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Presidential adviser Simonas Krėpšta said this week will be very important to assess the real figures.
“We can say that the quarantine is working, the growth rate has slowed down significantly. But we see that the daily numbers are not decreasing yet. This week will be very important, it will show whether we will be able to reduce the curve of the pandemic. At the end of the week, we will see a real situation, because three weeks have passed since the announcement of the quarantine, ”said S. Krėpšta.
The President’s Advisor welcomed the government’s speeches on the possibility of extending the quarantine.
“We just realized that the quarantine had to continue. We see that a two-week quarantine takes effect, without which the situation would be much worse. We also see that three weeks will be too short a time to reduce the level of daily infections so make them easy to track and reduce the very heavy burden on medical institutions, ”explained adviser to President G. Nausėda.
The situation is still difficult
Professor Mindaugas Stankūnas stated that the coronavirus situation in Lithuania remains difficult. According to him, although there were signs of optimism, the situation is deteriorating again.
“The situation of the coronavirus in Lithuania is still difficult, our previous forecasts turned out to be quite accurate. But it is unfortunate that the scenario is more pessimistic than optimistic, we previously predicted that the peak will be reached on November 20-27, then the situation should start. to improve. In fact, in the middle of last week, we saw some signs of optimism. If we look at the effective ratio R, it had fallen to 1.009 on November 16. It got so close to our desired limit that there would be less than one. (… ) It was then the lowest value of this indicator since September 8. But on November 17 it began to grow, today it reaches 1,163, which is quite a lot ”, explained the professor.
At the same time, the researcher noted that the volume of hospital services also increased during this period. Recent data suggests that 1,443 patients are currently being treated at the hospital.
Oxygen masks are required for 747 patients. That is 53 percent. all patients hospitalized for coronavirus.
“If we compare it with the data from the beginning of November, then between 40 and 45% oxygen masks were needed. Patients. And if we go back a little more, that is, to the spring period, only one in four patients needed oxygen masks. (…) This would mean that we are hospitalizing patients with increasingly complex diseases, and patients from lighter clinics are being treated at home, ”said M. Stankūnas.
The professor said the number of cases is expected to grow through December 11.
“Recent epidemiological data have forced us to review our forecasts. It should be said here that there is not much optimism. We do not rule out the possibility that, from a short-term perspective, we will see a decrease in new cases, but in terms of the curve of morbidity should not change direction until early December. We believe that the growth in cases should continue until December 11, “said M. Stankūnas.
The researcher also shared what are the possible scenarios during the great parties of the year.
“Today we present forecasts to the president, we try to calculate what the situation could be during Christmas, the New Year. We believe that during Christmas, if the quarantine works, people will follow the recommendations, so we can have much fewer cases, we forecast that then there could be about 20 thousand active cases, ”said Professor M. Stankūnas at the press conference.
According to scientists, more than 1,500 of our compatriots will celebrate the parties in hospital wards.
Stankoon: Pandemics are insurmountable, neither scientists nor experts
The researcher said he had no doubt that all members of the Council would be happy if these scenarios did not materialize and infection rates plummeted rapidly.
“I mean you are the ones who can override our forecasts. And I ask you to prove this team of experts wrong. It is up to you how that curve keeps moving. The Dalai Lama once said:” If you think you are too small to change rather, try to fall asleep in a room where a mosquito flies. “And you are much bigger than a mosquito and can do incomparably more.
An online commenter said that we now have January 13 every day. I don’t know if we can compare those events to this situation, but we can really focus on how. Now, by observing the events of those days, we draw courage, confidence and pride. Let this pandemic challenge be the source of all these things for our children, ”said M. Stankūnas.
The researcher appealed to the public to make an effort.
“I understand that we have asked you a lot and you have already done a lot, but we have to ask again. That said, I feel like I have borrowed a lot of money from you and have come to ask you for a little more. But we really need that “little bit” so that the current situation begins to change for the better, so that we can see more light around us.
Looking at the epidemiological situation, it looks like a ball is jumping in an arc. And it seems that it takes so little to fall into the basket. If during a basketball game we can only watch with clenched fists, here you can do a lot. And you don’t need to become an epidemiologist, infectious disease doctor or health minister, ”said M. Stankūnas.
According to him, anyone can do that.
“You can do that ‘little bit’ if you ask your ‘stubborn’ dad, mom or someone else close to you to put on a mask properly, and not because Veryga, Stankūnas or someone else demands it, and because you want to see it healthy and enjoy it for a long time weather.
You can go and donate blood. It is always necessary; this will help the person who is currently ill. Thanks to those who do.
After a hard day, you can muster the rest of your strength remotely and offer a half-hour consultation to your fifth graders to explain the basic rules of stress again. I know that many teachers do that. On behalf of all parents, I thank you for that.
You won’t have much trouble sharing your online store, perhaps a stranger, just opened on your Facebook profile. And even if you buy a cloth for a few euros, do not hesitate, he will feel happy at that moment.
Pandemics are not overcome by politicians or experts … Ordinary people overcome them. So I invite you too, if you haven’t done anything yet, start doing it. If you have already, thank you and please try to do more. If you are already doing a lot, it is the greatest thanks, try to inspire others with your example ”, said M. Stankūnas.
Advocates for the continuation of the quarantine
According to M. Stankūnas, the quarantine must continue.
“I think we all have to accept the idea that the quarantine will be extended. (…) In my opinion, for the most part, this is really true, it needs to be expanded. But when something needs to be changed, we will really try to refine the proposals in this council of experts (…) convened by the president, we will be able to give our opinion on what should be done, what should be changed ”, said M. Stankūnas.
The professor said closing non-essential stores could be considered.
“It may be worth considering, the movement of people to supermarkets has decreased. (…) Not as much as in the spring, but in decline. What surprises us is the increase in people visiting supermarkets,” he said.
Instead of blaming, praise people for what they do.
The psychologist who participates in the working group, dr. According to Paul Skruibis, it would encourage people to be more focused if “we clearly define the goals we are striving for and how we can all see if we are close to that goal.”
“We strongly suggest specifying what kind of behavior we expect from people, what to do and what not to do,” said P. Skruibis.
At the same time, the psychologist emphasized that reproaches do not provoke a positive reaction, but more resentment. According to him, people in today’s situation follow the rules more than they don’t.
“Maybe we will emphasize this, appreciate that people adhere to it,” said P. Skruibis.
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