Michigan went from ‘high’ to ‘medium’ risk of coronavirus outbreak, data says

In just over a week, Michigan’s risk of a coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) has gone from a “high” risk level to a “medium” risk level by Covid Act Now.

The Covid Act Now group of technologists, epidemiologists, health experts, and public policy leaders is identifying each state’s level of risk for the spread of COVID-19, which has rapidly worsened as COVID cases increase- 19 in the United States

On July 28, the state of Michigan had switched to experiencing “slow disease growth” (yellow) according to the research group. On July 19, the state was considered “at risk” (orange) for a COVID-19 outbreak as the number of cases continued to increase and contact tracking continued to decrease across the state.

Now, the state is not considered to “contain” COVID-19, but the virus is technically spreading at a slow rate, according to the group.

As of Friday, July 31, Michigan has an infection rate of 1.06, which means that each individual infected with COVID-19 is infecting 1.06 other people.

The state’s infection rate has decreased since our last report, which showed an infection rate of 1.21 on July 19. Michigan’s COVID-19 infection rate was 1.14 on July 8, 0.88 on July 2, and 0.85 in mid-June.

Covid Act Now considers a “critical” infection rate if it exceeds 1.4.

The percentage of contact tracing in Michigan has been declining steadily for the past month as the state experiences an increase in COVID-19 cases.

As of July 30, the state of Michigan reported 80,887 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 6,191 deaths. Cases increased by 996 on Wednesday, including 300 added cases from a backlog of evidence.

Throughout the month of July, daily COVID-19 case counts have increased at rates not seen since May.

As of Friday, the Covid Act Now reports that Michigan is tracking contacts for only about 29 percent of new COVID-19 cases within 48 hours of infection, which health officials say is insufficient to contain the virus. Experts recommend that at least 90 percent of new COVID-19 cases be tracked within 48 hours to contain the virus.

The state reportedly tracked contacts of 31 percent of new cases within 48 hours beginning July 19. Michigan contact tracking was approximately 45 percent on July 8, 65 percent on July 2, and 100 percent on June 18.

When a state’s contact tracking falls below 20 percent, it is considered “low,” and when it falls below 7 percent, it is considered “critical,” according to research.

Covid Act Now research shows Michigan is still doing pretty well with COVID-19 testing. Data indicates that Michigan has conducted aggressive and widespread COVID-19 testing and has a “low” positive test rate of 2.2 percent, which decreased from 2.7 percent on July 19.

Michigan’s positive COVID-19 test rate had been gradually rising after dropping dramatically during May and early June. The state saw its lowest positive test rate, 0.9 percent, on June 10. Since then, the positive test rate has risen to 2.7 percent until it started to drop again on July 22, the data shows.

The positive test rate will be considered “medium” rather than low if it exceeds 3 percent. Between 10 and 19 percent is considered high, and between 20 and 100 percent is considered critical.

Michigan hospitals can also “handle a new wave of COVID” as current ICU vacancies are plentiful enough to “absorb” a new wave of infected patients. COVID-19 hospitalizations in Michigan have recently increased slightly, but are still considerably lower than in April.

The data does not predict Michigan hospitals will be overloaded in the next 30 days, as long as current reopening plans are upheld.

Since our last report, Covid Act Now has introduced a new “key indicator” that measures the number of new COVID-19 cases each day per 100,000 residents.

On Friday, data shows that Michigan is averaging 7.3 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 per day for every 100,000 residents. If this trajectory continues, the group says that 2 to 20 percent of Michigan’s population will contract COVID-19 in the next year.

Covid Act Now also breaks down the data by county level and, for the first time since our report, it has enough data to assign a coronavirus risk level for each county in the state. According to the data, most Michigan counties are considered “medium” risk for a COVID-19 outbreak.

Covid Act Now only previously had enough data to assign risk levels to counties in the lower half of the southern peninsula of Michigan. Most counties added to the map are classified as “low” or “medium” risk, generally due to low positive test rates and new daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people.

Many Michigan counties in the southern half of the lower peninsula are considered high risk or are experiencing an active or imminent outbreak and have been for weeks, including Berrien, Ionia, Iosco, Lenawee, St. Clair and St. Joseph. The high level of risk for these counties is largely due to the high rates of COVID-19 infection and the high risk of hospitals overwhelming patients.

Several counties have moved to a lower risk level since mid-July, including Bay, Isabella, Midland, Otsego, Ottawa, Washtenaw and Wayne counties.

• More detailed COVID-19 county data has been broken down for all counties in the US by Covid Act Now in collaboration with the Harvard Global Health Institute and dozens more researchers and public health officials. Click here to take a look.

Covid Act Now previously said Michigan’s COVID-19 readiness met or exceeded international standards on all of the group’s “key metrics” in June. Now the state’s pandemic preparedness simply “meets international standards.”

Amid growing COVID-19 cases across the state, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer amended executive orders Wednesday to limit indoor gatherings to just 10 people and close indoor bars that get 70 percent of your alcohol earnings. Under the same restrictions, indoor bars have been closed in most of Michigan since early July, but the amended orders now include establishments in the northern regions of the state.

“As we see COVID-19 cases continue to rise, the Michiganders can’t afford to let their guard down. We must take every possible step to save lives, protect the brave men and women on the front lines, and avoid overwhelming our healthcare system as we continue to fight COVID-19, ”said Whitmer. “After seeing a resurgence in social gathering-related cases across the state, we must further limit meetings for the health of our community and economy. By taking these strong steps, we will be better positioned for our children to return to the classroom and avoid a potentially devastating second wave. ”

A recent outbreak at an East Lansing bar caused 187 infections and more than 50 cases have been linked to a house party in Saline. A sandbank party at Torch Lake over the weekend of July 4 led to at least 43 confirmed cases.

See: Michigan Risk Map Update COVID-19: Where The Things Are

Governor Whitmer also made face masks mandatory to use in all interior public spaces and in most exterior public spaces to help prevent the spread of COVID-19.

Whitmer previously said that if COVID-19 cases continue to rise at a high rate, the state will backtrack on its reopening plan, affecting a number of reopened businesses and workplaces, and how K-12 schools will resume. in the fall.

As of Friday, only Vermont is considered “on track to contain COVID,” according to the research group. Michigan is one of the nine states experiencing slow growth of the disease.

There are currently 27 states “at risk” of a COVID-19 outbreak, and 13 states experiencing an “active or imminent outbreak”: an increase of nine on July 19 and six on July 8. Among these “critical” states are Florida, Texas, and Arizona, who reported an increase of 72,000, 56,000, and 18,000 additional COVID-19 cases, respectively, over a seven-day period on July 28.

More here: COVID-19 in the US: State follow-up with most cases, deaths on July 28

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