Michigan no longer “on track to contain COVID,” data show

The state of Michigan has now been labeled “medium risk” for the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and is no longer “on track to contain COVID,” according to data from the Covid Act Now.

The group, comprised of technologists, epidemiologists, health experts, and public policy leaders, has been working to identify each state’s level of risk for the spread of COVID-19. On June 18, Michigan was labeled “low risk” for the spread of COVID-19, as the number of cases and deaths in the state increased at a slow rate after an intense battle with the pandemic.

At the time, Michigan was just one of three states, including New York and New Jersey, that were considered “low risk” for the spread of the virus.

Now Michigan is seeing a slight increase in COVID-19 cases, as much of the nation experiences spikes in cases and deaths. The state’s COVID-19 hospitalization numbers also increased last week, but have begun to decrease again. COVID-19 deaths in Michigan have not seen a recent rebound.

According to the Covid Act Now, Michigan currently has a low infection rate of 0.88, which means that every Michigan resident infected with the virus is infecting 0.88 other people. The state infection rate was 0.85 in mid-June.

Data shows Michigan is doing well with COVID-19 testing, suggesting that the state is conducting aggressive and widespread testing to help contain the virus. The state is also reportedly using only 14 percent of its ICU capacity for COVID-19 patients, suggesting that Michigan hospitals could likely “absorb a wave of new COVID-19 infections”, if required. However, the group does not predict that Michigan hospitals will be overloaded in the next 30 days.

The main reason for Michigan’s new “medium risk” label is attributed to its “insufficient” contact tracking amid rising COVID-19 cases, according to the Covid Act Now.

The group previously said the state had a sufficient number of contact trackers, but now as COVID-19 cases increase across the state, the group says only about 65 percent of new cases will be tracked within 48 hours after infection, which is considered insufficient to contain the spread of the virus. Experts recommend that at least 90 percent of new cases of COVID-19 be tracked within 48 hours to contain the virus.

Covid Act Now breaks down the data by county level, but does not have enough information to establish risk levels for each county in Michigan. Based on their data, risk levels have been identified for several counties in the southern half of the lower peninsula.

Counties like Lapeer, St. Clair, Livingston and Lenawee have been labeled a “critical” level of risk due to a “high risk” of hospitals being overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients.

• Covid Act Now recently helped create a county-disaggregated COVID-19 risk level map in collaboration with the Harvard Global Health Institute and dozens more researchers and public health officials. Click here to take a look.

Covid Act Now previously said Michigan’s COVID-19 readiness met or exceeded international standards on all of the group’s “key metrics” in June. Pandemic state preparedness is now considered to “meet” international standards.

The researchers say that if the state maintains its current operations (as of July 2) in response to the pandemic, “Michigan may eventually achieve collective immunity, although this can take years.”

Michigan is among 20 other “medium risk” states experiencing “controlled growth of the disease.” Currently, only New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Connecticut are considered “on track to contain COVID.” The rest of the country is labeled “at risk” of spreading the virus, with the exception of five states, Arizona, Missouri, Alabama, Florida and South Carolina, which are reportedly experiencing an “active or imminent outbreak.”

Several states have reported significant increases in COVID-19 cases in recent weeks as economies begin to reopen amid the pandemic. For example, Florida reported an increase of 46,000 cases of COVID-19 and Arizona reported an increase of almost 20,000 new cases in the past week.

Health officials believe young people may be partially responsible for a spike in COVID-19 cases in Michigan, as bars, restaurants, and nightclubs recently reopened to the public. Some recent outbreaks have been linked to bars, especially in East Lansing, where 138 cases of COVID-19 have been linked to an outbreak at Harpers Restaurant and Brew Pub as of Wednesday.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer announced the closure of the indoor bars on Wednesday to help curb the spread of COVID-19.

READ: Step back: some Michigan bars were sorted closed after coronavirus outbreaks