Warning after new clashes in Donbass: armed formations of “republics” prepare for combat operations

What is the connection with the spring escalation of hostilities in Donbass and is it necessary to wait for a great war?

The Ukrainian media began talking about the actual ceasefire in February. Military experts in Kiev then claimed that although active fighting had ceased, the military units of the independence-declaring “republics” actively used percussion pilots along the line of contact. In addition, snipers continued to fire from the front: a source at the BBC’s headquarters in Ukraine said there were “11 to 12 professional snipers from Russian groups” in Donbass on a regular basis. Moscow has repeatedly denied that Russian troops are involved in the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

“There are no more peaceful processes: sniper couples are running, shootings are taking place, the war continues,” said Arsen Avakov, one of Ukraine’s most influential politicians, in early February.

Overall, between the end of February and the beginning of March, it was clear that the deterioration was long-lasting. As of 2020. In July, when a ceasefire was announced, 19 Ukrainians were killed and dozens injured on the Donbass front. In addition, 15 members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been killed there since the beginning of this year.

There are no reliable data on the losses of unrecognized republics. On February 20, after one of the incidents, representatives of the republics reported a victim and several injuries near Horlivka, but information appeared on social media that significantly more people were killed. Former Horlivka commander Igor Bezler (now living in Crimea) says 20 people died then.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, often referring to the ceasefire of July last year as one of his undoubted achievements towards peace in Donbass, has refrained from making radical assessments. However, this week he was forced to admit: “the number of provocations at the front has increased.”

In fact, on February 19. the escalation of the conflict in Donbass became one of the topics of the meeting of the Security Council of Ukraine. The news that resonated the most during the meeting was the sanctions imposed by Kiev on the most pro-Russian politician in the country, close to Vladimir Putin’s ally, Viktor Medvedchuk.

Journalists paid less attention to the fact that the Security Council, according to its secretary Alexei Danilov, has decided to go back to “five scenarios of how the situation in Donbas can arise.” Little is known about these scenarios: a secret document describing them was approved by the Security Council in December 2019, on the eve of the meeting of the “Normandy Quartet” in Paris, to give Zelensky the greatest possible room for maneuver during his first personal conversations. with Putin. Then some experts said that one of the five possible scenarios could be a full-scale resumption of combat action in Donbass.

March 8 The Ukrainian-led Eastern Defense Group, based in Lysyčansk, has openly stated that according to its monitoring, the armed formations of the Donbass “republics” are preparing for combat operations.

An outbreak of violence in eastern Ukraine

The media of the “republics” of Donbass, which declared independence, report almost daily on the settlements on the front fired by government forces. To protect the settlements from what they call “Ukrainian terror”, units of the “People’s Militia” of the Donetsk People’s Republic on March 3. he received permission to launch a “preventive fire” against the positions of the Ukrainian army. This information provoked a nervous reaction from Kiev, but it did not end with an official ceasefire.

The representatives of the Lugansk People’s Republic reported on the resumption of battles with the Ukrainian soldiers.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday called for a summit of the so-called Normandy Quartet and hinted at the possibility of a direct meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end new clashes with Moscow-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.

The recent escalation of the situation in the so-called Donbass region jeopardizes last year’s ceasefire, which fueled hopes of resolving the conflict that erupted in 2014 following Maidan’s pro-Western revolution in Kiev and the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Moscow.

“It just came to our attention then. It should happen,” Zelensky said.

The Normandy Quartet is made up of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France. This forum was created to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine; its most recent summit took place in 2019, immediately after the election of V. Zelensky.

Zelensky stressed that if the Fourth Normandy meeting failed, he would be willing to meet with the leaders of France, Germany and Russia separately.

A bilateral meeting between Zelensky and Putin would be the first since 2019, when the Ukrainian leader was elected on the promise of ending the war in eastern Ukraine.

Critics say the latest outbreak of violence in eastern Ukraine may be the Kremlin’s response to sanctions imposed by Ukraine last month on influential pro-Russian lawmaker Viktor Medvedchuk, a Putin ally.

“It just came to our attention then. We understand that there has been an increase in armed provocations on the front line,” Zelensky told reporters on Tuesday.

Since mid-February, as fighting intensified in eastern Ukraine, eight members of the Ukrainian forces have been killed.

Ukraine and its allies in the West accuse Russia of sending troops and weapons to the separatists, although Moscow officially denies this.

Last week, the Kremlin blamed Ukrainian forces for the escalation of violence, saying it was “deeply concerned about rising tensions” in Donbass.

Ukraine questioned Kremlin ally in “extradition” investigation

Ukraine said on Tuesday that a pro-Russian MP, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Viktor Medvedchuk, was questioned during a pre-trial investigation into possible extradition from the homeland.

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the Defense and National Security Council of Ukraine, said Medvedchuk and his wife, Oksana Marchenko, were being investigated for “terrorist financing.” O. Danilov did not provide further details.

The Ukrainian Security Service confirmed that the deputy was questioned. A police source told the AFP news agency that “the survey is about extradition as well as other issues.”

The Ukrainian government has been fighting Russian-backed separatists in eastern Donetsk and Lugansk since 2014. The conflict began with Moscow’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula earlier that year after Maidan’s pro-European revolution in Kiev.

Kiev accuses Moscow of sending troops and weapons to eastern Ukraine to incite a conflict that has already claimed some 13,000 lives. lives.

In February 2019, Kiev prosecutors launched a pre-trial investigation against Medvedchuk for possible extradition from his homeland for his requests for autonomy for eastern regions controlled by pro-Russian separatists.

Last month Ukraine imposed sanctions on Medvedchuk for “terrorist financing.” Sanctions were imposed in the interests of the MP’s business in Russia.

Medvedchuk’s pro-Russian alliance, the “Platform of Opposition – for Life,” said the sanctions were an “act of political repression.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also banned three pro-Russian TV channels linked to Medvedchuk. A presidential spokeswoman called the three televisions a “Kremlin propaganda tool” and said they were receiving funding from Russia.

Since mid-February, Kiev has lost eight soldiers in clashes with separatists. This is the first aggravation of the situation in the so-called Donbass region since last July, when a ceasefire was agreed.

Critics say the new clashes in the Donbass could be the Kremlin’s response to Ukraine’s sanctions against Medvedchuk.

“It just came to our attention then. We understand that there has been an increase in armed provocations on the front line,” Zelensky told reporters on Tuesday.