A sustained campaign of mass protests in Mali has presented the most formidable challenge to Ibrahim Boubacar Keita’s presidency since he came to power in 2013.
Dissatisfaction has stemmed from the government’s economic woes and perceived corruption, as well as the government’s failure to contain an increasingly dire security situation that has seen various armed groups compete for power and have made vast stretches of the country ungovernable. .
The multi-layered conflict erupted in 2012 and has since killed tens of thousands of people and displaced hundreds of thousands, while an increasingly unpopular French military intervention and a 15,000-person peacekeeping force of the United Nations United have failed to prevent the violence from spreading to neighboring Niger and Burkina Faso.
Last month, after the disputed results in the March legislative elections, opposition politicians and civil society formed the June 5 Movement, calling for anti-government protests and demanding that Keita resign.
Leading the calls is not an experienced politician but a magnet: Mahmoud Dicko.
Nicknamed “the Imam of the People”, Dicko mobilized tens of thousands last year to force the departure of the Malian Prime Minister. He is now considered the de facto head of the Malian opposition and has been denounced by ECOWAS, the regional political and economic bloc of 15 West African states.
Dicko was born to a family of Muslim scholars in Timbuktu in 1954. He then studied in Mauritania and then at Medina University in Saudi Arabia, an influential school for the global Salafist movement.
Still, Dicko’s brand of Islam defies easy categorization. He has advocated traditional West African Islam, and has defended Mali’s pre-Muslim culture and its reverence for mysticism.
His frankness is not new. Well versed in religious texts, in both Arabic and French, he rose to fame during the 1990s when Mali transitioned to democracy, and became known for his ability to speak on matters of religion, governance, and sometimes , international policy.
In 2009, she successfully led a popular campaign that forced the government to weaken legislation promoting gender equality, and then successfully protested the removal of a school textbook that addressed homosexuality.
His speeches on public morals were widely popular with the Malian public and served to raise his profile, said Ibrahim Yahya Ibrahim, senior analyst at Sahel at the International Crisis Group.
“This was part of the process by which he has been able to position himself as this person who can channel people’s anger toward protest on various issues,” he said.
Dicko’s forays into the public sphere were part of a broader shift in the Muslim-majority country, Yahya added, as religious leaders emboldened to counter what they perceived as rampant “westernization”.
With Dicko’s support, Keita came to power in 2013, pledging to eradicate the rebellion that had erupted in northern Mali the previous year.
As head of the Mali High Islamic Council, Dicko’s influence extended even to armed groups. When fighters seized northern Mali in 2012, he was appointed as an intermediary between the government and Iyad Ag Ghaly, leader of Ansar Dine, an al-Qaeda affiliate who had participated in the rebellion, in a he finally failed in his attempt to reach a solution through negotiations.
As the violence spread to central Mali and accusations of government ineptitude and corruption increased, the president, who was re-elected in 2018, and the imam separated.
Last year, Dicko inflicted a severe blow on the Keita presidency when he was able to mobilize tens of thousands of protesters seeking the resignation of Prime Minister Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga.
Then in September, he stepped down from the Islamic Council to found the Coordination des Mouvements, Associations et Sympathisants (CMAS) movement, before emerging this year as the leader of the June 5 Movement.
“There is poor governance and deep unease in the country. Corruption is rampant. I say it and I say it again!” Dicko told Radio France in June.
Imam Mahmoud Dicko addresses a crowd of supporters at Independence Square in Bamako on June 5 [File: Michele Cattani/AFP]
Alex Thurston, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati, said Dicko’s success lies in the clarity of his demand, that Keita must go, and in his willingness to give others the attention.
“He hasn’t done all this about Mahmoud Dicko,” said Thurston. He added that Dicko’s rise had also been made possible by both the growing popularity of Muslim leaders and the collapse of confidence in political elites.
“Many Malians are very suspicious of the political class and much of the opposition movement was in power before. I am not sure that anyone within the opposition has massive stature and credibility with the public. The clerical class as a whole has a lot more respect “.
When asked about his political ambitions last year, Dicko told Jeune Afrique weekly: “I am not a politician, but I am a leader and I have opinions. If that is political, then I am a politician.”
Some are doubtful. Observers have gone so far as to characterize him as a “Malome Khomeini”, a Trojan horse for the Islamic government, despite the purely secular nature of his demands. Others see him as a potential competitor to Keita.
Such rumors are out of place, said Boubacar Sangare, a Sahel researcher at the Bamako-based Institute for Security Studies.
“I don’t think Imam Dicko wants to enter the political sphere to challenge politicians. He wants to act as a moral authority, who can use his influence to change decisions.”
Looking ahead, Thurston suggests that Dicko could be crucial in bringing armed groups to the negotiating table once again. But the problems that affect Mali do not end there.
“Dicko cannot solve COVID-19 problems and teacher strikes across the country. I think the weakness of the protest movement is that many problems are structural and are getting rid of the leader.” [Keita] It really won’t solve these problems.
“Whoever succeeds him will face crushing problems and pressure.”
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