Los Angeles County, which recently appeared to be on its way to yet another lockdown amid escalating coronavirus cases, is now seeing fewer hospitalizations and a lower transmission rate than health officials said Wednesday is evidence that the People are taking the call to change their behavior.
The country’s most populous county said 2,045 people were hospitalized, 28% of them in intensive care units. But the number of new hospitalizations is showing a “very gradual slowdown” and projections call for a slight decrease in cases over the next four weeks, said Dr. Christina Ghaly, director of the county’s Department of Health Services.
The county saw 91 additional deaths, a new daily record due in part to lagging reports, but the number of deaths has generally decreased since May, county health director Barbara Ferrer said.
Ghaly said that statistically, the transmission rate shows that any infected person is transmitting the virus to less than another person.
“While we are seeing the results of strict adherence to best practices, such as wearing face covers, washing hands, quarantining and isolating, physically distancing ourselves, these practices must continue,” said Ghaly.
The county had seen drops in its COVID-19 cases after months of stay-at-home orders that closed many businesses, beaches and other recreational areas and banned large social gatherings. But after the relaxation of those health orders began, the virus began to emerge in early June, prompting Governor Gavin Newsom to reimpose some shutdown orders earlier this month.
The decrease in the county’s hospitalization rate “coincides with the reduction in reopening at the local and state level a few weeks ago,” Ghaly said.
Each of California’s 58 counties now has COVID-19 cases. Modoc County confirmed its first two cases Tuesday. The remote county bordering Oregon and Nevada was the first to challenge state shutdown orders to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
Statewide, California reported 197 additional deaths Tuesday, a grim new daily record, and nearly 8,800 new cases. The state has now had more than 466,500 cases and more than 8,500 deaths, according to the California Department of Public Health.
Los Angeles County has played a significant role in those numbers, with more than 183,000 confirmed cases and more than 4,500 deaths.
Earlier this month, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti had warned that the situation in Los Angeles had become so weak that a city shutdown might be necessary. But on Wednesday he said there would be no additional closings if the hopeful signs continue.
The county estimated that one in 450 residents was infectious, down from one in 320 last week, Garcetti said, and urged people to follow health and safety measures.
“This is a watershed moment for Los Angeles in our response to COVID-19,” he said.
The county reported more than 4,800 additional cases Wednesday, but Ferrer said it was due to an accumulation of about 2,000 positive test results from the state’s reporting system.
The decrease in the transmission rate means that only 15% of county residents will have been infected with COVID-19 in December, while the highest rates could increase it by as much as 50%, Ferrer said.
“The point is that, as a community, we are again absolutely capable of controlling this virus,” said Ferrer. “We have accomplished a lot by controlling our own behaviors in just a few weeks.”
But he added: “It remains to be seen if this is a trend that we can maintain in the coming days and weeks.”
For most people, the new coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough, that disappear within two to three weeks. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more serious illnesses, such as pneumonia and death.
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