Who will blink in the British-EU negotiations: 250 thousand. Lithuanians are preparing for a different life after January 1

Linas Kojala, political scientist and director of the Center for Eastern European Studies at Delfi Theme, notes that the negotiations lasted until the last moment due to the unwillingness of the negotiators to change, but this must change now.

“The current negotiations are reminiscent of a student who is late in submitting a written assignment and is basically waiting for the last moment to fulfill his commitment. Apparently this is mainly determined by politics. The problems and dilemmas have not changed substantially for many months. But only at the last moment before the deterioration of commercial conditions, the risk that could cause economic damage to both parties if an economic agreement is not reached, can become that necessary incentive to eventually give in to someone ”, evaluates L. Kojala .

He explains that until now the EU and UK negotiators have held their positions and the negotiations have been on hold for a long time.

“We will see if they can move because day X is approaching.” And it will probably take both sides to land. It is just a question to what extent and at what level, because otherwise it is impossible to reach a consensus ”, says L. Kojala.

An agreement is needed from both parties. For the British, Europe is an important trading partner: almost half of British trade takes place with continental Europe, and any disruption would mean additional costs, just the question of whether the damage to the economy will be less or more.

“On the other hand, the EU also needs the UK, although we heard German Chancellor Angela Merkel say that we will not give up on a deal alone – if that deal is bad, we can survive with broken trade relations. But still, the UK It is a great country, a great market, also important for the EU. It is also important for individual sectors “, says L. Kojala.

According to the political scientist, this week is crucial to reach an agreement.

“Either an agreement will be reached in the near future on how the exchange will take place starting in the new year, or even then those divorces will be carried out without any agreement, in which case the complications would be very great. Probably both parties are interested in reaching an agreement, and about 95 percent. The details have already been agreed, but the remaining 5 percent is significant, “says L. Kojala.

Trade and movement opportunities will be restricted

Currently, the main issues in the negotiations between the UK and the EU are the implementation of the EU judicial system policy, the Common Fisheries Policy and the access of Europeans to fishing in UK territorial waters, and the application of state aid as subsidies to companies.

The EU single market is based on four freedoms: goods, services, capital and people who travel freely.

“It is obvious that the issue of free movement of people was one of the cornerstones of the Brexit referendum in general. Because those who supported leaving the EU emphasized the need to limit the influx of arrivals from EU countries that they find employment in the UK and live there in a similar way. Obviously this will change from the new year onwards, “says L. Kojala.

The movement of capital and goods or services must be governed by a future agreement.

“Without it, then trade, including the movement of goods services itself, will move to a World Trade Organization standard, and this will be a much more complex, much more limited trade relationship, with tariffs and tariffs that have not been relevant between the EU and the UK until now., and different requirements of the regulations, which will force the completion of additional documents. Businesses already have to wait in border sections for much longer than before, “says L Kojala.

He would predict the two most realistic scenarios. The first is that a comprehensive trade agreement will still be reached and negotiations on individual issues will continue after the New Year.

“Another scenario is that if an agreement is not reached, everything will collapse. But in that case, both the British and the EU will probably want at least some very narrow thematic deals to ensure that trucks don’t have to spend a lot of time on border sections, or that citizens traveling from the EU to the UK and vice versa do not face additional problems. states L. Kojala.

More than 200 thousand. Lithuanians already have a residence permit in the UK

Alvija Černiauskaitė, who acts as president of the Lithuanian community in the UK, estimates that there are currently more than 200,000 people. Lithuanians who have registered and received the status of temporary or permanent resident. It is still expected that by the end of the year this number will exceed 250 thousand. As long as the UK is a member of the EU, such permits were not necessary and will be mandatory next year.

“For those people who have already established their permanent or non-permanent resident status, there are no worries. There is still time for those who have not, they can still do so. There will probably be more concerns for those who plan to come to the UK afterwards. January 1. – There is uncertainty about what will happen, as it has not yet been agreed. These people are a little more restless, “says A. Černiauskaitė.

He assured that the procedure for obtaining a permit is quite simple, taking only a few minutes online, but it is unlikely to be possible while in Lithuania.

