Massachusetts is among only a handful of states that is on track to contain COVID-19, according to one model.
The tool, created by Covid Act Now, a collection of epidemiologists, health and public policy experts, and technologists, shows that the community is one of four states “on the go” to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
The other states are also nearby: Connecticut, New York, and New Jersey, which covered some of the hardest hit areas when the pandemic in the United States emerged in March.
As of Sunday, Massachusetts had recorded 108,667 total probable and confirmed cases, according to data from the state Department of Public Health. The state has seen 8,060 related deaths over the course of the pandemic.
According to data collected by Covid Act Now, which was last updated on Friday, Massachusetts is decreasing the number of active cases; can probably handle a new wave of COVID-19; has sufficient testing capacity; and has done enough contact tracing to help contain the virus.
“Massachusetts is on track to contain COVID,” says Covid Act Now on its website. “Cases are steadily declining and Massachusetts COVID readiness meets or exceeds international standards.”
Data shows that the state’s infection rate has dropped to .75 from a peak of 2.76 in March.
“On average, each person in Massachusetts with COVID is infecting another 0.75 people,” the group says. “Because each person is infecting less than another person, the total number of current cases in Massachusetts is shrinking.”
Meanwhile, the positive test rate is 2.3 percent, down from a peak of 28.9 percent on April 15 in the Bay State.
“A low percentage (2.3%) of the COVID tests were positive, suggesting enough aggressive generalized testing in Massachusetts to detect most new cases,” said the Covid Act Now. “Identifying and isolating new cases can help contain COVID without resorting to locks.”
Massachusetts is currently in the second half of Phase 2 on its four-stage reopening plan. Starting last week, restaurants can now offer indoor meals to customers once again, thanks to lower metrics, authorities said.
“Based on the best data available, Massachusetts has 2,500 contact trackers,” said Covid Act Now. “With an average of 202 new cases daily, we estimate that Massachusetts needs 1,010 contact tracking employees to track all new cases in 48 hours, before too many people become infected. This means that Massachusetts can probably track 100 percent of new COVID infections in 48 hours. When this level of tracing is combined with widely available evidence, COVID can be contained without resorting to locks. “
Probably not by coincidence, Massachusetts is also among the top four states in the country for regular use of masks, according to data compiled by the University of Washington Institute for Health Assessment and Metrics (IHME).
Elsewhere in New England, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Rhode Island have “controlled disease growth,” the Covid Act Now map shows.
Meanwhile, cases in Arizona, Florida and Texas have recently increased, with the number of registered cases in the country increasing by more than 2.5 million on Sunday, The Washington Post reports.
The latest Covid Act Now model says Arizona is experiencing an “active or imminent outbreak” along with Missouri and Alabama. Texas and Florida are “at risk”.
