Ž.Pavilionis, which mentions tanks and daggers, on A.Lukašenkas: “This guy no longer has double digit support”

Both political scientists and ordinary Belarusians 15 minutes reiterates that the current generation has yet to see the kind of protests that are now sweeping Belarus.

And perhaps not so much to support the opposition candidate Svetlana Tichanovskaya on the streets as to speak out against the boring Lukashenko, there are mass trips not only in the capital Minsk, but also in the regions. Tens of thousands of people gathered in Brest, Grodno.

“Island of stability” – storms

Can these elections be the beginning of the end of the Lukashenko regime? Ž.Pavilionis says it is unequivocal and, by the way, “knows” that S.Tichanovskaja “is already taking the current president in actual polls that I have seen.

There is little doubt that an even larger demonstration awaits the neighboring country when the regime no longer falsifies the election results for the first time. What will or should be the position of Lithuania then? Everything in the West?

Finally, there is Russia, which Lukashenko himself tries to trap in the election campaign, although he is still the best candidate for the Kremlin, which hardly fears criticism and reproaches from Minsk, even weak. Moscow knows that the Lukashenko regime would be doomed without Russia’s support.

Addressing the country on Tuesday, the president spoke a lot about the fact that Belarus is supposedly an island of stability throughout Eurasia, that the economy is doing well.

That there is no need for Minsk to explain the safety of the Astrava nuclear power plant, which is likely to start operating this week.

That Belarus is included in the meat factory of the color revolutions, that the goal is to destroy the state, that the extremists are operating.

That young people do not get into political games and, furthermore, that the regime does not play them, at least on the Internet, because “we are not going to go to the bottom and call those who do not like prostitutes and whores.”

Independent polls show that Lukashenko would lose the elections in the first round, according to the research, which testifies to a huge advantage for Tikhanyovskaya.

According to Ž.Pavilionis, this is all nonsense: the people of Belarus have longed for change, they want freedom and responsibility for the life of the state.

“We must listen to the Belarusians and help them if necessary. In fact, we are already helping, but more needs to be done.” 15 minutes confirmed by Ž.Pavilionis, who has many years of diplomatic experience.

By the way, according to sources from the portal, independent polls show that Lukashenko would lose the elections already in the first round, which the investigations testify to a great advantage of S. Tikhanovskaya.

Wages are falling and the virus is killing

– Do you agree with those who say that now we can talk about the beginning of the end of the Lukashenko regime, or is this speculation naive after all?

– I have always wanted a change in the East and I am afraid of deceiving myself. But there was never such a mass in the streets, only at the beginning of independence, and then Lukashenko came and turned everything off.

Not only the cities, but also the regions, have never taken to the streets. The main protesters were ordinary suspects who, by the way, are all seated now, like Pavel Severinec.

This time the nation, the regions, rebelled. Behind Svetlana Tikhanovskaya are the big cities, the young people, who are fed up with Lukashenko’s knowledge of cycling with cows and all those camps. They sit on social media and are just like us.

Tichanovskaya is not a politician, but the people are already tired of the regime. Also, Lukashenko did not try to control the coronavirus as emperor, but spit it out.

And polls show that ordinary people are the most angry about it: the dictator who had to give us attention, security and stability killed us. The average wage is falling, the virus is killing, Lukashenko is launching Chernobyl and selling the country to Russia.

– Well, now you are in the opposite position: Russia is interfering, sending Wagner contractors and defending Belarus.

– It is precisely because he wants to cover his role. In my opinion, Lukashenko has been the governor of Russia for 25 years.

There is no other country like Belarus that has so voluntarily joined Russia: all Western treaties have been suspended. They are at the level of 1991, if we talk about relations with Europe.

Drills and tanks

– The situation, however, is quite paradoxical. The Donald Trump administration has been tempting Minsk in recent months, with Mike Pompeo visiting to discuss oil sales. At the same time, Babaryka or Tikhanyovskaya himself is said to be Russian people.

Perhaps Russia was angry with Lukashenko and provoked protests against his regime? The United States wants a stable Belarus, and might Moscow want to pressure Lukashenko and play the opposition? Who is standing here? Is it not the case that Russia will support the opposition and the West will support Lukashenko?

– We must not err. I remember both March 11 and January 13, when Western leaders sent us letters explaining: “Stop, men, be good, Gorbachev is so good.”

As Lukashenko is playing now. But we spit on everything, and then Westerners told us we were right. The Americans also officially recognized us as one of the last.

That is why it must be said that the United States is not only official. The civil servant is more cautious, since he may have to play with this dictator if he is able to turn everything off. But there is another United States that is active in the region and supports freedom.

We should not worry about what we support. Many places can be shared, but the most important thing should be that there is no democracy and no freedom in Belarus.

All this logic is breaking down here, how can you say that Moscow plays in the streets when Moscow is not a street?

Moscow understood what the streets are, in Maidan or before in Lithuania, now in Khabarovsk. We also sent the Gorbachev who was arriving at that time.

We should not worry about what we support. Many places can be shared, but the most important thing should be that there is no democracy and no freedom in Belarus.

I don’t believe those tales. The KGB may be working, planning something, but if the tanks see hundreds of thousands of crowds, the cleanup will no longer stop.

I think that is exactly what will happen this Sunday. Lukashenko and the Kremlin have nothing else to do, if they try to stab each other in the tank. And when that happens, Belarusians will hear “amen” in their minds; It was the same for me on January 13th. That was the beginning of the end.

Not everything will happen on Sunday exactly now, but it will start on that day. If the protests are suppressed by force, things will end as they did on the Maidan.

