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Faced with emerging strains of coronavirus, rich countries have already felt the tangible benefits of effective vaccines. Although the United States, United Kingdom and the European Union have already allocated around 24 million euros to citizens. doses of vaccines, more than half of the world’s vaccines, many countries are just beginning their vaccination campaigns.
The immunity gap threatens both rich and poor countries. Allowing the coronavirus to develop and form new mutations could have serious economic and public health consequences and exacerbate the situation, especially as the number of deaths from COVID-19 in the world now exceeds two million, according to the latest figures.
Growth forecast
“We cannot leave a part of the world without access to vaccines, because it will eventually come back to us like a boomerang,” said Charlie Weller, director of the Wellcome Health Research Foundation. “It is a risk for everyone in the world.”
The parties hope that effective immunization will save lives and revitalize businesses. Will the 4 percent of the World Bank pay off? This year’s prognosis depends on how widely the vaccines are distributed. However, the growing number of COVID cases and the delay in vaccination may limit development to just 1.6 percent.
High-income countries have insured 85 percent. Vaccines from Pfizer Inc. and all of Moderna, according to London-based research firm Airfinity Ltd. Much of the world will depend on the cheaper and easier-to-distribute British drug maker AstraZeneca Plc, as well as other manufacturers such as Sinovac Biotech Ltd. of China.
Of the 42 states, on January 8. 36 of those that have started vaccination against COVID-19 are high-income countries, the rest belong to middle-income countries, says Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the World Health Organization (WHO). More and more countries are dealing with their own supply transactions, while joining international cooperation programs like Covax.
TA Ghebreyesus this week condemned the “I am” attitude of the rich countries, as well as the vaccine manufacturer, which is competing for the approval of the vaccine in the rich countries instead of sending their data to the WHO to allow vaccines are used all over the world.
Opening the WHO Executive Board meeting in Geneva, he said that the promise of ensuring equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines around the world was now in grave danger.
According to the head of the WHO, 39 million have already been used. vaccine doses in at least 49 higher income countries. And “only 25 doses have been injected in one of the lowest-income countries,” he said, highlighting: “Not 25 million, not 25 thousand, only 25.”
“I have to be clear: the world is on the verge of a catastrophic moral collapse, and the cost of that collapse will be paid in lives and livelihoods in the world’s poorest countries,” he said.
While some countries assured them equal opportunity, they prioritized their own contracts with producers, raised prices and tried to step out of line, TA Ghebreyesus said.
According to him, in 2020, 44 such contracts were concluded and, after the New Year, at least 12 more were signed.
“The situation is compounded by the fact that most manufacturers prefer regulatory approval in rich countries, where profits are higher, rather than providing complete dossiers to the WHO,” said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
“This ‘me first’ principle not only puts the world’s poorest and most vulnerable at risk, it is also doomed to failure,” he said. “Ultimately, these actions will only prolong the pandemic, prolong our pain, the limitations you need to manage, and the human and economic suffering.”
Future mutations
There is no delay, as the pandemic is now in its second year. New strains emerging in the UK, South Africa and Brazil are known to spread faster than other versions of the virus. It wasn’t until December that “a new risk factor opened up to the world,” said Rajev Venkayya, president of Takeda Pharmaceutical Co.’s vaccine business. The main lever for rapid vaccine delivery is to reduce the number of deaths and illnesses, says Venkayya, who worked in the George W. Bush administration to develop an influenza pandemic plan in the United States and led the delivery of vaccines to the Gates Support Fund.
“Now we understand the importance of controlling the spread,” he said. “It aims not only to protect the most vulnerable groups, but also to reduce the evolutionary risks associated with the virus.”
While there is no evidence that current vaccines against these strains are ineffective, future mutations may be less responsive, Ch. Weller of the Wellcome Foundation.
The drug companies say they could improve their vaccines and adapt them to the new strains in almost a few weeks, if necessary. The likelihood that such adjustments will be needed is increasing, Venkayya says.
“The longer the virus is allowed to spread in different parts of the world where we don’t have the vaccine,” said Anna Marriott, health policy advisor for the poverty-fighting group Oxfam, “the greater the risk of new ones appearing. strains. more aggressive, more contagious or easier to transmit “.”
COVID vaccines have been tested for their ability to prevent symptoms, not transmission. However, their clinical trials show how effective they can be against proliferation.
Efficiency differences
Vaccination with Pfizer-BioNTech SE and Moderna vaccines, which reached approximately 95% The level of efficacy has raised serious questions: will everyone have access to such a high level of protection?
“The gap is not just about access to vaccines,” said Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow in global health at the nonprofit Council on Foreign Relations. It’s also about access to effective vaccines. “
One of the vaccines for which high- and middle-income countries have high expectations, the vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford, has raised concerns in Australia that it may not be effective enough in building herd immunity. However, local health authorities say the vaccine is comparable to Pfizer and Moderna in protecting people from serious diseases.
The vaccine developed by UK partners, delivered in January, has an average efficacy rate of 70%. According to regulators, based on the limited data available, this figure rises to 80% with a longer period between vaccinations. Extending this period from one month to three months allows more people to be protected more quickly; Additionally, the data shows that antibody levels are increasing, said an AstraZenecca spokesperson.
“A streamlined procedure that allows many more people to get vaccinated early, while ensuring a reliable supply chain, means that we can have a real impact on the pandemic,” he wrote in an email.
There are four very different levels of protection for Sinovac, ranging from around 50%. more than 90 percent.
“Despite the differences in efficacy levels, all their data suggest that the vaccine can provide protection, especially against severe and moderate disease states,” says Sinovac.
While the real picture has yet to emerge, the approved vaccines are believed to provide similar protection against serious illness and death, says Takka, president of the Venkayya vaccine business. According to him, their main differences may be related to side effects, duration of protection and effects on propagation, an even more important factor in view of the new emerging varieties.
Even the least effective vaccines can have a significant effect. US regulators have set 50 percent. threshold when evaluating the efficacy of a candidate vaccine. But achieving herd immunity would require a higher percentage of people willing to get vaccinated, Huang said.
The distribution of less effective vaccines to emerging markets could have serious economic consequences, as well as “deepen the differences in the effects of the pandemic between countries,” wrote Justin-Damien Guenette, senior economist at the World Bank (WB).
Many countries rely on the Covax global collaboration platform, which aims to deliver vaccines impartially to every corner of the planet. And yet not all low- and middle-income countries are waiting for a “lifeline.” Countries like South Africa and Malaysia are trying to negotiate supply agreements directly with manufacturers, and some regions are also preparing to receive shipments of Pfizer vaccines.
“Losing patience”
“There seem to be signs that countries are losing patience,” said Huang of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Covax secured nearly $ 2 billion. access to vaccine doses, deliveries from the first quarter and a goal was set to vaccinate up to one fifth of the country’s population by the end of the year. This is well below the goals set by many countries to vaccinate by two-thirds or more. Some countries may not receive vaccines by 2024, scientists estimate
Efforts are mobilizing rapidly. India, a country with more than 1.3 billion. population, launched a mass vaccination promotion program on Saturday, which is expected to reach remote rural areas as well.
Vaccine advocates urge wealthy countries to share, while pressuring companies to increase production capacity. Although it is too early to draw conclusions, the notable trends are concerning, Venkayya said.
“It will be possible to talk about success when everyone receives the vaccines,” he said. “Unfortunately, our efforts to achieve this goal have still failed.”
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