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Last winter was the warmest in Eastern Europe with blizzards that can be counted on the fingers of one hand. According to the AccuWeather portal, for example, the average air temperature in Moscow from December to February exceeded the usual average by up to 8 degrees.
According to the portal, the winter of 2020-2021 is not expected to be the same as last year. The temperature will be closer than normal, but it will likely be higher than normal. This is true in the region, which includes countries such as Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, and parts of Ukraine.
AccuWeather says, however, that the last and this winter will be marked by a surprising detail: cold weather will periodically enter the region this winter. We are likely to see snow and blizzards with it.
In Lithuania – changing weather
In Lithuania, this winter is not expected to be very cold, at least you cannot see such trends. This was confirmed by Donatas Valiukas, a climatologist at the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service in Delfi, saying that the anomaly is forecast to be higher than the average rate.
“In recent years, the winters have been changeable and the cold has not lasted long. If we also have a traditional winter in Lithuania this year, we will also have a changeable climate, when the snow does not last long. It certainly won’t be like it was a few decades ago, when the snow that fell in early December lingered until spring. Humid conditions are more and more frequent now and we will not avoid them this year ”, said D. Valiukas.
It was seconded by dr. Gintautas Stankūnavičius: “According to the forecast made in November, there is a higher probability (around 70-80%) that the winter will continue to be warmer than normal. The signal is twofold: there will be a favorable circulation and climate change will contribute. We forget what those cold winters are like, maybe in 2013 the cold period of winter was longer. There were brief colds in February-March 2016. We are already used to such a winter in Western Europe. “
We won’t beat heat records
Last winter in Lithuania was the warmest record: the average temperature reached 2.6 degrees, when it should normally be -2.8 degrees.
“The winter with a positive temperature and the absence of snow is a great anomaly. Warm winters in general are becoming more common. If we look at climate change, 7 decades ago there were 7 cold and 3 warm 10 out of 10 winters, now we have the opposite trend: 7 warm and 3 cold.
Colds can occur in individual years, individual months, weeks, or days, but the trend for warm winters will continue. Winter is already the warmest of the four seasons. It gets shorter and hotter, but that doesn’t mean the snow disappears or the colder months don’t happen at all. Looking ahead to the next 10 years, it is more likely that there will be more winters with rain, but the scenario that they will be completely without snow should be rejected ”, D. Valiukas shared his ideas.
We can also have Christmas in white
In recent years, people are usually very interested in what Christmas will be like in our country, with cold and snow or positive temperatures and possible rain.
The climatologist of the Lithuanian Hydrometeorological Service claims that it is too early to talk about Christmas, and the information that has appeared from the unofficial meteorological services of Lithuania and other countries, private companies is usually a fortune-telling from coffee grounds.
According to him, the maximum period for which a forecast can be made is 10 days: “We still don’t know what Christmas will be like, but in general December is expected to be 1 degree warmer than the usual rate (the usual rate for December is -1.9 degrees).
A small minus sign appears. It is true that the fluctuations of the individual days do not show this. Usually the beginning of December is warmer and at the end we return to normal. December is usually volatile, especially in recent years with freezing temperatures. And the coldest weather comes after Christmas. “
Vilnius Associate Professor of the Department of Hydrology and Climatology of Vilnius University, dr. G. Stankūnavičius.
“Now a 5 cm layer of snow has fallen, but this weekend a warm air mass from the south comes and everything will melt. It should be removed again next week. It is unclear if the snow will melt everywhere. There are three weeks left, the processes may change, ”he said.
The warmest year in the world?
The reliability of forward-looking forecasts in the post-New Year period is declining dramatically, but some general trends can be relied upon over a large area.
“If we take the northern hemisphere or our region, a little larger than Europe, the temperature is expected to be higher than normal throughout the winter. However, sometimes small anomalies occur in small areas and are distributed. We can also get everything in Lithuania, because it is a small territory ”, said D. Valiukas.
According to him, fans of winter sports should not be disappointed, because the warming of one or two degrees, where the temperature reaches -8 or -5, the snow will not melt: “Traditional winter resorts will have snow as usual. . Perhaps that period of snow will be shorter, but it will be higher in the mountains or in northern Scandinavia. “
For everyone, this year, according to the climatologist, could become a record.
“This year will be the warmest or one of the warmest in the world. There is little to be sure: one month. The last 5 years have been the warmest, so you don’t have to look very far for these anomalies,” said D. Valiukas.
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