While this unique version of the Stanley Cup playoffs is just entering the second round, it’s sober to realize that if it closes, we might not see the NHL for long.
That means we will not be playing the Penguins again for an extended period of time. Will Sidney Crosby lose a year (or more) of his remaining career due to the pandemic? It is quite possible.
The NHL helps roughly 37% of its total revenue from ticket sales. That is compared to 27% for MLB, 22% for the NBA and 16% for the NFL.
Thanks to Mammoth networking contracts, the NFL can make a big profit without selling tickets. But the NHL is losing a lot of money. It can not pay to be a made for TV product.
A half house (or less) for the sake of social distance will not cut it either. Selling a fraction of the cards, even temporarily, would kill the Penguins. They need sellouts.
The question also begs: What happens if the NHL can sell tickets, and fans do not buy them? The fear aroused by covid will long pass for a return to mass meetings that are safely proclaimed, even if that statement is legitimate. Heck, if a vaccine is approved, many people will refuse to take it. Common sense and logic are killed by the echo chamber.
Even if the NHL can financially require it to sell ticket sales, players will not fall back into a bubble. Not ever. Tuukka Rask leaving Boston in the disturbance was a symptom. By all accounts, many players are wrong. Comments (mostly off-the-record) are leaking.
If players crack into the bubble after a month, 82 games plus playoffs are out of the question. It will not even be mooted, nor should it. A relatively short sacrifice for completing a season is one thing. But that method can not become a way of life.
Dec 1 Reported as the starting date for the 2020-21 season of the NHL.
That’s a pipe dream. There is zero chance. In the US, the pandemic is absolutely no end in sight. How could anyone see December 1st as a realistic target date? (Unless the entire season is played in Canada. Go, Halifax Penguins!)
Yes, I know: Everything changes after Nov. 3. That is also a pipe dream. You will be amazed at how bad things improve or even change, and that is regardless of who wins the election.
The only league immune to covid is the NFL. Bodies could pile up outside each team’s stadium, and the NFL will still play. It’s too big to fail. Too much money is involved. The NFL will fund a number of attendances at most stadiums, whether that should or should not happen.
Will that open doors for other leagues? Perhaps. Heinz Field sits 68,400. One third capacity is 3,000 more than PPG Paints Arena holds.
I do not hope the NHL closes in a year or more.
But I am envious of seeing what happens when that is perceived as a legitimate possibility.
Would players take free cuts to keep the league going? That should trust the owners to accurately reflect the financial situation, and that is quite a leap of faith. (Salaries may decrease organically if, eventually, salaries fall due to declining incomes. Next season’s cap will be frozen at $ 81.5 million.)
Would players accept the danger of using the MLB model: Play at home and away in empty arenas, and take the risk of traveling? MLB has certainly experienced some setbacks.
Or would the NHL pack it in just months, maybe years?
I try not to panic with hockey fans. We currently have much better inspiration available when it comes to panic.
But could the pandemic mean the end of the NHL, or perhaps a dramatic downsizing? That’s a much more realistic possibility than a new season starting on December 1st.
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Mark Madden columns | Penguins / NHL | Sport
