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As Arvydas Pocius, former commander of the Armed Forces and member of the Seimas Defense and National Security Committee, pointed out in the Open Radio talk, in addition to Russia and Belarus, soldiers from Armenia, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Pakistan and Sri Lanka participated in the exercise.
There were about 500 soldiers from these countries, but, according to A. Pocius, the number itself is not significant.
“Before we joined NATO, in Lithuania, when we organized military exercises, we had enough one soldier, for example, an American, and this is the American flag on the flagpole. Nobody sees how many soldiers participated, (…) if the state is already sending at least one soldier, (…) it is the participation of the state, ”he said.
At the same time, he recalled that a joint exercise between Russia and China had recently been held. In parallel, Zapad21 organized exercises in the Arctic. According to A. Pocius, all of them are directed against NATO.
Marius Laurinavičius, an analyst at the Eastern European Studies Center (RESC), who participated in the program, pointed out that it is too early to talk about all these countries (especially India, considering American relations) that are really on the side of Russia against NATO. . But he said he was noticing that Russia and China were trying to form a global alliance against the free world and its organizations.
“These exercises are used to form an alliance against the free world against NATO, the European Union,” said M. Laurinavičius.
An offensive operation against the NATO Alliance was rehearsed
In general, when talking about Zapad21, the interlocutors agreed that it was a military exercise that was not fundamentally exceptional in any way. These exercises are carried out every four years.
Russia, Belarus, explain to their audience that this is a defensive exercise. However, its settings, actors and actions reveal a different reality.
“If the air force is involved in the exercise, there is no defense here. These are the elements of the attacking army. In this exercise, the scenario shows that initially the ‘bad guys’ that we are, the Neris (Poland) and the Nordic countries (the NATO Alliance), they are attacking their allied republic Belarus, and the ‘terrorist’ operations are moving towards attack. So all the scenarios of what they wanted to solve during this exercise are already emerging. “This is an offensive operation. against the NATO Alliance, “Pocius explained.
The RESC analyst claimed that the same scenario is visible again: Russia is preparing for war with NATO.
“This is demonstrated not only by the exercise (…), but also by the entire preparation of society, the defense budget. (…) But that message certainly does not mean that this war will start tomorrow. It doesn’t even mean that it will necessarily start, “said M. Laurinavičius.
A. Pocius, a member of the Seimas NSGK, noted that along with such actions, Russia is demonstrating the indestructibility of the state of the Union.
There were things of audacity never seen before
During these exercises there were also elements of audacity never seen before on the stage itself. In that scenario, Belarus is coded as “Polesia”.
“The Vilnius region seems to belong to Polesia, that is, to Belarus,” said Pocius.
According to the politician, you have to try to understand what that message means.
“Are these claims? Is it what was once heard from V. Putin that in 1945 the Klaipėda region was handed over to Lithuania, that in 1939, after depriving the Poles, they gave us the Vilnius region? These are messages that must be taken into account, ”said A. Pocius.
The exercise was carried out in several directions.
According to a member of the Seimas NSGK, the Suwalki Corridor was not stressed during these Zapad exercises.
“This is one of the possible threats, where the scissor forces from Belarus and the Kaliningrad region could suddenly cut us off from the arrival of NATO reinforcement forces. Now there was no emphasis on that.
But this should not be forgotten. “The arrival of NATO reinforcement forces by land and rail is very important to us,” said A. Pocius.
However, he suggested not to forget that the exercise also took place in the Baltic Sea.
“Both the submarines and other ships of the Baltic Fleet have performed certain tasks without allowing NATO forces to enter the Baltic states,” said A. Pocius.
It was not ruled out that some of the provocations could be attributed to the exercise
The politician did not rule out that the migration crisis on the Lithuanian border was also caused by linking it to these exercises.
“It just came to our attention then. This was recognized both by the leadership of the EU and by the ministers and prime ministers of Poland and the Baltic countries,” said A. Pocius.
The interlocutor pointed out that the Belarusian border guards belong to the KGB. An event was recorded when nine Belarusian border guards entered the territory of Lithuania, pushing the refugees.
“It just came to our knowledge then. It was examined how our diplomacy would react (or there would be a note), how the border guards would react. These are elements in which I would not rule out that it was related to the exercise. Everything was in parallel,” said A. Pocius.
He tested a rocket that can carry a nuclear cartridge.
The interlocutor also pointed out that during this exercise, Russia launched an Iskander missile, which was a training shot.
“As we know Iskander can carry a nuclear cartridge, there are also some messages and recyclables here,” said A. Pocius.
In general, the interlocutor pointed out that it is a strategic-level exercise in which even the president, as commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, gets involved in ordering the military leadership to carry out a task.
“Certain cybersecurity operations were also carried out during these exercises,” Pocius said.
The intensification of military cooperation is worrying
A RESC analyst said that for the Zapad exercise itself, military cooperation between Russia and Belarus has become particularly active this year.
“It just came to our attention then. The armies are largely integrated. (…) But that military cooperation, in my opinion, is very important and worthy of mention.
Even the latest message that Belarus is preparing to buy arms from Russia for a billion dollars. Russia is simply reallocating its billion dollar armaments at our borders. The aspect that pays for what is not so important, because Belarus, in my opinion, is politically a Russian province, ”said M. Laurinavičius.
MP A. Pocius said that even after these exercises, it is necessary to control which weapons Russia will leave in Belarus.
“I think that is also sending a message to Russia that they will not give up Belarus like Ukraine,” he said.
Show confidence in NATO
A member of the Seimas NSGK believes that Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland are on the right track in this situation.
“Decisions made at previous NATO summits to transfer NATO front forces to these countries. As you know, here we have a battalion of NATO front forces led by Germany, reinforced by other NATO countries. There are Canadians in Latvia, British in Estonia and Americans in Poland. The NATO umbrella over our countries is important, “said A. Pocius.
But, he says, that doesn’t mean we don’t have to be attentive to ourselves.
“We need to invest in our armed forces because we are members of NATO, and we have to show the Allies that we have the politics and the will to defend the nation.” As we observe these exercises, we must realize that we are a country on the eastern flank of NATO, where the threat is beyond our national borders.
Politicians are doing this to keep Americans here permanently, as is the case in Poland, and that is the right way to go. The NATO principle that one for all, one for all, works and must work, ”said A. Pocius.
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