Zapad – a stir in the Baltic Sea: one of the most peaceful countries in the world sheds billions in total defense

Sweden is among the 20 most peaceful countries in the world in the annual World Peace Index. This year it was ranked 15th (for comparison, Lithuania was 37th), but it looks like Sweden won’t last long into the 1920s. Not because it is against peace.

Since 2015, when the new Swedish Total Defense Concept was approved and an increase in defense spending is planned, it already seemed that the Swedes, concerned about their security after the events in Ukraine, would regain the share of military power that they once they had in five years.

“It was a change of direction when it comes to military capabilities. We have made some progress over the years, but that is not enough because the funding was insufficient, ”said Paul Johnson, chairman of the Defense Committee of the Swedish Parliament, in Delfi.

In 2016-2020, more funds were planned for Swedish defense: in 2017 alone, 45 billion. crowns (4.7 billion euros), one billion crowns more next year and thus up to 50 billion crowns a year. crowns (5,240 million euros) in 2020. But that was not enough either.

Finally, last December, the Swedish parliament approved a much more ambitious defense financing plan for 2021-2025: defense spending is forecast to increase by 40%. or up to $ 8.9 billion. euros. It is planned to expand the army itself by establishing new or rebuilding old units, increasing the wartime forces of 60,000. up to 90 thousand. troops, additional acquisition of new weapons, machinery and equipment. All of this is not done by chance, nor by itself, in coordination with the Allies and in the run-up to NATO supporters in Sweden’s undisputed goal of membership in the Alliance. But why should Swedes care?

Awakening, perception and what’s next?

For more than a decade, trends in Sweden have been clear: After the end of the Cold War, the country’s army has risen by 250,000. it was reduced to 22 thousand. troops, and the defense budget fell 2.3 percent. GDP at only 1.2 percent. in 2013.

The first awakening was the night flight of Russian strategic bombers to Stockholm on March 29 of that year. The bombers, which approached Swedish airspace only at the last minute, turned and turned back, but the simulated cruise missile attack alarmed the Swedish army and politicians. The latter woke up only after the Russian invasion of Crimea. Sweden began to realize that they couldn’t feel safe either.

In public documents and statements by Swedish decision-makers, the phrase “military aggression against Sweden is currently unlikely” has been replaced by “undeniable”. The only source of threat is also clear: Russia. In 2018, the feature film Den blomstertid nu kommer, which became very popular, even appeared in Sweden, and was translated by foreign distributors as ‘Unimaginable’. It was until then that the unlikely scenario of the Russian invasion became undeniable and a reality.

Swedes who know history well know what it means to be unprepared for war with Russia. Sweden is still mistaken for neutral: since 1812, when Russia defeated the war and temporarily lost the island of Gotland, the country declared a policy of neutrality and Sweden fought only once.

Once again, Sweden has not managed to lose Gotland: it is not for nothing that this strategically important island is called an unsinkable aircraft carrier: whoever controls Gotland can, in principle, control most of the Baltic Sea, both by sea and by air. Since 2017, Sweden has officially rebuilt the Gotaland Regiment – the so-called unit with roughly 350 soldiers in nominal terms is just a small shadow of Gotland’s defense forces, which numbered roughly 22,000 during the Cold War. soldiers.

Since then, however, Sweden has gradually strengthened its defense forces on Gotland and, at the end of August, has reinforced the mechanized, infantry and tank companies already on the island with additional armored units.

Swedish troops with portable and ground-launched Hellfires and Puma AE. pic.twitter.com/xHhO85qikS

– tom (@tom_bullock_) August 31, 2021

Additional anti-aircraft, anti-ship and anti-tank defense capabilities have also been deployed here and, more importantly, intelligence and communications activities have been intensified, with close monitoring of Russian actions over the Baltic Sea.

Russia cannot stop reacting to the exercise

The Swedish “Korpen” reconnaissance aircraft regularly patrols here, receiving signals from the Kaliningrad region, where a reinforced military group is preparing for the next “Zapad” military exercise. It is this exercise in which Russia has officially declared more than 200 thousand. The participants, according to the chairman of the defense committee of the Swedish Parliament, are probably the most worrying factors.

