There is an unexpected turn in the cognitive trajectory of the coronavirus: Even virologists are surprised



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The last year and a half has been a true path of discovery for epidemiologists. However, there has recently been an unexpected turn in this coronavirus route to the Seychelles, an archipelago in the Indian Ocean with a population of less than 100,000. population. The country has unexpectedly recently become the most vaccinated country on Earth: 64% have already been vaccinated with two doses. population.

However, to the surprise of virologists and disappointment of the local government, new cases of infection are increasing in the country. Local authorities hoped that the rapid vaccination program would open up an economy dependent on tourism. Unfortunately, as of May 13. up to one third of active infections (approximately 900 cases) are found in the fully vaccinated population.

Opponents of the vaccine say it proves they are right. And international public health experts are trying to answer many questions. Did one or both of the vaccines used in Seychelles not work? Perhaps the so-called public immunity has not been achieved? Perhaps the country is fighting a more contagious strain of the virus that escapes the protection created by certain vaccines?

“So what’s going on? Asks Raina MacIntyre, professor of global biosafety at the University of New South Wales in Sydney.” It may be that the threshold of public immunity has not yet been reached if the South African variety is rampant there. ” .

The answers to the questions discussed by R. MacIntyre and other experts may have an impact on the future course of the pandemic. First, this small country has become a “testing ground” for two of the most widely used coronavirus vaccines in the world. In Seychelles, 57 percent. The population was vaccinated with Sinopharm and 43% were vaccinated with the Covishield vaccine developed by AstraZeneca.

What is happening in the Seychelles is very different from the situation in Israel, the second most vaccinated country in the world that has a significant reduction in coronavirus cases. This contrast can provide important information on the efficacy of different coronavirus vaccines.
In Israel, the vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech is the one that has been used the most.

It is worth noting that mRNA-based vaccines were first introduced during this pandemic (the second is Modern). Data from clinical trials to date suggest that these vaccines are more effective at inhibiting the spread of the coronavirus, are more effective against virus strains, and prevent the spread of the virus in the community.

The Sinopharm and Covishield vaccines, on the other hand, are based more on traditional methods and have been shown to be less effective.

So far, it is clear that although there is an increase in infections in the Seychelles, there are very few cases of people contracting a very serious form of the disease. “We have few people in intensive care units. Two out of forty (hospitalized) – during an interview on May 10. Seychelles President Wavel Ramkalawan said.” Vaccines protect people from severe symptoms.

But more answers are needed. So far, the country’s government has not revealed which vaccine was used in a third of the so-called breakthrough cases. Furthermore, no genome sequestration studies have been conducted to determine which strain of coronavirus predominates in Seychelles. It is true that in the first case identified in February, it was the South African variety that was identified.

May 13 Seychelles Public Health Commissioner Jude Gedeon said he intended to send the sample to the Kenya Medical Research Institute. The World Health Organization is also taking action.

“We are very concerned and we are sending a team of experts in various fields to help the Seychelles government deal with this situation,” said Richard Mihigo, spokesman for the WHO Regional Office for Africa in Brazzaville, Congo. “We are also talking with the local government about conducting a study on the effectiveness of vaccines.”

The situation in Seychelles also shows us once again that our understanding of public immunity, the theoretical limit at which the virus can no longer spread, continues to change. Researchers have previously considered that 55-82% of coronaviruses must be vaccinated or relieved to achieve such immunity. population.

However, 17 months after the start of the pandemic, it is now thought that this threshold may depend on the susceptibility of a particular population to certain strains, physical distance from people, the use of masks and other infection prevention measures. as well as the time of year. Like the epidemic, the situation tends to get worse when people spend more time indoors due to extremely cold or hot weather.

“It is unlikely that we will reduce the spread of the virus to zero or eradicate it completely,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Health Security Center in Baltimore. “Vaccines do what matters most to us now: they prevent serious diseases.”

Lessons from the Seychelles can be valuable to other countries when deciding which vaccines to buy.

“The most important thing is the quality and effectiveness of vaccines against the spread in your country,” said Glenda Gray, president of the Medical Research Council of the Republic of South Africa, who was one of the leaders in testing the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. . .

Seychelles Finance Minister Naadir Hassan, who was supposed to control 13 percent last year. Seychelles’ shrinking economy says the government cannot afford to stand by and do nothing and wait for answers to existing puzzles related to coronavir. According to him, the country is an “open and vulnerable economy.” “The country must be safe, the country must be open,” he said.

The vaccinated man died

A man vaccinated with two doses of the AstraZeneca version of the vaccine died of coronavirus in Seychelles on Thursday.

The 54-year-old man is the first person to be fully vaccinated in the country, dying from COVID-19, confirmed Jude Gedeon, the island state’s public health commissioner, at a press conference. It did not say how long ago the man was vaccinated and whether the case was being investigated by AstraZeneca.

Although 98 thousand. a country with a population has vaccinated a greater proportion of its population than any other, the number of cases has increased. This raises questions about the efficacy of vaccines with the increasing spread of COVID-19 strains. So far, 68% have been vaccinated with two doses of the vaccine. population of the country.

In Seychelles, almost everyone is vaccinated with the Sinopharm and Covishield vaccines. Covishield is a licensed version of the AstraZeneca vaccine manufactured in India. Although the government says that the Covishield vaccine in Seychelles is mostly left to people over the age of 60, in some cases it is still given to younger people.

The palm-fringed archipelago in the Indian Ocean sought to give its inhabitants immunity as soon as possible to open up to tourists vital to the state’s economy. The government said last month that unvaccinated citizens are six times more likely to develop COVID-19 than those vaccinated.

Although studies with the AstraZeneca vaccine have shown that it is almost 100% effective in preventing the death of most strains of COVID-19, its effectiveness in protecting against mild to moderate forms of the disease caused by the registered beta strain for the first time in the Republic of South Africa it is only 22%. This variety has also been found in Seychelles.

Deaths of fully vaccinated people have occurred elsewhere. June 3 Napa County in the United States reported that a fully vaccinated woman died more than a month after COVID-19 after the second dose of Moderna.

Although the number of cases in the Seychelles has declined since the initial peak in early May, it now remains stagnant.

“Unfortunately, the downward trend that we have seen since mid-May appears to have stabilized and the number of cases does not continue to decline,” Gedeon said.

“The spread within the country continues,” the official said, adding that movement and assembly restrictions could be tightened.

Gideon urged those who had not yet been vaccinated with the second dose to do so. Recently, 1,538 people did not receive a second dose of Covishield and 2,076 a second dose of Sinopharm at the scheduled time.

June 9 1,293 active cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Seychelles.

The government is considering a third dose of the population and is negotiating with Pfizer Inc. on the doses of the vaccine to be administered to adolescents in the country. In addition, the Russian Sputnik V vaccine has been introduced.



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