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In its annual emissions report, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) states that a 7 percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2020 will have a “negligible impact” on global warming, as fuels fossils are not quickly and widely abandoned.
The Emissions Gap report analyzes the discrepancies between the actions required under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and the countries’ current emission reduction plans.
The document says that a “green recovery” linked to a pandemic, with more and more countries declaring a commitment to climate neutrality, could cut emissions by 25 percent by 2030.
In that case, the world would be closer to the goal set by the Treaty of Paris of warming the climate by no more than two degrees Celsius by the end of this century.
The global climate is currently slightly more than 1 ° C warmer than before the Industrial Revolution, but our planet is already affected by more severe and frequent droughts, natural fires and extreme storms. The impact of the latter is aggravated by rising ocean levels.
“It just came to our attention then. During this time, we have seen a 7% reduction in emissions,” UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen told AFP.
“But we also know – to close the world and 1.9 billion. Not going to school is not the answer,” he emphasized.
According to Andersen, a report released Wednesday shows that the ecological recovery brought on by the pandemic “could significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help curb climate change.”
UNEP announced last year that emissions must be cut by 7.6% annually by 2030 to meet the more ambitious goal of 1.5-degree warming under the Paris Agreement.
The situation in 2020 will be more or less in line with these ambitions, but at the cost of an unprecedented decline in industry, travel and production.
Experts fear that by 2021, carbon emissions will almost inevitably pick up. Last week, the UN said that countries plan to increase fossil fuel production by two percent each year this decade.
For the climate not to warm by more than 1.5 ° C by the end of the century, oil, gas and coal production must fall by 6% each year.
An estimate released Wednesday says that in 2019, which scientists hope marked a peak in annual atmospheric carbon emissions, a greenhouse gas equivalent to 59.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide was released into the atmosphere.
Compared to the situation in 2018, this amount was 2.6 percent. higher, and most of it was caused by forest fires, writes UNEP.
Pollution inequalities
The UN has indicated that emissions will fall 7% this year due to a reduction in travel due to the pandemic and a slowdown in industry and electricity generation. lower than last year.
However, this would only mean a warming 0.01 ° C lower by 2050.
UNEP predicts that an ecological recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will result in emissions of 44 gigatons by 2030, instead of the previous forecast. In that case, 66 percent would remain. the probability that humanity will achieve no more than two degrees of warming.
However, a major shift toward renewable energy is needed, direct support for climate-neutral technologies and infrastructure, reductions in fossil fuel subsidies, no new coal-fired power plants and large-scale reforestation are needed, according to the report.
However, only a quarter of the G20 countries are committed to financing measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The report also reveals a huge inequality in the distribution of pollution: 1%. the richest countries emit twice as much greenhouse gas as 50%. the poorest.
UNEP says the group needs to reduce its carbon emissions by a factor of 30 to meet its Paris Climate Treaty commitments.
“The point is energy efficiency, how we choose food and what we throw away,” Andersen said. – One percent [turtingiausių šalių] it must do more, due to its large size. “
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