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According to the Department of Statistics, in the first half of this year, compared to the same period last year, Belarus imports increased by as much as 58.3 percent. and amounted to almost 560 million. euros.
In terms of import volumes, Belarus was second only to the US, which exported 2.4 times more to Lithuania last year than in January-June last year.
It is true that the goods transported from Belarus to Lithuania represent a relatively small proportion, only 3.3%, or as much as the goods imported, for example, from France.
At that time, exports to Belarus fell just over a tenth in the first half of this year. The goods left Lithuania for Belarus for approximately 465 million. euros.
According to SEB bankas economist Tadas Povailableuskas, the results of the last six months clearly show that at least Lithuanian companies have not reduced their dependence on Belarusian products.
On the other hand, according to T. Povilauskas, the EU introduced sectoral sanctions in Belarus only at the end of June, in addition, they were applied only to those imported goods, whose participation in our import structure is not large.
These are petroleum products, certain fertilizers, goods for the production of tobacco products. “Therefore, it is not surprising that the results of the first half of the year did not find the impact of the sanctions on the commercial activity of Lithuania and Belarus, because they do not have to show,” said the economist.
Furthermore, according to T. Povilauskas, the annual variation may have been distorted by the fact that at the beginning of last year, due to the pandemic, economic activity and trade between countries had fallen drastically.
Another reason why Belarus imports look impressive this year is raw material prices. In the first half of last year they fell sharply, but this year, on the contrary, they increased sharply, which also had a positive impact on the jump in the value of imports.
T. Povilauskas also suspects that the fact that Lithuanian companies, in anticipation of possible sanctions, rushed to buy more products from Belarus before their supply was interrupted may have contributed to the significant increase in imports.
This year too, even 74 percent. – Increase in imports of ferrous metals. According to the economist, this was due to a sharp rise in their prices and a huge demand.
T. Povilauskas also believes that 5 percent. The increase in exports of goods of Lithuanian origin to Belarus this year is not bad either, especially considering the dramatic relations between our countries.
But the economist is convinced that all the figures listed are a thing of the past: Lithuanian-Belarusian relations are heating up even more, direct and indirect pressure on Aliaksandr Lukashenko is reported to be increasing. Therefore, T. Povilauskas has no doubt that the import results for the second half of the year will be much worse.
There is no doubt that the loop of the Lukashenko regime, which is sinking more and more, will also begin to strangle Lithuanian businesses. In particular, it may be affected by the US decision to impose sanctions on Belaruskalij, one of the world’s largest producers of potash fertilizers.
Once the sanctions take effect in December, the Lithuanian railways and the Klaipeda port will lose about a third of all cargo. Therefore, the director of Lietuvos Geležinkeliai Mantas Bartuška estimates that the company could require approximately 60 million LTL. otherwise, 30% would be spent on state aid. increase rail rates.
It is estimated that due to the loss of potash fertilizers and other cargoes from Belarus, the Lithuanian logistics chain may lose more than 100 million. entry.
In total, the EU accounts for around 10%. Belarusian fertilizers are transported through Lithuania, the other part travels to China, India, Brazil and other countries. There is no doubt that its price is due to penalties and will increase significantly.
Although Lukashenko, criticized by Lithuanian politicians last year, threatened to divert Belarusian cargo to ports in other countries, his flows have barely slowed and, in some cases, even increased.
According to statistics from the Department of Statistics, a little more than 17 million tonnes of goods were transported to Lithuania last year from Belarus by rail. tons of cargo or 0.1 percent. less than the previous year.
Last year, the flow of goods transported by rail in the opposite direction, from Lithuania to Belarus, was recorded and it was impressive. According to the department, it increased 2.5 times.
Last year, up to 28.7 percent of cargo was imported into Lithuania by road from Belarus. more than 2019 It is true that 36.5 percent was exported from Lithuania to the neighboring country. load less.
