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There are, of course, all kinds of options, but one of them is the withdrawal of all American troops before the US presidential elections in November. Trump, Trump will seek reelection in them, and he will almost certainly fight Democrat Joe Biden.
According to The New York Times, generals who are aware of Trump’s thinking about his election campaign are also aware of such presidential ambitions.
It is true that the military wants to offer the president, and they support him, a slower withdrawal of forces. One that would be more in line with the Taliban deal and would not bury the chances that the Afghan civilian administration would survive after the Americans left home.
The process moves from one place to another.
The Pentagon is definitely trying to avoid a situation that the world has already seen in December 2018 and October 2019. Trump then ordered the full withdrawal of US troops from Syria without warning the army in advance.
Scanpix / AP photo / US troops in Syria
Such statements were followed by diplomatic chaos and outbreaks of violence, prompting Trump to resign. There are fewer Americans in Syria, but there still are.
According to a document negotiated and signed in Doha in February, the war in Afghanistan, which has been going on for almost two decades, would end with the withdrawal of troops from the United States in 14 months.
And the high-ranking US military is convinced that a swift withdrawal from Afghanistan would immediately condemn the peace deal with the Taliban. What does this say?
According to a document negotiated and signed in Doha in February, the war in Afghanistan, which has been going on for almost two decades, would end with the withdrawal of troops from the United States in 14 months. Of course, there is room for Afghans themselves to negotiate.
The Taliban agreed to cut any ties to al-Qaeda and other international terror groups, and the Americans have already begun withdrawing troops from Afghanistan in return.
AFP / Scanpix Photo / US troops in Afghanistan
It is true, dosed. In the first 135 days after the agreement was signed, enough US troops should leave Afghanistan to leave 8.6 thousand. In addition, Washington agreed to close five military bases. If both parties adhere to the agreement, all US forces should leave the country in the spring of 2021.
Suppose the prisoner exchange (the Afghan government releases the Taliban and the Taliban releases the government troops) has already started.
The Taliban views the release of prisoners as a key condition for the Ashraf Ghani government in Kabul to join the peace talks.
Reuters / Scanpix photo / Ashraf Ghani
Joint operations suspended
But Trump wants to be able to proudly say to Americans before the election: I’ve brought absolutely every soldier home.
Reviewers strongly doubt that foreign policy is an important part of the electoral campaign; after all, everyone is talking and forging about the coronavirus pandemic and its consequences. But Pentagon strategists are concerned about Trump’s potentially rash and reckless decision.
As already mentioned, there is progress in the negotiations between the Taliban and Afghanistan, but it is very fragile. Americans are more interested in fighting the coronavirus, and a bloody Taliban attack continues in Afghanistan.
AFP / Scanpix photo / Afghans welcome the peace agreement between the United States and the Taliban
The New York Times reports, according to five sources, that the military will try to instill in Trump a more cautious plan to keep US troops in Afghanistan until May next year.
The president is expected to want to protect the peace agreement, as this will also be a boast during the election campaign.
Additionally, Defense Department officials explain to the White House that they cannot guarantee that Afghanistan will never again become a haven for terrorists and a place where the latter is free to plan attacks against the United States. Al Qaeda planned the September 11, 2001 attacks on Afghanistan.
The president is expected to want to protect the peace agreement, as this will also be a boast during the election campaign.
There are currently less than 12,000 in Afghanistan. American soldiers are dwindling, and the United States will soon have to rely on Special Forces troops or the joint troops of the United States and Afghanistan.
Scanpix photo / No shortage of civilian casualties in Afghanistan this year
Incidentally, the Pentagon and the White House fear that the new coronavirus, which came from neighboring Iran, is spreading in Afghanistan without any barriers.
At least half of the members of the Afghan security forces are estimated to be infected. And that means that any joint exercise or military operations between the United States and Afghanistan have already become impossible, even though the Taliban can still be attacked from the air.
History is ruthless
Be that as it may, in a few months something will change unless Trump. The fact is that most of the American troops will be withdrawn from Afghanistan, a country where the Taliban have been fighting for almost 20 years and where these fighters have not been defeated.
And there is certainly no guarantee that the leadership of the Taliban, who are essentially ardent Islamists, will want to live in peace with a Western-backed civilian government that has fought them for many years. Therefore, negotiations and promises to behave with honor can only be a facade that hides plans to return to public terror.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Taliban fighters released from prison
As The New York Times observes, the Taliban have never deviated from their strict ideology. He never distanced himself from past decisions to protect terrorists, including Osama bin Laden, from repression against women.
“Finally, the rebels are still vehemently opposed to many of the changes in Afghanistan in the past two decades,” the newspaper said.
And Amir Khan Mutaqi, head of the administration of Taliban leader Haibatullah Akhundzada, seems to deliberately emphasize: “We want to reach an agreement because we want an inclusive peace.
But we cannot sit back when the prisons are full of our people, when the government system is the same western system. Don’t say that the Taliban should go home. It is illogical that everything remains the same.
The current government lives on foreign money, on foreign weapons. “
Scanpix / AP photo / Taliban attack Afghan security forces on a daily basis
The story is ruthless. The last time Afghanistan left Afghanistan as the occupying power was in 1989, and soon the rebels overthrew the remnants of the government and began fighting each other. Finally, the strongest was the Taliban.
Taliban soldiers are no longer hiding so as not to shoot only US troops, as one said, “to clean their behinds and leave.” But Afghan security forces are under attack every day.
“Until the Islamist system is established, our jihad will continue,” a Taliban insurgent promised.
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