We already have an example of what an “endemic” COVID-19 will look like: the number of infections no longer matters



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Singapore on Wednesday announced a record eight deaths from COVID-19, which could test the government’s determination to open up as the population has begun to worry about the recent spike in infections.

The number of new cases exceeded 2,200 for the second day in a row, although the government has already lifted some internal restrictions to combat the infection rate, which is at its highest level since the start of the pandemic.

Although officials have said they are determined to reopen a country where four in five people are fully vaccinated, the surge in deaths does not bode well, Bloomberg reports. The public’s attitude to the virus situation is already tense, as the city-state has been applying strict social measures to combat the pathogen for more than a year.

Of the dead reported Wednesday, six were not vaccinated, according to the Health Ministry. They were all seniors between the ages of 72 and 90. A total of 93 people died from the virus in Singapore.

However, there is evidence that high levels of vaccination protect against serious infections. More than 98 percent. Of the 26,088 people diagnosed with COVID-19 in the past 28 days, they had mild or no symptoms.

34 patients are in critical condition and are being cared for in the intensive care unit, a previous record was registered in April (32). Another 197 patients require additional oxygen. Most are people over the age of 60.

“We are committed to gradually opening up our economy and society, but we hope to do so without putting undue pressure on the hospital system,” Singapore Finance Minister Lawrence Wong told Bloomberg on Monday. “We want our healthcare system to remain intact and under control, and we want to avoid unnecessary deaths.”

Singapore is being rescued by the fact that the majority of the population has been vaccinated, according to the American publication Fortune. The city vaccinated more than 80 percent with both doses of the vaccine. The population is one of the largest in the world. China has already vaccinated 73 percent. people, and 65% and 55% in the European Union and the United States, respectively. population, Bloomberg reported.

After a year and a half of trying to beat the infection at all costs, the most influential Singaporean authorities have finally decided to lift the city’s quarantine restrictions and open up to the world in the coming weeks, despite the return of some short-term distance. . restrictions.

According to experts, the growing number of new cases (more than half of the patients vaccinated with both doses of the vaccine) may indicate that COVID-19 has become an endemic disease in this city-state, which means that Another four coronaviruses circulate in the COVID-19 population – relatives, but it no longer alters the normal rhythm of life, because society has already acquired immunity for them.

As long as mortality remains low, Singapore can set an example for other countries, especially those declaring zero tolerance for COVID-19, on how to get out of a pandemic mire.

In May, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong unveiled a government plan on what life would be like with a coronavirus and announced the abandonment of a strategy to “eradicate COVID to zero.”

“Our goal is the safety of the entire population and, at the same time, the understanding that the virus will not go away, that people will continue to get sick,” Lee Hsien Loong said in May, announcing that Singapore will gradually open. first and then accept foreign visitors.

As he said, he did the following: Singapore carefully followed the opening plan. In June and July, the city-state began easing restrictions on catering services, workplaces, and entertainment venues. Most of the companies received permission to resume operations in August.

We already have an example of what a COVID-19 will look like

However, the biggest concern is not how many new cases are being registered, but how fast those numbers are growing, writes Fortune.

In July and August, the number of new cases in Singapore surpassed 100 cases a day, although for almost a year in the city-state that set out to eradicate the virus, the number of cases was almost nil. To curb the virus, he was ordered to stay home, intensive testing and contact tracing were conducted, and foreign visitors were banned. In September, the number of new cases grew like yeast: from 180 cases on September 1 to around 500 in mid-September. This week, the number surpassed 1,500.

Representatives in Singapore said Monday that the city-state would reinstate social distance requirements, such as reducing the number of people sitting at a table in a restaurant or cafe from five to two and recommending that employers allow their employees to work from home. .

Singapore authorities say the measures will last at least a month and aim to prevent the healthcare system from overheating and give the city a chance to improve services to help sick people recover at home.

Currently, thirty patients are being treated in the intensive care unit for COVID-19 in Singapore. There were five of those patients at the beginning of the month.

“The current outbreak will slow down Singapore’s efforts to open up and will likely delay the process itself,” said John P. Ansah, professor of health care at the Duke-NUS School of Medicine in Singapore.

In early September, “vaccinated travel corridors” were opened in Singapore, allowing vaccinated travelers from low-risk areas such as Hong Kong and Germany to enter Singapore without the need for quarantine. Singapore intended to expand the program and eventually fully open its borders, not denying plans for a new outbreak.

