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After more than 250 days without local coronavirus infection, Taiwan on December 22. reported the first case in a country that ended the world’s longest virus-free period. On the same day, Thailand recorded 427 new cases, a staggering jump in infections in the country, which announced in September that it had survived for 100 days without local infections.
“Unfortunately, in countries where there were actually very few infections and which seemed to have cleared the virus, it’s very easy to go back,” said Peter Collignon, professor of infectious diseases at the Australian National University School of Medicine in Canberra. “I am concerned that when the term ‘elimination’ is used, people feel that it no longer exists and that they can go back to their normal activities and not follow any restrictions.”
The Asia-Pacific region has largely avoided the uncontrollable outbreaks that continue to plague the United States and Europe, but the continuation of the pandemic in other parts of the world means it can recur where infections have been controlled locally, even with restrictions. border and mandatory quarantine.
The Taiwan case involves a woman who had contact with an airline pilot who had recently arrived from the United States; Meanwhile, the chimney in Sydney, which also erupted a few months later with only a few local infections, is likely related to a hotel employee who quarantined returnees.
Japan, Korea
With the onset of winter, there are also recurring outbreaks in other parts of the region that are known to have managed to control the virus. South Korea and Japan have been able to control the increase in cases to manageable levels most of the year without introducing quarantines or other restrictions, as other countries have done.
They now face record jumps in infections as the previous strategy is hampered by fatigue of people from the pandemic and their migration inland when the weather cools.
Countries that have managed to achieve minimal or no spread of the virus may need to apply much stricter controls to keep the scale of cases at zero, Collignon said.
This strategy has been applied in countries like China, Australia and New Zealand, which have introduced some extremely strict measures to eradicate fires. Life in those countries has largely returned to normal, although masks are still worn in some places, such as Beijing, and Australians are still prohibited from traveling outside the country.
Rather than trying to completely eradicate the virus, Collignon said, it might be better to try to keep the infection rate low. In that case, “residents would continue to maintain a physical distance, not go to work when ill, avoid contact with family members when ill, and wear masks because the virus appears to continue to spread in society,” he said.
Travel risk
According to Collignon, the coronavirus crisis will continue for another two to three years, even with the introduction of vaccines, which, according to the professor, may be more effective in preventing the vaccinated person than in stopping the spread of the virus.
“You can be more or less safe in your own country,” he said. “But as soon as you decide to travel, you still take the risk.”
The possibility of recurring outbreaks in society may negate some of the success stories to date. Taiwan ranks second in Bloomberg’s COVID resilience rating, reflecting the most resilient areas in the COVID era; Thailand ranks 14th out of 53 economies evaluated, and New Zealand openly announces a virus eradication strategy at the top of the list.
As virus outbreaks recur, certain movement restrictions may be reintroduced in these areas. Just before the virus recurred, Thailand eased restrictions on travelers from 56 countries, including the United States, Japan and Singapore, in an effort to revive the country’s stagnant tourism sector before the peak of the Christmas season. Taiwan has said it will consider tightening controls on flight crews.
The importance of vaccination
In South Korea, whose elite test contact tracing practices have become a global model, health care officials have acknowledged that the recent outbreak has severely hampered the fight against the virus, as small outbreaks of infections they spread much faster throughout the country.
“From now on, we will live with the virus all the time, it will not be eliminated,” said Nigel Mcmilland, director of the program for immunology and infectious diseases at the Menzies Institute of Health at Griffith University in Queensland. “Things like constant testing, contact tracing and isolation of close contacts, quarantine of incoming foreign visitors, sailors and flight crew are important here.”
“The vaccination will eventually turn the illness into something like the flu,” Mcmilland said.
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