The risks of the event go beyond public health. Mount Rushmore has not seen fireworks in 10 years because the area’s ecology makes it easily susceptible to wildfires.
The surrounding area, the Black Hills National Forest, contains large populations of Ponderosa pines. The ponderosas are suffering from an infestation of pine beetles, which kill trees and create forests full of firewood.
According to the National Park Service, “Ponderosa pine is highly flammable and burns with great intensity and severity in the summer season in a typical dry year.” Intensity measures fire output and gravity measures the impact of a fire on the surrounding ecology.
Former forest firefighter Bill Gabbert said he is concerned about the lack of transparency about tree safety.
“For years, South Dakota state incident commanders and local public information personnel have been the primary distributors of information on fire development that state personnel are fighting,” he said, but that distribution of information appears have decreased.
A valuable piece of information is the probability of ignition, a number calculated from the shading, temperature and dryness values. The higher the number, the greater the risk of fire. “The probability of ignition is not a political problem, it is science. An IP greater than 10% could put the public and natural resources at risk.”
Pine beetle infestations become more dangerous when weather conditions that fuel forest fires are combined.
“July can be hot, dry weather that leaves the forest around the monument vulnerable to wildfires,” said CNN meteorologist Brandon Miller.
“This year the Black Hills region of South Dakota is currently in moderate drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor, making the risk particularly high.”
The good news is that the weather can be somewhat cooperative. The National Weather Service does not plan to issue a “red flag warning,” the agency’s signal for increased fire risk, this weekend.
According to the Rapid City National Weather Service, a red flag warning is activated for gusts of winds greater than 25 mph, combined with humidity of 15% or less. This weekend is not expected to be as dry or windy.
The report suggests risks from a dry environment. “A forest fire in a dry year is more likely to result in a high consequence fire” in the areas around the monument, the NPS said. Such a fire could last twelve hours, and the report details a decision-making line to account for dry conditions.
The report emphasizes a low frequency of fires in the area and the ability to contain fires if necessary.
“There has not been a significant forest fire in the area in and around the Memorial in more than a century,” according to the NPS. “Previous fireworks displays resulted in 21 wildfire fires, which were quickly suppressed for safety and structural protection reasons.”
Like many national parks, both the Mount Rushmore Memorial and Black Hills National Park do not allow the burning of personal bonfires or the lighting of fireworks by visitors.
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