“It just came to our notice then.” We plan to keep giving our word to open up our economy and society, to be progressive, but at the same time we always try not to put too much stress on our hospital system, “said Finance Minister Lawrence Wong , in an interview with Bloomberg on Monday.

The growth of new cases can be attributed in part to the delta strain and vaccinated infections. Official data available for Singapore show that 52% of the infection cases detected last month – infected people vaccinated, and the remaining 48%. – not vaccinated. Singapore uses COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, some private clinics for vaccination, and the Chinese-made Sinovac vaccine for the national vaccination campaign.

We already have an example of what a COVID-19 will look like

It was the fact that the city-state managed to vaccinate the majority of the population that protected people from the most painful consequences of the virus. It was reported Sunday that 98 percent. In the past 28 days, infected people have experienced mild COVID-19 symptoms or no reports. Asymptomatic cases in Singapore are detected by testing the close contacts of infected people.

Kenneth Mak, Singapore’s chief of medical services, said in an interview with Singapore’s Straits Times last week that vaccinated Singaporeans are 12 times less likely to die or be hospitalized from coronavirus than unvaccinated people.

In Singapore and other countries, the delta option also protects vaccinated people. These diseases alone are not usually a cause for concern, as vaccines are effective in protecting against serious illness, complications, and death.

“The whole world will soon be talking about COVID-19 as endemic. It certainly won’t be possible to eradicate the virus in the near future, but we already have the means to manage it, including really effective vaccines,” says Ashley St., immunologist at the School of Medicine. Duke-NUS in Singapore John.

Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong, says that even in the face of outbreaks, Singapore remains a model for how countries that no longer detect coronavirus cases, such as New Zealand, Australia and China, can end successfully. a pandemic.

“New cases are likely to increase in the coming weeks as Singapore continues to ease restrictions, but I predict very few serious cases,” he said.

The decision to ‘live with COVID also requires a special attitude, a change of thought’, from focusing solely on numbers to focusing only on difficult cases where hospitalization is needed.

The Singaporean authorities have already decided to publish only statistics on serious cases and deaths and not on the number of new cases. Furthermore, health authorities no longer publish data on whether or not cases are tracked, reducing unnecessary care for mild and asymptomatic cases.

“The number of new cases detected each day is no longer that important, as our strategy now is to learn to live with COVID-19,” said the statement issued by the Singapore authorities on September 9.

Once it has boldly embarked on the path of openness, Singapore and the countries that have followed its example will be able to assess very quickly the damage to society from morbidity and the economic benefits of returning to normal life. In August, the Singaporean government raised its growth forecast for this year from 4 percent to 6 percent. GDP up to 6-7 percent. Changes in the forecast assess the benefits of potential international travel.

What alternatives does Singapore have? A return to the COVID-19 eradication strategy would have very serious economic consequences, ”says Cowling.

Allowing the virus to continue to spread slowly between people “is not necessarily such a bad thing,” CNBC quotes Ooi Eeng Eong of the Duke-NUS School of Medicine’s New Infectious Diseases Program.

We already have an example of what a COVID-19 will look like

“If we change naturally, our immune system will be able to recognize most of the virus in the future,” not just the needle protein, adds the expert, who says it could make people more resistant to future strains.

According to Ooi Eeng Eong, Singapore can reap the benefits of natural displacement that parts of Europe and North America have already experienced, but in reverse order.

“It just came to our knowledge then. I think this is a better option because in such cases people get sick more easily, the risks are lower. Countries that had a higher population last year have paid a higher price for their lives. ”Added the expert.

When asked if the uncontrolled spread of COVID-19 could lead to the emergence of new strains, Ooi Eeng Eong acknowledged that it is very difficult to predict what lies ahead for us. However, he notes that future varieties will have to compete with the extremely fast-spreading delta variety that currently dominates the world.

“It will be very difficult to overcome the delta,” says Ooi Eeng Eong, saying that there have already been attempts to sound the alarms for the mu variety, but that he has not been able to accelerate because the delta variety is too strong.

“Now that I’ve said that, I think it would be wise to prepare for the eventual emergence of a strain stronger than delta, or for delta to be more resistant to vaccine immunity than previously thought,” the expert told CNBC.

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