Swedish Air Force Korpen and AEW observing the build-up of forces in Kaliningrad. pic.twitter.com/Fovgmjbe8a

– Jamming (@balticjam) September 7, 2021

Overall, three things are concerning: the extremely low line between peace and the use of military force, the aggressive actions we have already seen against Ukraine and Sakartwell, and the strengthening of Russia’s military capabilities and aggressive behavior in the Baltic Sea region. Especially when it comes to Zapad, it is a more important exercise than before in qualitative terms, because it is a joint exercise that uses new technologies and long-range capabilities, ”said Jonson.

According to him, Russia is not transparent, especially with regard to Zapad: on the one hand, the declared number of exercise participants in a training camp does not exceed 12,800 in the Vienna documents, but there are dozens of such training camps. where Russia and Belarus are training Zapad this year from OSCE participating states. It is not possible to estimate what will happen in other landfills, because Russia does not manufacture them.

“That is why it would not be wise not to react.” We have to understand that Russia has significantly developed its capabilities, uses them in a non-transparent way and that worries us, “Johnson said. He recalled the alarming actions of the Kremlin in the spring, when Russia unexpectedly started to concentrate forces on the border with Ukraine, and although some of the soldiers later withdrew, some of the machinery and equipment remained on the border.

“In addition, when major military exercises are carried out, the risk of incidents is also high,” said the parliamentarian.

Civil defense lessons

The fact that Sweden is preparing for possible surprises on the island of Gotland is no longer surprising. However, as Mr. Johnson pointed out, Sweden has also made progress in strengthening the Total Defense concept. It is mainly based not only on the strengthening of the army itself, but also on the principles of civil defense. This means that over the last 5 years, Sweden has drawn up a very clear plan, assigned civil protection officers and conducted regular exercises.

As in the Cold War, officials assigned to wartime tasks, from members of the government to officials in smaller municipalities, need to know their role in what to do in the event of war.

Unlike in Lithuania, these exercises in Sweden were carried out not only in offices, marking formally or simply on paper, when in the event of a more serious crisis it becomes clear that the government and municipalities cannot even communicate, but actually , simulating the most dramatic situations.

“The greatest progress has been made with the assignment of civil servants, which in Sweden is understood as a civic duty. There are some advances in communications security, but of course there is still a long way to go,” said Jonson. without hiding.

Thanks to the EU, but we are looking at NATO

One of its clear goals is Sweden’s membership in NATO. However, the MP acknowledged that “strong support for membership in the Alliance in Sweden is growing, but more discussions are needed” has not changed so far.

“So far, there are about a third of supporters, opponents and skeptics of the members. And although NATO supporters are growing: two years ago, two parties changed their position to” for the Alliance “, we still do not have a majority. And who would weigh me, I’m not going to guess, the majority will have to decide, “said Jonson.

Sweden, on the other hand, has less and less room for maneuver: it rejected the idea put forward by EU bureaucrats that a rapid response force should be established for the community after the chaotic evacuation of Kabul. It relied on the Allies, but not about the bureaucrats who issued “strong warnings to the Taliban” in Brussels.

But Sweden, which has renounced neutrality, is also strengthening its cooperation with NATO every year, as well as with its most important and active countries in bilateral or other formats. The first of these countries is the United States, whose bombers have repeatedly flown over Sweden in recent years, and American special forces have been training with Swedish reservists on the island of Gotland.

Unofficially, it is said that US special forces, as in Lithuania and Sweden, constantly have at least one team ready to act in the event of a crisis. In a multilateral format, Sweden is also actively cooperating with the United Kingdom, which is the leader of the Joint Expeditionary Forces (JEF) and has repeatedly conducted exercises in the Baltic Sea. Lithuania is also actively involved in JEF. Finally, Jonson himself made clear in the interview the threshold through which it would be too early for the EU to cross.

“The EU’s cooperation with NATO is very supportive, especially through the PESCO mobility project, but when it comes to collective defense, it should be entrusted to NATO. It will take Europe itself many years to fend for itself and be able to take charge of its own defense, “said Johnson.