Warns of a wave of virus in autumn: if this continues, Lithuanians will be overwhelmed only by fear of death

Lithuania is fully prepared if the virus appears in our country. The risk of spreading the virus in Lithuania is not high, but specialists are ready for a realistic action plan.

This is what two members of the Lithuanian government said in January: the Minister of the Interior, Rita Tamašunienė, and the Minister of Health, Aurelijus Veryga. After the waves of the first pandemic had already started in the country and quarantine had been announced, the reassurance that Lithuania was ready, despite obvious deficiencies in the health care system, did not diminish.

“The state is taking all possible measures: if we talk about Lithuania’s preparations, we are probably one of the best prepared countries in Europe,” said LVŽS leader Ramūnas Karbauskis at the 17th Seimas.

A few days later, the first victim of COVID-19 in the country was registered. A few months later, according to data from July 21, a total of 1,949 cases of coronavirus and 80 deaths were recorded in Lithuania. The scandalous investigation into the purchase of reagents for coronavirus research and a clogged e-health system that prevented registration for coronavirus research caused even more anxiety and doubts about preparing for a pandemic.

And although domestic and foreign experts agree that Lithuania has managed to cope with the first waves of the pandemic, the number of cases has started to increase again after the lifting of the strict quarantine measures applied from March to mid-June. of last month. Lithuania is no exception, as sudden spikes of infection in individual hot spots are also reported in other EU countries that have opened their borders.

So, talking about a possible return to restrictions comes not only from the lips of politicians, but also from experts who emphasize: the public is too relaxed, the conditions for the spread of the virus have not disappeared and in the autumn you can expect The Lithuanian health system, which withstood the first strike of the pandemic, has yet to see it.

It behaves as if the virus has disappeared.

Two experts expressed concern about the emerging coronavirus pandemic in the country after the quarantine was lifted on June 15 at the Delfi 11 show: Nerija Kuprevičienė, an epidemiologist at the SAM Department of Health Promotion, and Altaiškydas, a licensed LSMU physician.

Both stated that they still wore protective masks in public, measures that were common and mandatory during quarantine, but less and less visible in public in July.

“For example, yesterday I wore a mask when I went to the store. I wear the mask because I have 45 years of experience as an infectologist. I had to participate in the eradication of empire outbreaks and I know that this is one of the means of protection for me and for others. People imagined that when the quarantine ended, the virus disappeared. I am particularly concerned about asymptomatic forms, where they can become infected without knowing it, “said the interlocutor, who revealed that he had already received a call from a close person, during which it was clear that the person had become an asymptomatic coronavirus.

How many are there in general or if it is already possible to consider acquired immunity, the more collective, according to experts, is it too soon? But there is strong evidence that the public is resistant to the new coronavirus, which has killed more than 610,000 people worldwide. people, no.

“Lithuania has dealt with the first wave quite successfully, although some measures were harsh and inconvenient, but if we talk about the second wave, we should know that the virus spreads when there are susceptible people who can get sick and when the route can be taken of transmission”.

We have no collective immunity to available data, and we can only protect ourselves from it by preventing it from spreading. If we can maintain a state where the virus cannot spread until there is a vaccine or a collective immunity, we can expect to have a situation like the one we have now.

And while most people are susceptible, there is always the possibility of an epidemic occurring, “said N. Kuprevičien dijo, noting that the recommendation to maintain a safe distance of two meters, frequent hand washing and coughing and sneezing They have not disappeared, it is true, she and Prof. A. Laiškonis recognized the obvious fact: fewer and fewer people maintain their social distance, navigating in public spaces as if the threat had disappeared.

“Observing the epidemiological situation in Europe: in Spain, France, Croatia, Bulgaria and other places, it is not the second wave, but the illusion of the first wave. The same is true in Lithuania: the first wave is not yet over, and the data of the last weeks worries me.

We still have to wait two or three weeks to get the data, but I’m concerned that people have relaxed, “said A. Laiškonis, citing the state and other holidays during which crowds of people sailed without keeping a safe distance and without taking any precautionary measures.

Only the fear of death will infiltrate the mind

But even now, the data shows that trends in the spread of the coronavirus in the past month are not encouraging. For example, Professor Mindaugas Stankūnas from the LSMU School of Public Health provided specific alarming figures.

“Since the Mindauginiai weekend, this indicator has been growing steadily (although not very fast). And as of July 15. We can already see a much faster jump up.

Since that date, we have detected a total of 72 new cases in Lithuania (red columns), while only 75 new cases have been identified between the end of the quarantine and the Hegelmann Transport outbreak. T.y. we detected as many new cases in five days as in the whole month (06.15 – 07.14) since the end of the quarantine, ”he wrote.

According to A. Laiškonis, the statistics for the coming weeks may show even more, whether more cases are imported or local. This will only be possible by tracing the chain of infections.

