this class, simply because it seems more likely than not that the Cavs are trying balancing their roster to account for recent investments in the waiting position (potentially reducing the chance that LaMelo Ball or Anthony Edwards will land there).
5. Dash of Golden State’s dynasty moves forward
Golden State will pick within the top five. Because of the restructured lottery system, that is a guarantee; it’s just a matter of how high – the Warriors can not fall lower than no. 5. If they choose no. 1 secure, then prepare yourself for the shame that the system is rigged.
Golden State is responsible for three of the last five NBA champions. But rigged, the lottery is not. If it selects no. 1 secures, however, we can see the resuscitation of one of the greatest dynasties of the NBA.
6. Unforgettable conspiracy theories, get started
The NBA Draft lottery has just been rigged. But man, do the people love even some conspiracy theories.
How about the conspiracy theory of 1985 that the corner of the envelope was visibly bent, David Stern cut off to pick it up and thus build the path for the Knicks to emerge as big prize winners in the Patrick Ewing sweepstakes?
Or was the theory that LeBron James’ local team, Cleveland, won the lottery almost too good-to-be-true story to end?
Or that Anthony Davis was the Prince promised for New Orleans when Hurricane Katrina’s franchise returned?
There is always drama to arouse some wild controversy, suggested or not. It’s why the lottery remains one of the most compelling sporting events of our time, and why, for as frustrating as it may be for many, we will do nothing on Thursday but cancel the full 30 minutes as the Zapruder movie for everything that even looks like something.
