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The European Union is falling behind with plans to vaccinate tens of millions of people with Pfizer Inc., Moderna Inc. and AstraZeneca Plc when they reach the finish line. This means that the bloc will remain vulnerable to a pandemic for longer, and the UK will be able to proudly show that it is doing well on its own after Brexit.
According to an analysis by London-based research firm Airfinity Ltd., the EU will not have enough vaccine doses to vaccinate two-thirds of its population until 2021. in September. It will reach this level more than four months behind the US and two months behind the UK.
The calculations are based on the number of vaccine doses that governments have provided per capita, the production capacity in each region, and the effectiveness of the expected dose.
Several western countries are planning to start vaccination soon; vaccine safety will be closely monitored. No matter how soon the vaccination begins, the key is to give 60 to 70 percent immunity. of the entire population, as this will allow societies to open safely without fear of massive disease and broken health systems.
Governments across the industrialized world are already criticized for failed economic recovery efforts, as the pandemic has hospitalized more than 90,000 patients in the United States alone. While there is growing concern that richer nations will outpace low- and middle-income regions, the prospect that some parts of the rich world will recover more slowly than others threatens to create additional international friction.
France, Germany and other European countries have managed to curb the number of new coronavirus cases, but this has required new quarantines and restrictions that have hurt companies that are already reeling.
“Suppose the United States goes ahead and vaccinates a large part of the population faster than Europe – you can imagine the pressure on European politicians,” said Simon Evenett, professor of international trade and economic development at the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland. . “This could become a source of tension between countries and increase more widely.”
The European Commission, which has secured nearly 2 billion doses of the Covid vaccine on behalf of its members through six supply agreements, has declined to comment directly on whether it will be able to immunize its populations as quickly as the United States and others. nations.
“The key is to ensure the rapid distribution of vaccines that are considered safe and effective.” the. The EU executive wrote in a letter dated January 1, 2006 adding that it was working with member states to ensure they were ready for distribution as soon as the vaccines were available.
Although the US and UK populations are likely to start getting vaccinated before the end of this year, Airfinity predicts that the first doses of vaccines in the EU won’t be available until January. Health officials in France said they hope to start vaccinating people in late December or early January, and that all EU countries will receive the doses at the same time.
Meanwhile, German Health Minister Jens Spahn said that special immunization centers should be ready by the middle of this month and that high-risk groups are expected to start vaccinating in January.
Britain’s drug regulator approved a vaccine developed by Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech SE on Wednesday, bypassing the United States and the EU.
The vaccine is expected to receive a decision from the US Food and Drug Administration in mid-December, and approval from the European Medicines Agency is expected by the end of the year. Moderna and AstraZeneca are likely to bite her.
Supply factor
Supply is a key factor in determining such prospects. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the EU has achieved 1.9 dose equivalents per person among the top three cyclists, compared to 4.2 doses in the US and 2.2 doses in the UK.
The EU has also signed more contracts with drug makers, such as Johnson & Johnson, whose vaccines are expected to be available later.
In addition, the United States is a leader in production. This is important because “countries are unlikely to export large doses until their own vaccination targets are met,” said Rasmus Bech Hansen, Airfinity CEO.
Several other factors can affect the rate of distribution. It’s unclear how countries will get around logistical barriers and how willingly their citizens will roll up their sleeves. Meanwhile, some European countries are taking independent steps to immunize their citizens.
Germany, for example, is in direct negotiations with the country’s pharmacists to obtain more doses than would be provided under the general EU plan, says Health Minister J. Spahn. The country has secured access to more than 300 million doses, including a vaccine developed by BioNTech and Pfizer, authorities said.
The United States is determined to outperform other nations in terms of spending and invest in several different vaccines, says Klaus Stohr, a former World Health Organization official who helped mobilize governments and drug manufacturers in the event of a pandemic. .
The country’s experience in developing immunizations with the help of the Advanced Biomedical Research and Development Service was also significant, said Stohr, who also worked for the pharmaceutical company Novartis AG.
Any scenario in which Europe lags behind Britain and the United States could put European officials in the hottest seat. The bloc has already called for more efforts to combat the crisis, and the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has announced a proposal to create a European version of BARDA.
The US agency “has shown that it can do it,” Stohr said. “It just came to our attention then. Europe has something to learn,” he said.
However, Stohr said he believed the EU had been successful in obtaining vaccines. Despite an ambitious global initiative to distribute doses fairly, what is happening in developing countries is concerning, not that Europe is lagging behind the United States, he said.
“My biggest concern is that people in Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America will not get the vaccine at all,” he stressed.
Most of the people in the world “will not have a vaccine by 2021. by the end of 2022, and it is unlikely that it will reach them until 2022.”
During the pandemic, people were outraged by the uneven availability of personal protective equipment and other supplies. When it comes to vaccines, the gap will be even bigger, said S. Evenett, a professor at the University of Switzerland.
According to him, if some of the richest countries can vaccinate their populations much faster next year than others, “the mad race for personal protection measures will seem like a picnic.”
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