Over the weekend, it appears that the Miami Marlins had four positive COVID-19 tests, one on Friday and then three on Sunday. The team had traveled to Philadelphia to play, where they did it all three days, including Sunday.
Positive tests were always expected, as these are human beings who live lives outside the stadium (no matter how much you try to control them), and since this virus is incredibly contagious (no matter how much you try to avoid it). But what has never been entirely clear is what exactly happens in this situation, where there are multiple players who test positive in several days, and there is no great idea of how far away the virus is. it may have already spread between your travel group:
Four Marlins learned that they tested positive for COVID-19 within three days.
Two infectious disease experts say the positive results fit the definition of “a clear outbreak” with the club.
So why did the Marlins play baseball on Sunday? With @Jaysonst https://t.co/7Mv4Ok1K8r
– Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 27, 2020
The problem with going too far in any thoughts you may have here is that we don’t know much. That is what happens with a virus that is incubated, often asymptomatically, for such a long period of time. The Marlins may already have an explosion of cases. Or these four types could have contracted the virus from the same activity and not spread it at all. You can’t know unless you have * perfect * rapid antigen tests that don’t exist yet (85 percent accuracy is the best you’ll see), and aren’t widely available either (not even knowing to what extent each MLB team have them ready).
So we really don’t know much about the Marlins situation. It is believed that it is highly unlikely that their players transmitted the virus to the Phillies while they are playing (outdoors, limited close contact, almost totally socially estranged, etc.). But between the Marlins and their staff? I really don’t know how I could have great confidence right now (but let me reiterate the “I really don’t know” part, because we don’t even know exactly what protocols have been implemented since that first positive test on Friday).
But as I sit here this morning, all I can think of is that if you’re going to try to play at an extraordinary moment, then you must be prepared to do extraordinary things. In this situation, isn’t that the minimum to quarantine the traveling side of the Marlins until you feel reasonably sure you know the extent of the spread? I don’t know how long it would be, depending on contact tracking and testing efforts, as well as any additional positive tests, but that doesn’t seem like the best thing if you don’t want to risk exploiting the entire season as a domino effect? Not to mention the risk of additional exposures and serious illness?
I swear, I am not trying to be alarmist here. I’m trying to be as thoughtful as possible and think realistically about what the league is trying to accomplish, but the idea has been to do it “as safely as possible.” Is that consistent with the Marlins, who have an unknown level of spread among their tour group and are now returning to Miami to play a game tonight?
There is a 60-man player pool for a reason, and if MLB really wanted to, you could create 40-man roster exceptions (or something like that) to allow this to happen – send the entire reserve pool to play the games on its place:
Could the Jupiter Marlins taxi team end up playing against the Orioles in Miami, while the regular Marlins stay in Philadelphia in the midst of a COVID-19 outbreak? https://t.co/dNbL8Mwy82 pic.twitter.com/zbzQZpaeDh
– The Comeback (@thecomeback) July 27, 2020
UPDATE: The scope of the spread is now better understood and significant enough that tonight’s game has already been canceled:
The Marlins’ opening game against the Baltimore Orioles tonight has been canceled, according to ESPN sources, while the team remains in Philadelphia and continues to undergo testing.
– Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 27, 2020