“So far, we are managing to trace the chains of infection. As long as we can trace the chain of how one case relates to another, we can handle the situation. The vast majority of cases can now be tracked, and links are sought at the institution, in families and in individual cases under investigation. But if the situation becomes such that we cannot trace the chain, it would threaten that the morbidity would start to increase very rapidly, “said N. Kuprevičienė. And that would already threaten the uncontrollability of the situation .

The expert acknowledged that the creators of various conspiracy theories can contribute to such a threatening situation, that they are convinced that there is no virus present or that it is not dangerous, and that masks, isolation, quarantine and other means are part of a global conspiracy caused by Bill Gates or the 5G connection. . Malicious people who avoid protecting themselves and others can only help the second wave. But not necessarily just conspiracy theorists.

“I remember the SARS pandemic of 2003, when I had to participate in its liquidation, the MERS epidemic of 2009: everything ended happily, the epidemics were liquidated. But when it comes to the second wave of COVID-19, it will be more complicated because the people have less faith in medicine.

It is difficult to convince people to return to quarantine restrictions, so that we can get more public resistance, “said A. Laiškonis. According to him, the conscience of the people in Lithuania could be strengthened with just one thing, if there will be many deaths during the second wave.

“In such cases, people are affected by fear: if a person is afraid of becoming infected, if a neighbor or relative dies, they are protected. The same example as tick-borne encephalitis: everyone in Lithuania knows this disease, it is It is possible to get vaccinated, but you will not be vaccinated until then, far from home you will not get sick. And if someone gets sick, the whole family will be vaccinated. What he did to you? Not money, but fear, “said A. Laiškonis.

“We should think about people’s conscience: it will probably work very well if it happens that people see the real risk, the severity of the infection, then it is compelling to keep your distance.” I would like to believe that we had to learn those lessons, even though quarantine is difficult to survive, each one should start with ourselves, because the rules are not difficult, they are easy to follow and if we do not follow the rules, we can have different others ”, added N. Kuprevičienė.

Experts suggest not to travel, the minister does not listen

So far, according to the epidemiologist, the situation in Lithuania is not bad: morbidity rates are lower than critical (25 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days).

He hastened to add that the morbidity rates and overall coronavirus exposure situation are similar in other Baltic countries, making it safe to go to Latvia for the time being, where Health Minister A. Veryga, who chose a break from 5 weeks, he decided to take a vacation. However, holidays can theoretically take you, because the situation, as practice has shown, can change in an instant.

“For example, in Croatia, where the morbidity rate was lower two weeks ago, and last week the list of affected areas also included mandatory isolation for people who came from there.” These are the rules of the game at the moment. The situation is changing rapidly and we do not know how it will change if we travel, “said the interlocutor, adding that it is still recommended to refrain from traveling abroad.

“I would also generally advise: let’s stay in Lithuania during this year’s holidays: we don’t know what the epidemiological situation will be, let’s remember how they had to catch the Lithuanians, how much effort was made to return them to their homeland from the epidemic country, when it was interrupted air communication. “

A double whammy awaits in the fall?

However, taboo interlocutors noted that during the first wave of the pandemic, the health care medical system gained invaluable experience, acquired more tests, equipment, better to know what to do than in March-April, when even doctors lacked equipment of protection and rushed to take care of business. organizations and volunteers.

“I won’t say the exact number, but enough of those tests are now being done, it seems like about 1,500. Also, the peak needs to be assessed when the season of acute respiratory tract viral infection ended and there were more symptomatic people, their vigilance and fear were greater and the initiative to investigate was greater, “N. Kuprevičienė said of the evidence.

Testing at the start of the coronavirus pandemic was one of the most obvious problems, when information on the actual number of infections in the country was lacking, initially only a few dozen tests a day, then hundreds, and Lithuania boasted of having a record number in Europe with 8,000. daily tests

However, now that such PCR tests, while available, are sufficient, they would suffice for several months during mass testing. Stocks, according to the interlocutor, are constantly replenished, and rapid tests, which cost 6 million. Lithuania bought around 500 thousand euros. It will not be for diagnostic purposes but for tests of collective immunity. However, according to A. Laiškonis and N. Kuprevičienė, it is necessary to learn lessons from the pandemic that has not yet ended.

“Communicable diseases have been, are and will be, we need to be prepared for them. We have learned how to deal with an unexpected pandemic, what tools, how difficult it is to work with them, the great experience gained, we will be better prepared when the second wave arrives.” , said A. Laiškonis, recalling that it is necessary to renew the training of epidemiologists kartosis And so far there are all the assumptions and the same for the second wave of coronavirus.

“There are preconditions and all the conditions for that, there are susceptible people, the cause is many other unknowns: we cannot imagine how the coronavirus can spread during the season of other infections,” N. Kuprevičienė warned.

“Now we can say that there is no flu in the summer and we can treat each case as a coronavirus, and in the fall it will be a big problem to separate the two streams: both the hospitalized and the coronavirus will have many tests, a big problem for doctors, a difficult period. ” seconded by A. Laiškonis.