What if? Who could replace Lukashenko as president of Belarus?

Of course, the factors are not one. Russia’s position is really important: Now the Kremlin seems to be strongly supporting Minsk, because accusations are emerging from both Western capitals that they allegedly interfere in Belarusian politics, but there are indications that Moscow has another plan.

The alternative scenario of a highly influential Russia in Belarus is probably related to a less predictable factor: the determination of Belarusians to keep protesting.

There is still a lot of uncertainty

The repression carried out during the first days of the OMON demonstrations is no longer repetitive, at least on such a brutal scale. The Lukashenko regime hopes that people who are constantly bullied will be scared, tired and calm.

If not? The Kremlin certainly cannot ignore this, according to several commentators who are actively engaged with activists, in particular the Coordinating Council and one of its leaders, Mary Kalesnikava.

Be that as it may, after 26 years of autocracy, Belarus is simply not a well-organized and large enough democratic political force.

Therefore, Politico points out, it is very difficult to predict who may become the country’s new leader, although M. Kalesnikava, who recently called himself such a “leader,” demonstrates such ambitions. The former chief of staff of Viktor Babaryka, who was ousted from the presidential candidates, and his colleagues have just founded the Juntos (Vmeste) party.

There is a lot of uncertainty and convulsions in Belarusian politics. After all, a year ago, none of the most popular opponents of the Lukashenko regime, not Babaryka, not Valer Capkala, not Siarhei Cichanouski, who was represented in the elections by his wife Sviatlana, were considered serious figures.

If Lukashenko were to finally stand down or accept free and fair elections, the door would open to a host of potential candidates. And at least you can try dressing them in one or the other political outfit.

Face to Russia

Surely, a pro-Russian candidate would accuse the Lukashenko government of moving away from Moscow, even though Russia has been supporting its neighbor for many years, both financially and politically.

Said candidate will also try to remind voters that the government promised to start using the Russian ruble in 2005, but did not keep the promise, although Belarus earns a lot on the Russian market and receives significant financial subsidies.

There will also be a target: probaly candidates, who will be called “Nazis.” Also, it is possible that the ideas that the Belarusian language is no longer the language of the state, as the majority of the population speaks Russian on a daily basis.

Of course, such a candidate will advocate for strengthening ties with Moscow and will present himself as a reliable partner of the Kremlin.

Potential candidates. One of the most realistic is the MP Oleg Gaidukevich, representative of the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus.

Although Gaidukevičius had joined Lukashenko’s re-election party, he later criticized the violence against protesters and opposition activists. He also founded the Belarusian People’s Patriotic Movement, whose main objective is to maintain relations with Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Elvira Mirsamilova is another potential candidate. She is vice president of the Citizens’ Compact movement, which has created a pro-Kremlin pro-Kremlin news portal.

Myrsalimova also does not skimp on criticizing the Minsk official for ruinous relations with Moscow, calling Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin a “famous political leader.”

There is also, of course, Viktor Babaryka, a former pro-Russian bank director who intended to run in the August presidential election, but found himself behind bars instead. There is also Valer Capkala, who has decided to fly from Belarus to Europe via Moscow.

Capkala even wrote an open letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin asking him to stop supporting Lukashenko.

Who would vote for such a candidate? Support would likely depend on what level of applicants for relations with Russia they would say they would like.

42 percent. believes that it is better for Belarus to maintain a strategic partnership with Russia than to aspire to EU membership, with 76% wanting both sides to maintain friendly relations.

According to independent researchers, the pro-Russian in Belarus is now lower than at any other time in the last 20 years. In December of last year, a poll showed that less than 50 percent. Belarus supports support for further integration with Russia and that only 3.7% Belarusians would like the country to become a subject of the Russian Federation.

On the other hand, very few people want “hard” borders with Russia: only 6.8 percent. The most detailed data are as follows: 42 percent. believes that it is better for Belarus to maintain a strategic partnership with Russia than to aspire to EU membership, with 76% wanting both sides to maintain friendly relations.

