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Chinese President Xi Jinping’s decision to congratulate Lukashenko on his victory in the presidential election was the best gift he could hope for from the leader of Belarus, who was called the last European dictator.
According to T. Umarov, support from the world’s second largest economy was highly anticipated as Lukashenko became increasingly dependent on Russia due to the post-election crisis.
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Ideally, Lukashenko would like not only to strike a balance between East and West, but also to take advantage of the differences between Moscow and Beijing. However, there are few such disagreements, and China is working to avoid confrontation with Russia in its efforts to expand its influence in Eastern Europe, including Belarus.
According to the author, the main impetus for Minsk to seek closer relations with China were the oil wars with the Kremlin in the early 2000s and the European Union (EU) sanctions.
In 2005, Lukashenko visited China, from where he returned with many promises. Trade between the countries began to grow, 180 million. dollars in 2000 to 2 billion. dollars in 2008. Chinese direct investment in Belarus has also increased, reaching 24 million dollars by the end of the decade. Dollars
However, Belarus is far from China and has no significant natural resources, severely limiting cooperation between the countries, writes T. Umarov. carnegie.ru.
In 2010, China’s interests in Eastern Europe were revived due to the global financial crisis. When demand for Chinese products fell in the West, Beijing was forced to seek new markets. Ultimately, these searches led to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and coincided with a major economic crisis in Belarus.
According to the author, although China’s role in the Belarusian economy has been growing steadily since then, Beijing cannot and does not want to seriously compete with Moscow. China is Belarus’ third largest trading partner, but in January-June 2020, trade with the country accounted for 7% and with Russia for 48.5%.
Umarov notes that China’s economic interests in Belarus do not interfere with Russia. These latter state-owned enterprises are trying to participate in the privatization of large state-owned industrial enterprises in Belarus, and China is interested in small factories.
“There is no reason why Russia and China should seriously disagree or compete in Belarus. Moscow fully understands what game Lukashenko is playing with Beijing, sees no major threat to himself in his endeavors, and does not try to poke his nails into the wheels.
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Russian leaders see China’s position in Eastern Europe, including Belarus, strengthened through the prism of its confrontation with the West. China is expanding its presence in the region with an alternative to the EU. At the same time, Moscow and Beijing understand each other and sometimes coordinate their actions, “the author writes.
He points out that Chinese projects in Belarus have not lived up to expectations, and even successful ones have shortcomings.
No matter how Lukashenko tries to show concern for Belarus’s relations with China and Xi Jinping, the country does not take China’s business interests seriously, Chinese society is not interested in Belarus and its events, said my author.
When protests broke out after the elections, the Chinese media covered them dryly, avoiding the sensitive topic of demonstrations. As the protests spread, the Chinese media began to pay more and more attention to them, but only cited official statements from Lukashenko, comments from Vladimir Putin and Sergei Lavrov, which the Russian media write. The statements by Chinese officials were also cautious, writes Umarov.
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According to the author, Beijing does not see any sense in openly supporting one or the other party in the political crisis in Belarus, given the uncertainty. China is simply avoiding loud statements and leaving room for maneuver for Russia, which has more instruments of influence and more to lose.
Umarov writes that it is easy for Beijing to work with Lukashenko, but after his overthrow, China will seek common ground with his successor.
For almost a month there have been unprecedented protests in Belarus over the presidential elections on August 9, which were won by the authoritarian leader Lukashenko, who has ruled the country since 1994. The opposition and Western countries consider these elections to be rigged .
The largest protests took place on August 16 and 23, when more than 100,000 people took to the streets. people, publish the media.
During the first days of the protests, some 7,000 people were arrested. people died, but the exact number is unknown.
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