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Data analyst Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius believes that extremely strict restrictions should be avoided. The example of foreign countries can also encourage this. However, a relatively small proportion of older people have been vaccinated against COVID-19. Therefore, it is difficult to hope that the new wave of the virus does not mean an increase in the number of hospitalizations, hospital closures and new deaths.
In turn, the infectologist prof. Alvydas Laiškonis stated that seeing the current releases of social life – waking nightlife, groups in the arenas and bars of sports fans, music lovers at concerts – the growth of morbidity is completely natural. He considers that the epidemiological situation is currently “very fragile”.
Both interlocutors agreed that Lithuania has not yet fully used the vaccine stock in the fight against the pandemic. Therefore, he asked that the vaccination not be delayed in the fall and that it be protected now.
Fateful week
V. Zemlys-Balevičius believes that this week can give an answer to the question whether the fourth wave of coronavirus has already started in Lithuania. According to him, the data for a week can only show the “summer wave”, which was also observed last year. However, an increase in the number of cases for two weeks in a row could already indicate new trends.
The probability of the latter variant is also increased by the spread of a more contagious strain of coronavirus in the country. “If it weren’t for the Delta option, another increase is more likely. Therefore, additional information is now needed to clear up doubts. Operational data on the number of Delta strains in Lithuania has not yet been released. We do not have current information from last week.
The signs are such that we can ask ourselves if this is the beginning of a new wave, and we will find the answer in a week ”, assured V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
The absolute numbers of cases in Lithuania are still small, but the specialist suggested paying attention to how they change. There has not been such a significant increase in cases in Lithuania since the height of the second wave of COVID-19. “Now we have 40 percent. Increase in cases. Looking at the whole year, the same growth was in January”, – the data analyst compared the morbidity statistics.
Admittedly, he added that the numbers are small, so it is too early to rush to conclusions. “The data do not contradict the hypothesis that the number of cases will increase significantly, or that we only have a temporary increase. Sometimes we just have to wait,” explained V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
What will the fourth wave be?
The data analyst did not doubt that the consequences of the new pandemic wave and the Delta strain in Lithuania will be sadder than what we are currently seeing in the UK. In our country fewer people have been vaccinated, especially in the elderly group.
“Anyway, we have about 50 percent. People have been vaccinated, so I think the consequences will not be as bad as the third wave of the virus in the spring. In the end, I hope the current situation turns into a added incentive for people not to delay vaccines in the fall, to go to the vaccination center now, ”commented V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
He recalled that in order to properly prepare for the cold season of the year, it is better to get vaccinated today, because full immunity is formed only 4-5 weeks after the first vaccination. Those who do not believe that the infection can seriously harm their own health should think about the consequences of the spread of the virus to society as a whole.
“The worst case scenario would be to announce new measures if hospitals fill up due to increased morbidity,” the data analyst feared.
He noted that some Western countries seem to have already decided that serious measures to restrict economic and social life are no longer necessary when vaccines are available to everyone. V. Zemlys-Balevičius assured me that Lithuania could take a similar position with the increase in new diseases.
“I think there will also be a similar type of variant in Lithuania. The only problem is that countries that speak like this have higher vaccination rates. So if the same actions are taken with us, their cost will be higher,” warned the analyst. of data.
Teacher: “very fragile” situation
At that time, the infectologist prof. Alvydas Laiškonis declared that the predictions of changes in the epidemiological situation are unpleasant. “We cannot provide reliable data on what will happen to morbidity in the future,” said the professor.
He added that the epidemiological situation is still “very fragile”, so he did not dare to provide a longer-term prognosis.
Morbidity rates are also highly dependent on human behavior. The infectologist noted that there were fewer infection control tools left after the quarantine was lifted. According to A. Laiškonis, the increase in morbidity is also stimulated by the abundance of summer events and sports competitions that attract teams.
“How many sporting events and celebrations are taking place at the moment. There is no control. People choose to watch football, thousands have supported the Lithuanian basketball team. And distances are not kept, people also look across of the fingers when wearing masks. It should not surprise us that we are in such a situation, “lamented the teacher.
A.Laiškonis added that people should trust COVID-19 vaccines. It is they who can protect themselves against infections and new waves of the virus.