Face to europe

If the election campaign were clean (after the recent Russian maneuvers, the changes are undoubtedly increasingly unreal), it would certainly involve at least one pro-European candidate who would try to seduce Belarusians with the prospect of a European life in the EU.

In fact, Belarus borders three EU countries and participates in the EU’s Eastern Partnership program. A pro-European candidate would probably speak of an opportunity to shed dependence on Russia and seek closer ties with the Community.

It’s probably about the Association Agreement, trade, visa-free travel. And since the Community is likely to be very cautious, that candidate could assure you that strengthening ties with the EU does not mean walking away from Russia.

Potential candidates. We should probably be talking about politicians who work in the traditional opposition and who have links with the European institutions, say in the European Parliament group.

Several candidates include former Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Sanikav, leader of the Belarusian European Initiative, leader of the For Freedom movement, former presidential candidate Aliaksandras Milinkevich, signatory of the Act of Independence Anatoly Liabedzka.

Another hope was Volha Kavalkova, a member of the Coordination Council who belongs to a new generation of activists and has many contacts in Brussels. But she faces new charges, even though she should have been released from prison on Thursday.

Finally, Pavel Latuška, former Minister of Culture, is mentioned. True, on Wednesday it was announced that he had left for Poland and on Friday he was coming to Lithuania, maybe he was already preparing for the future abroad?

Who would vote for such a candidate? Independent polls show 32 percent. The opinion of Belarusians that their lives would improve if Russia, rather than Russia, were Belarus’s main ally.

The number of those who believe so may increase. Another study from last year showed 89 percent. the Belarusian community is positive or neutral. 51 percent of respondents said they trust the EU.

Face alone to Belarus

Politico calls that candidate “nationalist”, but for a simple reason. Belarus has been dominated by Russians in education, business, and government for many years, so any candidate for a Belarusian identity would immediately be portrayed as an extremist.

Such a candidate would seek to represent Belarusians who feel discriminated against because of their language. It could be both conservative and neoliberal, but it would certainly seek to defend the Belarusian language and Russian only to overthrow it, as the language was only officially announced after the 1995 referendum.

Any candidate in favor of a Belarusian identity would immediately be portrayed as an extremist.

Potential candidates. If the laws were changed, which would not allow people who have lived abroad for more than 10 years, Zianon Pazniak, who has been living in the United States since 1996, would likely run for candidates.

Another potential participant in the political struggle is the charismatic and well-known Christian Democrat Pavel Severinets. It is true that he was arrested before the August elections and now awaits punishment.

Who would vote for such a candidate? A Belarusian-speaking minority would vote for that candidate. It is estimated that about 60 percent. Belarusians consider the Belarusian language to be their mother tongue, although officially there are about 47% of them. – as much as Russian speakers.

It is true that it may be that a patriotic candidate may seem too conservative to voters, for example, to explain that homosexuals should not participate in democratic movements. That, by the way, is the opinion of P. Severineco.

In that case, some of the potential voters for such a candidate would likely choose his pro-European opponent.

A. Lukashenko is different

Finally, given how long Lukashenko has been in power, at least one candidate who promises to uphold the most popular solutions of this regime – the pension and welfare system, active economic regulation – would not be surprised.

In fact, such a candidate would loosen the shackles in other areas, for example allow more freedom of action in politics, more freedom of expression. He would talk about consistent economic reforms, but he would act as if Lukashenko would play with Europe and Russia, at least on foreign policy.

Potential candidates. While they deny it, political ambitions are likely to fall on the removal of Prime Minister Siarchei Rum and the current Foreign Minister Vladzimir Makey.

Also, there is a very slim chance that Lukashenko himself could succumb to pressure and handle himself more restrained than before.

Who would vote for such a candidate? Many Belarusians are worried about money, and a large part of them could be persuaded to vote for a representative of the regime, if only he promised to stabilize the economy and save jobs.

A survey recently showed that more than 60 percent. Belarusians are most concerned about rising prices and inflation, as well as low wages and unemployment. So if a candidate guaranteed stability and at the same time could sound like a more progressive politician, the chances of winning would be really strong.