– Mr. Pavilioni, but after all, the situation in the USSR of 1991, which was already on your side, and today’s Russia are different, right? That time was fukuyami, end of story, everyone applauded the cats, America won the Cold War. And now the blizzard autocracy is becoming more and more popular.

– No, I’m not really saying that this is the beginning of the end of the Putin regime. But Lukashenko, perhaps. It is this joke of the dictator that is no longer funny for Belarusians: the country is on the verge of total loss of independence.

And the situation was created by Lukashenko himself. Nobody asked Belarus to join Russia, that was Lukashenko’s motto.

Putin is now pressing him with two main demands: a full signing of the Alliance Treaty and the release of Astrava. And by dropping a targeting bomb to destroy and at the same time control the entire region, it is putting Belarus into debt at the same time.

Yes, Lukashenko will release Astrava, according to instructions from Moscow. This means that the nation that is now on the streets is not on the side of Moscow, but on our side because the nation is against Astrava.

One must not be misled: Lukashenko is a true agent, a builder and an instrument of Russia. If his government ends, we will have the opportunity to open the door to Belarus in the same way that we open it to Ukraine. The question is whether we are ready or do we have an alternative plan, option B. The Kremlin really does.

The most pro-Russian is Lukashenko himself

– What option do you think Russia has? Suppose there is chaos in Belarus, riots, what is Moscow doing? What were you afraid of?

The Jamestown Foundation recently considered the situation in Minsk to be different from Ukraine in 2014, as Russia at the time remembered perfectly the 2008 NATO document, which said Ukraine and Sakartwell might one day join the Alliance.

This posed a threat to Moscow, and in 2014 it was decided to take action: Crimea was taken, the conflict in Donbas was frozen. Belarus has not made any statement about NATO to Belarus. Do you see a difference that could make you expect a weaker hurricane?

– It is precisely more difficult for Russia to carry out special tasks in Belarus. After all, the current opposition is not talking about unconditional integration in the West. That’s what our friends say in prisons.

The current protesters, Svetlana herself, are talking about one thing: free elections, freedom of choice, freedom of speech, freedom of assembly.

Sending tanks against freedom is much more difficult. I do not think that Russia is committing itself to a military intervention, but it does not need it; In military terms, Belarus is already part of Russia. Moscow already has everything in Minsk, and now it is important that it does not lose Lukashenko.

– Do you think that even Lukashenko, who talks about the Russian intervention, needs the Kremlin?

– Lukashenko is simply lying, calling himself the guarantor of the independence of Belarus. Both historically and geopolitically, no leader in our region has so ruined the identity of his country.

The Soviet army is glorified, important agreements are not signed with Europe and integration with Russia is promoted. The last stone is Astrava.

I don’t see a more pro-Russian politician in Belarus than Lukashenko. Many of these aspects are unacceptable to Belarusians: people just want to live in safety, freedom and security.

In any case, I think there is no alternative to traveling to Europe, but at the moment, the Belarusian opposition does not make such demands, they just want to live in Europe.

Free, full and secure are essential human interests. Lithuanians also started our journey from the basic requirements. Let people feel like people, and if the tanks appear, it will mean the end of the regime.

Will we, a free and independent country that defended independence 30 years ago, agree to deprive our historical brothers of the right to live humanely?

Fact one: the election will be 100 percent. Steal. By all the data, Svetlana wins, and this guy doesn’t even have double-digit support.

This is obvious to anyone who takes the situation seriously. Will we, a free and independent country that defended independence 30 years ago, agree to deprive our historical brothers of the right to live humanely?

Definitely not. We need to think about individual sanctions and other measures for those who commit crimes.

But neither should we close ourselves off from the people of Belarus. Mr Lukashenko would like that very much, but we must help those on the streets to support them legally, politically and financially, to show openness and a possible alternative to Mr Lukashenko in every possible way.

Vilnius: the brain of Belarus

– Mode – one, people – other, great. With all due respect to Ukraine and Sakartvel, Belarus is much closer and more relevant – the long border, Astrava. Perhaps we would like more active actions in Vilnius?

– We have a 600 km long border, of course, Astrava. But there is no other city in the world like Vilnius with independent Belarusian centers and non-governmental organizations that Lukashenko does not register.

They all work for us. There is also a European University of Humanities, which educates the Belarusian elite, as if it were in Skorina.

There are also all foreign organizations in Vilnius that help Belarusians, from Germans to Swedes to Americans.

We are like a transitional courtyard, but we do not have the brain, the will, the idea, we are not the leaders of the process, although things are happening here, next door, that can change our destiny. However, I think the situation will change after Sunday, because it is a national matter.

Politically, we don’t have any color, it is a national interest and an opportunity to be more active. Ambitious policies need to be formulated and 10 million people across the border must feel empowered.

– Of course, the West must always balance the desire to help people and the unwillingness to give the impression of interfering in the internal affairs of another country – Russia is very fond of talking about foreign agents. How to do this with regard to Belarus? After all, allegations of interference can ring out very quickly.

– Our conscience is absolutely clear. We have no offer to Belarus from the West in the geopolitical sense. It can only happen when the Belarusians themselves want it.

However, we must defend the right of Belarusians to decide for themselves. The Belarusian people are clearly not with Lukashenko, they obviously want a change. It is enough for Tikhanyovskaya to hint at a change, and it all comes together.

We, as neighbors who were in exactly the same situation 30 years ago, must support the people who have the right to decide.

If we are a democracy and we respect ourselves, we must support the Belarusians.