Threat from the North: Deep freeze of relations between Ukraine and Belarus

The Belarusian embassy in Ukraine is trying to “hunt down” all political emigrants from Belarus and oppress the Ukrainians who sympathize with them. Sometimes insignificant pickets occur, sometimes the protests are extremely creative. Here, a month ago, the Belarusian opposition activist from Kiev, Peter Markelov, tried to throw several bags of manure through the fence surrounding the Belarusian embassy, ​​but was stopped by the police.

The latest action took place in the Ukrainian capital on June 20, when dozens of people gathered on Maidan to commemorate the victim of the late Belarusian activist Vitold Ashurka.

Since the farce-like presidential elections in Belarus last year, the Belarusian issue has steadily escalated in the Ukrainian information space. Politicians on television screens and ordinary people with a cup of coffee or a glass of beer, discuss whether a Maidan is possible in Belarus and fear that as Aliaxandr Lukashenko’s regime becomes more dependent on Russia, its border north could become a possible front line. .

If, at the level of civil society, Ukraine’s solidarity with the people of Belarus is obvious, then the political situation is quite ambiguous. Defenders of the pro-Russian policy make no secret of their support for Lukashenko and his actions. But their support is not limited to that. Yevgeny Shevchenko, a member of the President’s People’s Servant political party, went to Minsk in April this year, where he met with Lukashenko himself, and after the arrest of Raman Pratasevic, he wrote a note on social media acknowledging his unconditional support for the Belarusian. . regime.

Of course, such a jump did not go unnoticed, and he was expelled from the Bolshevik group of the Servant of the People faction. As for Kiev’s official position, its reaction to Lukashenko’s policy is based on the following logic: look closely at how harsh the Western reaction will be and then follow suit.

Relations between Ukraine and Belarus are also not without skeletons in the closet. In October 2019, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Lukashenko in Zhytomyr, Ukraine, and the atmosphere at that meeting was quite gratifying.

Renowned Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon recorded a very positive interview with Lukashenko on the eve of the August 2020 elections. In any case, in the Ukrainian community, the relationship with the Belarusian dictatorship is quite loyal. It was only after the brutal crackdown on peaceful protests that began after Lukashenko’s last supposed victory that the popularity of the Belarusian ruling regime began to decline in Ukraine: 54% now oppose it. Ukrainians and confidence: 36 percent.

When the whole world was devastated by the story of the Belarusian arbitrariness of the landing of a Ryanair plane in Minsk, Ukrainian social networks instantly recall the story of Pavlo Gribo, a Ukrainian citizen kidnapped by Belarusian special services in Belarus in 2017 and taken to the Russian Federation on terrorism charges.

Grib spent almost two years in a Russian prison (replaced in September 2019), but the Kiev official did not raise the issue of the kidnapping of a Ukrainian citizen on the territory of a country that until recently had been considered a friend, neither before nor before. the current president.

Despite some internal policies, Ukraine has been accepting political emigrants from Belarus for many years: from artists and programmers to volunteers fighting on the Ukrainian side in Donbass. Belarusian official television is slowly reaching Ukraine, which, according to propaganda media, has protected “political vagrants”.

The only area where a healthy pragmatism could be seen in Ukraine-Belarus relations was the economy. In recent years, bilateral cooperation has been quite slow: Belarus accounts for only 3%. The share of Ukraine’s exports and imports from Belarus does not exceed 5%. Trade relations began to deteriorate dramatically after the presidential elections in Belarus last August: since last fall, the countries have been putting pressure on each other in the form of fiscal obstacles, and since the end of May, the sanctions policy of both countries. it has hardened.

It all started with flight restrictions. It is worth noting that Minsk has long been a kind of hub for flights from Kiev to Moscow and vice versa. There has been no direct air connection between Ukraine and Russia since 2015, and Belarus was an “airlift” that no longer existed on May 26.

If we take a closer look at the structure of trade relations between Ukraine and Belarus, we will notice a very serious discrepancy: Ukraine’s exports to Belarus are estimated at only 113 million. Belarus imports amount to $ 2.9 billion. Dollars. These figures illustrate very well that the Ukrainian market is really very important for Belarus. This can also be seen in business structures: Belarus buys (in descending order) confectionery, furniture, agricultural machinery in Ukraine and sells mainly fuel and fertilizers (52% of total exports).

The countries have not applied an absolute embargo, but the areas most affected by the restrictions are already clear: for Ukraine, it will be the agricultural sector and producers of building materials, and for Belarus, it will be mainly oil refining. The Minsk official states that he has no intention of cutting off the fuel supply to Ukraine, just to reduce its volume. The official version of the decision to sell less gasoline to Ukraine: repair work at the Mozyr refinery, which began on June 1.

The Ukrainian retail market reacted to all this by raising the price of fuel at service stations. However, it is not worth talking about some serious consequences or the oil crisis, because there is no reason to do so.

First, the Ukrainian company Ukrtatnafta, which controls the Kremenchug refinery, announced its willingness to increase production volumes to compensate for the shortage of Belarusian petroleum products. The second thing: the third fuel supplier to Ukraine after Russia and Belarus is Lithuania (the share of Lithuanians in the import of petroleum products today is up to 12%).

Lithuania could potentially increase the supply of gasoline to Ukraine, even if only the very characteristics of Belarusian logistics do not hinder it. And the third thing is that it can be any country in the European Union, only here does the question of price arise. It is quite possible that Belarus will not give up fuel from Ukraine (finding an alternative market is not easy), but in that case the question arises about the meaning of full cooperation (given the sanctions and the toxic regime of Mr. Lukashenko).

There is also a little known hook in this story. Recently, the Radio Svoboda office in Ukraine published a study that revealed interesting information about the Belarusian oligarch Mikalaj Varabey, Viktor Medveduch’s business partner. The latter, as is already known, is subject to sanctions in Ukraine and is accused of treason. And here Varabey’s interests suffered little.

The Belarusian oligarchs are basically little known to the people, especially those who are rich and influential and as long as they are favored by the dictator.

Varabey has solved the problem of supplying diesel fuel to Ukraine and, more recently, bitumen.

Ukraine is currently running a presidential program, Major Construction, which includes the repair and construction of roads and infrastructure. It was this program that dramatically increased the demand for bitumen in the country. Neftebitumnyj zavod de Varabey is one of the suppliers with almost 10% imports of bitumen.

Despite the cooperation with V. Medvechuk and the opaque bitumen supply schemes exposed by journalists, neither Varabey nor other Belarusian importers suffered. A very simple explanation for this can be found: it is fundamental for V. Zelensky not to underestimate the scale of the “Great Construction”, after all, August 24 is the anniversary, the thirtieth anniversary of Independence, so there is many events waiting. to be cut off when opening new roads.

So if Ukraine sanctions and punishes Belarusian bitumen, it certainly won’t happen before September.