The winner of this war was very clear – Azerbaijan, an oil-rich nation whose defense spending is much larger than the budget of its anti-poor government.
But for three decades and against all odds, the cash-strapped Armenia defended its recognized satellite, Nagorno-Karabakh, in the South Caucasus region north of Turkey and Iran. Dominated by ethnic Armenians, it violently withdrew from Azerbaijan after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
how?
“Because we are fighting for our land,” says Gagik, a 47-year-old schoolteacher in Stepnecart, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, surrounded by blackouts and navigable only by smooth-looking roads.
Gagik stopped his last name because he didn’t know the “other side”.
After that medieval Armenian state, their unrecognized, Dubai-sized statelet called “Artasakh”.
The more well-known name of the statelet can explain a lot about the nature of the conflict.
“Nagorno” means “mountain range” in Russian, the language of the last imperial master who conquered all of the South Caucasus two centuries ago and remained Armenia’s closest ally.
Soviet leader Joseph Stalin created Nagorno-Karabakh an autonomous region within Soviet Azerbaijan, surrounded by Azerbaijanis surrounded by populated districts.
During the perestroika reform that eventually led to the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh held a referendum, voting to secede from Azerbaijan and become part of Armenia.
“Karabakh” in Turkish means “black garden”, the language of a close ally of Azerbaijan that keeps its border with Armenia locked and its economy separate.
The two countries have historic historical and linguistic ties, and Turkey has strongly supported Azerbaijan in the years-long peace talks on Nagorno-Karabakh, which has become the Gordian knot of post-Soviet politics.
The first open war between the two pre-Soviet republics in 1992 involved Gagic ethnic Armenian rebels.
They expelled ethnic Azerbaijanis from seven surrounding districts, turning them into the land of a densely populated man. The war claimed more than 300,000 lives, displaced hundreds of thousands, and was triggered by Russia’s 1994 proxy war.
But Gagik never put down his gun. The war continued to smoke, and he ate and taught for years.
Annual flare-ups claimed the lives of people, including Ghazik’s nephew and two cousins. They take place in the spring or summer and shootouts, arrests and exchanges of troops, and angry diatribes from Armenia and Azerbaijan accuse each other of violating the ceasefire.
The four international mediators in the conflict – Russia, Turkey, France and the US, home to large Armenian diasporas – will issue statements condemning the violence.
The last flare-up in mid-July this year killed 17 people on both sides and involved heavy artillery fire and drone strikes.
Armenia continued to support Nagorno-Karabakh militarily – without ever recognizing its independence – while the broken area became the crucible of Armenian politics.
Two former Armenian presidents and dozens of officials were born in Nagorno-Karabakh and fought in the war, and a large portion of Armenian earnings went to the broken region for military service.
At military ceremonies, people between the ages of 18 and 20 sing and dance to celebrate the beginning of what is known as “their patriotic duty.”
The war begins again
On Sunday morning, after hearing gunfire near Stepnecart and receiving phone calls from rebel commanders, Gagik left his home and went straight to the border.
He told Al Jazeera by phone, “This time it looks serious.”
Armenia said 16 people had been killed and more than 100 injured. He declared martial law and consolidation.
Azerbaijan said it had launched a “counter-attack” after being “provoked” by Nagorno-Karabakh.
“Today, the victorious Azerbaijani army is leading the counter-attack with much success,” said Azerbaijani President Ilkham Aliyev, his father Heydar, to security officials on Sunday.
“Resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is our historic duty. I have said many times that we have to settle the matter so that the people of Azerbaijan can be satisfied, “he said.
His officials claimed that the Azerbaijani army had killed hundreds of separatists and Armenian soldiers, and destroyed drones, helicopters and tanks.
Turkey was quick to condemn Armenia.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tweeted on Sunday that “by adding to its attacks against Azerbaijan, Armenia has once again shown that it is the biggest threat to peace and stability in the region.”
Azerbaijan’s Yenlik Salderlarina Bir Yenisini Eklin Ermenistan, Balgad Baron Huzuran ü Nündeki n Büyik Tehdit Olduanu Bir Kere Daha Göstermitir. T Mrk Milleti has a long way to go before he can play Azerbaijan.
– Recep Tayyip Erdogan (rtirdogan) September 27, 2020
But he did not intend to intervene – apparently waiting for Russia’s response, observers say.
“Ankara will not interfere in the conflict until Russia does. So far, we have seen a restricted response from Moscow, “Emil Mustafayed, a political analyst based in the Azerbaijani capital Baku, told EADaily online magazine.
So far, Russia has called on both sides to “immediately start negotiations to prevent the fire and stabilize the situation.”
Will Russia intervene?
Moscow maintains a military base in Armenia, supplies it with hydrocarbons and remains a magnet for migrant workers from Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, whose money keeps their families and homeland afloat.
Many average Armenians see Russia as the savior that prevents the destruction of their culture and religion by Turkey and Iran.
“If it weren’t for Russia, Armenia wouldn’t exist,” the 52-year-old businessman, who exports fruits and vegetables to Moscow, told the reporter in 2017 in Yerevan, the Armenian capital.
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Armenian Prime Minister Nicole Pashinyan during the 2019 meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Yerevan, Armenia. [File: Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik/Kremlin/Reuters]
His words are a recurring mantra by many Armenian politicians, TV anchors and experts.
But some claim that Armenia has become a pawn in the Kremlin’s geopolitical political games. Russia promised Armenia to limit its ties with the European Union and join the European Union, which is widely seen as a Russian attempt to rebuild the Soviet Union in the Moscow-led free-trade bloc.
“There is a fair Armenian assumption of dubious and unreliable support from Russia in the event that the current conflict spreads,” said Richard Giragosian, director of the Center for Regional Studies in Yerevan.
‘More serious’
Azerbaijan seems to have spent years preparing for the invasion.
“The current order of warfare involves more serious offensive weapons systems, with the Azerbaijani side much more willing to deploy and engage an improved arsenal of their weapons.”
Baku obviously hopes that the war will be quick and victorious.
“This is, of course, blitzkrieg,” Nicole Mitrokin, a researcher at the University of Bremen in Germany, told Al Jazeera.
He said Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia are usually quick to mobilize protectionists and volunteers, but the COVID-19 epidemic poses a major obstacle.
“Many Russia or the U.S. Works in and cannot return immediately due to the epidemic. And that’s the main problem, “he said.
