Why is Russia in no hurry to help Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

Unlike other former Soviet republics with frozen conflicts (Sacartwell, Ukraine and Moldova), Azerbaijan has never been a hostile state to Russia. This country has never been ruled by a government with anti-Russian rhetoric, it has not declared the emancipation of Russia as its main objective.

Azerbaijan’s anti-colonial rhetoric is always moderate, recognizing the pros and cons of two centuries of Azerbaijani life with Russians and other nations in one state, writes A. Baunov.

For Vladimir Putin, who is becoming the new Leonid Brezhnev due to his actions on historical memory, it is very important that Azerbaijan, like Belarus, does not offer an alternative history about the beginning and the end of World War II, the role of the USSR in the conflict. Furthermore, Azerbaijan pays tribute to its war heroes, does not provide them with anti-Soviet and anti-Russian counterweights and celebrates Victory Day.

AFP / Scanpix Photo / Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh

At the same time, the establishment, sovereignty and emancipation of the state of Azerbaijan rapidly occurred. For a long time there have been no monuments to Lenin or streets named after Soviet heroes. But the monuments are gone, just as the dismantling process unfolded in silence, it is written carnegie.ru.

As late as the 1990s, almost immediately after the collapse of the USSR, two-thirds of Russians living in Azerbaijan had fled, and Russian television had long since disappeared from the national radio waves, preventing the population from facing an attack. Russian interpretation of world news. However, on the eve of the New Year, “Irony of Fate” is still shown, and all year long favorite Soviet and popular Russian films are shown.

“From the beginning, Azerbaijan has developed a diverse foreign policy, believing that relations with Moscow will not disappear in the post-Soviet space, but will be weak, so it is necessary to approach the West,” writes Baunov.

In addition, Baku has perceived sympathy for the Armenians in the government of Boris Yeltsin: there is an interpretation that Azerbaijan lost the first Karabakh war not against the Armenians but against Russia.

According to the author, the Azerbaijani regime accepted unwanted guests from Chechnya in Moscow, but abandoned political Islamism, as well as extreme political nationalism, thus successfully controlling the Islamization of society.

Azerbaijan cooperated with NATO and sent symbolic contingents to operations, but never formally declared its intention to join the Alliance.

Russia accepts the political emancipation of Azerbaijan as a fact that does not irritate anyone. “Azerbaijan in the post-Soviet space has always been an example of how an internal policy that is relatively independent from Russia can be pursued without arguing with Putin and maintaining good relations with Moscow,” Baunov wrote.

Scanpix / ITAR-TASS photo / Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh

According to the author, Russia has something to help Armenia with, but nothing to punish Azerbaijan for. Neither the Russian government nor society has enough anger and resentment to use military force easily against Azerbaijan.

Unforgivable sins

Armenia is an important ally of Russia, but the Kremlin is suspicious of the current government. The current government of Armenia is the result of the color revolution, which, in the eyes of the Kremlin, is a great sin of internal politics, it is written. carnegie.ru.

The declared democratic government of Nikol Pashinian, while not trying to completely change its geopolitical orientation, is trying to diversify it, probably not always listening to Moscow’s opinion.

This government in no way restricts freedom of the press, which has led to more posts critical of Russia and pro-Western. Furthermore, the Pashin government does not control in any way, on the contrary, it welcomes the activities of Western non-governmental organizations. From the Kremlin’s point of view, such uncontrolled activities are a violation of the common security chain, writes A. Baunov.

The new Armenian government could not prevent the second serious crime, in the eyes of the Kremlin, the persecution of former President Robert Kocharian.

AFP / Scanpix Photo / Nikolas Pašinianas

Pasinyan himself highlights his opposition to the dictatorship of Azerbaijan. In the eyes of the world, the young democracy is being the victim of the aggression of a dictatorship. On the one hand, it is true: there is an authoritarian regime in Azerbaijan that is also inherited.

However, it is difficult to condemn the dictatorship and demand Putin’s support at the same time. The Russian president himself is one of the most prominent dictators in the world, and all his actions are being portrayed as a dictatorial attack on democracy. The struggle of a young democracy against a dictatorial regime is unlikely to inspire an ally to help, writes A. Baunov.

Intercession, not interference

Armenia is an ally of Russia, but Azerbaijan is not an enemy either. This is a key issue in the current phase of the conflict. Turkey, which supports Azerbaijan, is not an enemy either. If the US-backed Sacartwell were attacked, things would be much simpler. It would also be easier to decide whether Ukraine or Moldova would restore their territorial integrity in this way.

According to the author, the partnership with Turkey, despite the contradictions, allows Russia to remain in Syria and conduct its business in Libya without great losses. Most importantly, this partnership creates situations in which regional conflicts can be resolved without the involvement of the United States.

For Russia it is more important to exclude the United States from regional conflicts than to allow other regional powers to emerge in them. Russia has an important opportunity to tackle the problems without the Americans. And there is no American war in the current Nagorno-Karabakh war, just like there is no war in the American news.

The same opportunity, to operate in a region without the West, is also important for Turkey, which for this reason is reconciled with Russia’s participation in conflicts that are important to it, it is written. carnegie.ru.

Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Vladimir Putin

This anti-Western platform is more important than the general Christian platform on which hope is placed in Armenia. Yes, Putin and like-minded people talk about Christian values, but their conservatism is social, not religious. It is clear that liberal or pro-Western Christians are further away from him than conservative and anti-Western Muslims or agnostics.

According to A. Baunov, in the current circumstances, the open intercession of Russia could even harm Armenia: in the eyes of the West, the image of all those whom it intercepts, and even more so for whom V. Putin fights, suffers. But so far it is not at war.

Much of the Russian authorities suspect that an important part of the alliance with Armenia is based on the need to defend Nagorno-Karabakh. As a result, and due to its prestige as an ally, Russia will not allow Armenia to lose Nagorno-Karabakh entirely.

The prophet of a possible Russian military intervention are rumors that Syrian militants and other Islamists are fighting for Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia has nothing to punish the Azerbaijani military for, but Islamist militants in the Middle East are a legitimate target. In an effort to defeat them, the intervention in distant Syria was explained. And here is the nearby Caucasus.

The war could end the status quo with token gains and losses, and possibly new draws, which Russia has pushed Armenia to before. Only this time, this will not be achieved in negotiations, but on the battlefield.