“The application identifies and copies documents. If you use the Internet in Lithuania, you will not be able to do so; it must be a UK Internet or telephone service provider. Lithuanian or Internet connection is not possible. But if people have returned to Lithuania with a connection in English, they can really do it and the procedure will take very little time, ”says A. Černiauskaitė.

Even those who have not lived in the UK up to now, and who have left now, could expect temporary resident status when submitting the requested documents.

According to A. Černiauskaitė, young people and students who plan to study more often apply for the possibility of settling in the UK in the future, but this possibility will be more difficult for them: third-country nationals will be subject to higher prices and more requirements.

I would not see that Brexit would have encouraged Lithuanians to return to Lithuania, the mood in the country is quite good and this issue is generally overshadowed by the global pandemic.

“The Brexit process itself probably didn’t generate that many returns, but I think for those people who were thinking of going back, Brexit was just the last point, which is probably already worth going back to, maybe for some people it has matured. But Brexit itself is probably not meant to seduce or impress. When it comes to talking to our compatriots, they react very calmly, “says a community representative.

Additional requirements to work after January

On Tuesday, the UK introduced new immigration procedures for those wishing to work after January 1. It is stated that those who want a qualified work visa will be able to apply for it next year if the language is fluent in English and the salary is at least £ 2,133 per month (£ 25.6 thousand per year), a job offer will need to be submitted, reports the BBC.

“For skilled labor, this is a fairly normal salary, but it eliminates many ordinary workers, such as working in factories, various factories, where salaries often do not reach that level, depending on the qualification and the number of years that a person has worked. (…) It is quite a significant salary and that income threshold can really create challenges for people, ”says A. Černiauskaitė.

He says it is not so easy to reach an agreement with employers while still in Lithuania, but the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a growing number of job interviews to be carried out remotely, which can facilitate the hiring of qualified professionals. .

“People should really do their homework, look for legal or employment agencies, or companies if they’re qualified. We should not get caught up in modern day slavery and the exploitation of people, which, as you know, is very important in the UK. Do not trust strangers and contacts, “advises A. Černiauskaitė.

Lithuanians often find employment in the construction sector, as factory workers, but in popular and highly skilled specialties: there are doctors, teachers, etc., says A. Černiauskaitė. Still, finding a job right now can be hampered by a pandemic – rising unemployment and companies looking to retain existing workers.

“We will probably have economic consequences for a long time and it will not end with the end of the quarantine and the beginning of next year.” As far as possible, the state makes efforts and tries to maintain the economic level, ”said A. Černiauskaitė in Delfi Topic.

Companies are concerned about bringing goods

Andrius Romanovskis, president of the Lithuanian Business Confederation, assures that there is great uncertainty in the business regarding Brexit.

“For many entrepreneurs, Brexit is Terra incognita (Latin: unknown land), because both politicians and businessmen have a mystery about how this whole ball of thread will unwind. Each time the predictions are different. As a result, especially those entrepreneurs who work in the field of trade, transport, export with the UK, of course, live like a hot seat; they are still waiting for good news, but unfortunately there is no good news, ”says A. Romanovskis.

The agreement on customs procedures and emerging tax rules is of particular relevance for carriers, as is the case in other third countries. Delfi has already written that it can not only change the VAT payment procedure, but also the customs duties if no agreement is reached.

“As a result, of course, products can be delayed and services can become more expensive. Especially the transport of goods to or from Lithuania,” says A. Romanovskis.

The costs of logistics, administration or taxes, respectively, can increase the British prices in Lithuania and increase the prices of Lithuanian products for the British.

“Time is a very important factor in trade, the extension of deadlines may force to reduce volumes or to seek other markets; it will interrupt the logistics chain and have a negative impact on our business,” said A. Romanovskis.

He warned that starting on January 1, queues could be cut at ports and Lithuanian trucks could get stuck in them.

“The French have tried to make an experimental model of trade with the United Kingdom with the introduction of customs duties and inspections in the port of Dover. And within half an hour of the new procedure, a queue of 8 km was formed. It is only in half an hour of such a simulation, or an attempt to model the solid version formed an 8 km tail. This is how you imagine how this could disrupt logistics if it came into effect immediately, both indefinitely and on time, ”warned A. Romanovskis.