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Driven by double concern over falling oil prices and the coronavirus epidemic, and ultimately seeking the victorious end to his military adventures in Syria, Putin hopes that Assad will show more flexibility in negotiating a political agreement with the Syrian opposition. to end the conflict of almost a decade. people familiar with the Kremlin’s deliberations on the matter.
Assad’s reluctance to relinquish any power in exchange for greater international recognition and possibly billions of dollars in reconstruction this month has sparked rare public outbreaks against the Syrian president in the Russian media associated with Putin.
“The Kremlin needs to get rid of the headache Syria is causing it,” said Alexander Shumilin, a former Russian diplomat who heads the state-funded Europe-Middle East Center in Moscow. “There is a problem with a person, Assad, and his environment.”
Putin’s resentment and Assad’s stubbornness underscore Russia’s dilemma, as both sides know there is no alternative to reach an agreement for the Syrian leader. As Putin used his successful 2015 Intervention in Syria to restore Russia’s Soviet-era influence to the Middle East, Assad maneuvered between Moscow and another major military supporter, Iran, to maintain power.
Assad has also used Russia’s military and diplomatic power to thwart Turkey’s efforts to expand its holdings in the rebel-occupied Syrian territories in northern Syria, as he hopes to regain control of the country with Putin’s help.
Vladimir Putin, Bashar al-Assad
© Sipa / Scanpix
Open criticism
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denies that Putin is unhappy with Assad’s refusal to engage with the Syrian opposition in negotiations for a political settlement.
Russia has unsuccessfully lobbied Assad for several years to accept at least some symbolic political concessions for the United Nations to approve his planned re-election in 2021. Sincere criticism of the ally so far marks a sudden shift in position.
The media linked to Yevgeny Prigozhin, under the nickname of Putin’s boss, also known as the Kremlin restoration contracts, published an online article attacking Assad as a corrupt policy. The article also cites a poll in which only 32% support it and lists some members of the Syrian regime and opposition who could potentially take power.
The article on the Federal News Agency website quickly disappeared. A few days later, the Russian International Affairs Council, a group of foreign policy experts established by the Kremlin, issued a comment criticizing the Damascus government for lacking a “flexible and forward-looking approach” to end the conflict. .
“If Assad refuses to adopt a new constitution, the Syrian regime is putting itself at great risk,” Alexander Axenionok, a former Russian diplomat and vice chairman of the expert group, said in a telephone conversation.
Vladimir Putin, Bashar al Assad
Clear signal
Both publications sent a clear signal to the Syrian leadership, a person close to the Kremlin said.
Another person close to the Russian leader said that Putin considered Assad to be a stubborn person, and used the media associated with Prigozhin to convey this opinion. However, he cannot turn his back on the Syrian president because he has no other promising ally in Syria, the person and the government official said.
There was no official reaction from Syria, and Syrian newspapers, all state-controlled, did not mention criticism of Russia. Syrian Ambassador to Moscow Riad Haddad will send an email did not respond to the request for comment sent by mail.
The United Nations-led talks in Geneva to reshape the Syrian constitution to introduce at least such political competition finally started late last year, and were almost paralyzed almost immediately when the government side “deliberately sabotaged” the negotiations. Aksenionok said. with the Valdai Discussion Club, with the support of Putin.
UN Special Envoy to Syria Geir Pederson to the Security Council on December 20. They reported that the second round did not move because Assad’s opponents wanted to start discussions on constitutional issues, but Syrian government officials refused to do so.
Moscow’s warnings reflect the frustration of the Russian business community for not penetrating the Syrian economy, said a diplomat who was watching Syria. Russia is also aware of the difficult situation in the country, since Assad has been unable to meet basic needs due to the coronavirus pandemic and corruption networks, at the risk of provoking insurgency in some parts of the country in the future, he noted. the diplomat.
Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin, Sergei Shoigu
“Hardcover” Assad
“Assad has always acted as a tough man under Russian pressure, knowing that Syria is too big to land in Russia,” said Joost Hiltermann, program director for the Middle East and North Africa program of the International Crisis Group based in Brussels. According to him, what “looks like an unprecedented government-approved Russian media campaign against Assad” may reflect frustration in Moscow at a time when Syria has become a lower priority.
Russia, which has naval forces and an air base in Syria and has sent the military police to patrol the old rebel-controlled areas and major road sections, has some influence, but would be too risky in trying to oust Assad, says Irina Zviagelskaya, an expert in the Middle East of the state Institute for World Economy and International Relations.
Russia’s efforts to subdue the Syrian leader are complicated not only by Iran, which supports Assad with money, oil and troops to ensure that Syria remains a weapons supply corridor to Hezbollah’s militant ally of Tehran in Lebanon, but also by the United Arab Emirates.
The United Arab Emirates, interested in countering the influence of Iran and Turkey in Syria, began to express their support for Assad after treating him as a pariah for several years, along with Saudi Arabia, the strongest country in the region. 2018 In the late 19th century, the UAE reopened its embassy in Damascus and developed trade relations.
“Many Arab countries have finally concluded that Assad will not go anywhere,” said Zviagelskaya. “They realized that they had to agree with him in some way.”
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