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The situation in 2020
Most of the experts surveyed say that in 2020, general practitioners and general practitioners were the most in need. Experts cite the great need for the amount of services provided, the extensive list of functions performed by GPs and nurses, the increased need for factors caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, such as additional workloads, specialized diseases, and self-isolation or retirement at risk.
The experts interviewed also point out the lack of mental health professionals (psychiatrists, medical psychologists). It is particularly noted that the need for the services provided by these specialists is growing due to the universal restriction of quarantine and social ties.
Other experts pointed out by experts who were missing in 2020 and whose deficiency is associated with the management of the COVID-19 pandemic, – infectious disease physicians, paramedics, anesthesiologists-resuscitators.
Since 2017, the service that is most frequently provided continues to be that of a family doctor. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a sharp increase in the number of remote outpatient services: in 2019. 178 thousand of them were provided, and in 2020 – already 1.88 million.
Forecasts for 2030
It is estimated that the need for health professionals will continue to grow over the next decade: 1.8 thousand will be needed. more than is needed in 2020. In addition to the growing need for professionals, service development continues to require the replacement of professionals who are retiring or retiring for other reasons. Therefore, the projected global shortage of healthcare professionals in 2030 will reach 2.8 thousand.
It is noted that there will be a shortage of specialists in the fields that are missing today and in 2030: 3.2 thousand will be missing. general practitioners, 428 family physicians, and 420 internal medicine physicians.
The shortage of health professionals is mainly due to the large number of professionals who are retiring, especially family doctors, general practitioners. Higher-than-usual professional retirement is also associated with COVID-19 pandemic risk for the elderly.
Although we don’t feel the shortage at this time, there will be a shortage of geriatricians and gerontologists in the future. An increase in demand for emergency medical services is also anticipated, which will mean an increasing need for emergency medical personnel. One of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic is the growing need for doctors specializing in infectious diseases in the future.
According to the study, there will be enough or even too many specialists in a few decades: a sufficient supply of oral hygienists, dentists and dental technicians is anticipated. Experts also highlight the potentially large number of radiologists in relation to the likely development of radiology technologies.
The forecasts were made after estimating employee retirement or churn, graduate hiring, and other factors.
