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Although summer in the Northern Hemisphere is barely in the middle, extreme events have already been registered and, sadly, they are increasing. The circumstances that lead to these phenomena, such as heat, ocean warming and changes in climatic conditions, will not go away anytime soon, which means that the worst can be expected in the future.
Forecasters knew a few weeks ago that this summer would be particularly ruthless, but record levels and disasters remain shocking.
The heat wave in Oregon has claimed the lives of 60 people and the death toll in British Columbia exceeds 300.
“Currently, the trend is only gaining momentum,” said Judah Cohen, head of the risk assessment team at Verisk’s Division of Environmental and Atmospheric Research.
The United States has become the world leader in economic losses caused by climate-related disasters: Between 1998 and 2017, losses amounted to $ 944.8 billion. dollars (796.3 billion euros). China ranked second with 492.2 billion. $ 414.8 billion), followed by Japan with $ 376.3 billion. dollars (317.2 billion). The source of these data is the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
According to the US National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), the effects of extreme weather events averaged $ 45.4 billion annually in the United States between 1980 and 2021. dollars (38.3 billion euros). Last year saw the survival of some two dozen disasters that killed 262 people and caused a total of 96.4 billion in damage. dollars (81.2 billion euros).
Unfortunately, these disasters are happening with increasing frequency.
The cause of these phenomena is increasingly evident: climate change. The tornado that devastated the Czech Republic very recently, for example, was caused by the increase in potential energy in the atmosphere after the cold and wet spring of June, when record heat hit the atmosphere.
Researchers from Austria’s Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics cited higher temperatures as a result of climate change. The raging cyclone claimed the lives of five people.
While most of the world is suffering the effects of dramatically changing weather conditions, the blows in the United States are clearly the worst. The body of warm water surrounded by cold water in the North Pacific creates a high-pressure stretch that diverts California’s currents and winter storms and causes droughts in the Southwest, said Jennifer Francis, chief expert at the Woodwell Climate Research Center.
The stretch is likely to be exacerbated by arctic ice melting from the weather. The whole mechanism intensified this year when the La Niña phenomenon was recorded in the Pacific, associated with a drier climate in California and the West.
“As the ice melts in this area, the ocean absorbs more heat in the summer, which is released into the atmosphere in the fall and winter,” Francis explained. “The additional heat intensifies the stretch, so the chances of droughts only increase.”
As the US Drought Monitoring Map shows, the unusually dry weather has covered more than 98 percent. eleven western US states, and the drought has leveled off at more than 93 percent. the territories of those States. The threat of wildfires was announced last month as a result of the drought, said meteorologist Gina Palma of the US Department of Agriculture.
According to the National Interagency Fire Center, a greater-than-usual threat is projected in July in an area that stretches from the Pacific Northwest to the Rocky Mountains in the east and covers the coastal and Sierra Nevada stretches of California.
In August, the danger zone is expected to expand to include Montana and extend into North and South Dakota. It is noteworthy that this situation is expected only one year after the record fires that burned entire regions of California and Colorado.
From the beginning of the year to June 29, more than 30,000 cases were reported across the United States. forest fires, accounting for up to 25% of all fires since 2020. The total area burned is more than 1.4 million. acres (566.5 thousand hectares) – the same as last year, but less than average.
Hurricane season has already started in the Atlantic
At the opposite end of the country, from the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of Maine, people will face another hurricane season of greater intensity. The same applies to the Caribbean, Central America, and Canada.
While the record of 30 storms recorded in 2020 will not be reached this year, the average for the fourteenth hurricane season is likely to be exceeded. Five have already been produced in the Atlantic.
“This season has gotten off to a really bad start,” said Phil Klotzbach, the chief compiler of hurricane forecasts at the University of Colorado. “Although early activity is not generally considered an indicator of the upcoming season, the formation of cyclones in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic in August will provide reasons for a very intense season.”
A few days ago, Tropical Cyclone Elsa swept over a thousand kilometers east of the Windward Islands and obstructed Dominica, Grenada and Martinique, which belong to Ph. Klotzbach’s area of concern.
The specialist also pointed out that the air temperature in the Atlantic area is above average and corresponds to the temperature recorded during the peak season.
Many regions of the Caribbean, Central America, and the United States have so far not recovered from previous hurricane seasons. In 2020, Louisiana, Honduras and Nicaragua were hit by successive hurricanes, while Hurricanes Jota and Eta claimed hundreds of lives in Central America.
According to estimates by the United Nations and governments, the damage caused by the devastation in Honduras, Guatemala and Nicaragua should be estimated at 3 billion euros. dollars (2,500 million euros).
“Climate change is making life difficult for these vulnerable communities,” Tom Cotter of the Virginia-based humanitarian organization Project HOPE, which leads the disaster preparedness and response team, said in an interview in May.
Global warming is affecting the whole world
According to forecasts from Columbia University’s International Institute for Climate and Public Research, higher-than-usual air temperatures are expected in August in many parts of the eastern and western United States, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East. .
Still, the effects of global warming will be strongest in Greenland and Russia’s Arctic coast, a trend long observed by scientists.
According to Cohen, the problem is the heat on the Arctic coast. Studies show a huge temperature difference between the Arctic Ocean, which retains some of the ice, and between the very warm currents from the coast that penetrate to the north.
Because it is hot in the northernmost parts, the contrast between the temperature there and at the equator is lower than it used to be, which affects the climate.
According to J. Cohen, heat domes form – high-pressure air poles that bring extreme heat. Recently, the heat dome toasted Portland a record for heat in the area for three consecutive days.
In Canada, in the province of British Columbia, Liton reported a recent Canadian national heat record of 49.6 degrees Celsius; there has been no such heat even in Dallas, Texas.
“It’s hard to understand,” said Daniel Swain, a climatologist at the University of California, Los Angeles. – I mean both as a meteorologist and as a climatologist. It’s incredible that there is so much heat in those places for so many days in a row. “
It’s not just Canada and the US that have been struggling for the past few weeks. Moscow reports that there has not been such a hot June since the reign of Tsar Nicholas II, with Taiwan complaining of the worst drought of all time, which has plunged food prices and threatened the business of chip makers.
The United Arab Emirates rises from 52 degrees Celsius, barely surpassed by Death Valley in California (the lowest point on the American continent), which had previously registered 53.3 degrees Celsius. The Caspian coast is also roasting and new heat records are expected to be set here.
Various forms of heat damage
Kimberly McMahon, chief of the US National Weather Service’s weather forecasting division, says heat is a silent killer because it is not “visible like a tornado or hurricane.”
Even if it doesn’t kill, it makes life very difficult for him. During extreme heat, electrical wires cannot transmit the normal amount of electricity. Airplanes can fly with less weight due to the lower density of the air, melting road surfaces, as has happened recently in Oregon and Washington.
So far, there is no study on the origins of the heat dome on the Pacific Northwest coast, but the most likely main cause is climate change.
“Without man-made climate change, such record heat would be virtually impossible in the western United States in June,” said Nicosia Christidis, a climatologist with the US Weather Service. “The natural probability of such heat is once every tens of thousands of years.”
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