In recent weeks, the Senate Majority Leader has become so concerned about Republicans losing control of the Senate that he has singled out vulnerable Republican party senators in difficult races who could distance themselves from the President if they deemed it necessary, according to multiple high-ranking Republicans. including a source close to McConnell.
While this may give some senators the flexibility to make a distinction between themselves and the President, it also forces them to walk a tightrope. Trump remains enormously popular with the Republican base, and any attempt to weaken him runs the risk of alienating those voters.
“These vulnerable senators cannot afford to explicitly repudiate Trump,” said a senior Republican on Capitol Hill. “They just need to demonstrate that they are independent on important issues in their states.”
Still, Trump continues to give Republican senators ways to facilitate their breakup with him.
Senate Mathematics
Republicans currently have a three-seat majority and at least six incumbent senators facing serious Democratic challengers. High-ranking Republicans say the most vulnerable are Senators Martha McSally of Arizona, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Cory Gardner of Colorado. Despite polls showing a tight race in Maine, Republican Party sources in recent weeks have been more optimistic about Senator Susan Collins, a longtime target of Democrats and liberal interest groups.
Senators Joni Ernst of Iowa and Steve Daines of Montana are also a cause for concern. While some Republicans believe they are both in good shape, other Republican sources tell CNN that the races are extremely tight and that the fortunes of both candidates may ultimately depend on how Trump is doing on Election Day in both states. The tall Capitol Hill Republican even voiced caution about Senator Dan Sullivan, the first Alaska Republican who is otherwise considered relatively safe.
But the size of a net loss for the Republican Party is important. Even if they lose majority control, Senate Republicans can effectively defend Democratic legislation with a large enough minority and a handful of moderate Democratic defectors. But if the Republican Party’s losses in the Senate are too great, its ability to use the filibuster to force a majority majority vote to proceed on the legislation will be meaningless.
“Even if we lose the majority, it is important that we have 49 seats,” said the tall Republican on the hill. “If we’re 45, we can’t stop (with) the filibuster. Every seat counts.”
And the trajectory of the presidential race (Joe Biden leads Trump by 14 points nationwide in the latest CNN poll) and the persistence of the coronavirus pandemic has made the project to protect the Republican Party margin even more so. urgent.
“Major Republican Party donors are redirecting money to Senate races,” said Fred Zeidman, a Republican donor from Texas. “The Senate is the firewall. We have to make sure we keep the Senate regardless of who is elected president.”
Early distance signals
“They are being elected to represent a state, so they should be free to represent the people who vote for them,” Zeidman said. “And if that means taking positions that are not fully approved or consistent with the White House, that is what a democracy is all about.”
However, being reelected as a Republican in 2020 is primarily about changing the Trump issue and his response to the pandemic.
Republican senators in distress have turned to promoting their own positive acts, from individual lines in the first pandemic economic stimulus bill to additional efforts to solve testing problems in their home states. Tillis’ campaign points to a letter the North Carolina Republican wrote to Vice President Mike Pence in March asking for more evidence of coronavirus. And in his first campaign announcement this year, Gardner highlighted local news reports about his successful efforts to import Covid masks and test kits from East Asia to Colorado.
Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist, said this type of negotiation by Republican senators at risk in the stimulus bill “tells you everything you need to know” about the state of the election and the expectation that Trump is on his way. towards defeat.
“Vulnerable members desperately need something to do while their ambitious colleagues in safe places are ruling out 2020 and thinking about what it will look like what they do and say now in 2024,” Donovan said.
Caught in a bind
For other candidates, the distance between them and Trump is not even an option. Republican agents say that in places like North Carolina and Arizona, the fate of current Republican senators will be irrevocably tied to Trump.
That puts Republican senators in jeopardy in a dilemma. There is little incentive for Republicans to break with the president and risk losing the support of his base, which is a critical part of the Republican coalition. But drawing some contrast to the President, at least at Covid, opens the door to win over undecided voters who will vote against Trump and who would otherwise oppose allies on the ballot.
McSally, who follows his Democratic challenger Mark Kelly in almost all recent polls, is caught up in this problem.
The McSally and Tillis campaigns say they will focus on striking a contrast between themselves and their Democratic opponents in which party will be best positioned to revive the economy. But his overall focus is outside of Trump, a strong indication that there isn’t much more to gain from a partnership with the President.
Follow the money
The National Republican Senate Committee, meanwhile, has spent $ 1 to $ 6 million in the first half of the year in North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa, while spending a little over $ 3.5 million at the same time in Maine (where outside of the super PACs both sides have spent a lot) and in Arizona.
That tracks where the super PACs on both sides have been prioritizing their spending in the past few weeks. According to Kantar Media, spending on digital and television advertising for Senate races during the month of July was the highest in North Carolina, Iowa, and Colorado (along with Kansas, which has a competitive primary in the Republican Senate in August). .
There are some in Washington who are less serious about the circumstances of the Republican Party. Scott Reed, the veteran Republican strategist who heads the political arm of the Chamber of Commerce, issued a hopeful note about the ability of first-term Republican senators like Gardner and Tillis to close the deal on reelection.
“The presidential race will toughen up and this 2014 Senate class is strong, strong and very versatile to win,” said Reed, who echoed other Republicans by giving Collins the best shot of the four vulnerable Republican senators for reelection. winner.
A high-ranking Republican who spoke to CNN was more distressed about where Trump had put the party less than 100 days before the election. “Where can we play offense? Zero places,” said this Republican. “Where’s defense playing? All the places you shouldn’t have to worry about.”
CNN’s David Wright contributed to this story.
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